Pegasus Day 1/29 thread - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Robert Fischer · 01-28-2022, 02:58 PM

Knicks Go vs. Life is Good

good matchup. Good Pegasus/Donn card. Late Pick 5* is interesting.

The Rainbow-6 *'mandatory' day is apparently not until Sunday 1/30 according to David Aragona who did a great preview of the Stakes card above, so maybe that makes Sunday 'playable' as well.

Solid seasonal racing weekend, and an exciting matchup

Tom · 01-28-2022, 03:10 PM

After a month of Aquadrab, even GP looks good.
No interest in most of the races, but will be good some real horses for one day.

I like Fearless in the Fred Hooper, with Saffie's Officiating. He looks like they finally got his "dossage" figured out.

Mulerider · 01-28-2022, 03:14 PM

Read elsewhere that Jose Ortiz will replace Desormeaux on Stilleto Boy.

Robert Fischer · 01-28-2022, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Read elsewhere that Jose Ortiz will replace Desormeaux on Stilleto Boy.

https://twitter.com/DRFWelsch/status...34411908919297

aw man
that sucks (for his partner, Kent, and his fans)

azeri98 · 01-28-2022, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

aw man
that sucks (for his partner, Kent, and his fans)

The guy is a degenerate, has been for a long time. Showed up here at Woodbine drunk to ride.

zico20 · 01-28-2022, 05:55 PM

LIG is the faster horse and Ortiz needs to send him to the lead at all costs and force KG to chase him. Unless a suicidal speed duel develops where they go head and head through sub 1:10 there is no way any other horse has a chance to win. The rest of the field is terrible, however, someone has to be the key horse for 3rd or 4th, and I think it is Stilleto Boy. Sir Winston seems like he needs longer than this. After the top three, it is anyone's guess who will hit the board and also round out the Super Hi 5. If anyone is expecting the ML odds of 6-5 and 7-5 forget it. I see them going off at 4-5 and 1-1.

ALL

davew · 01-28-2022, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

After a month of Aquadrab, even GP looks good.
No interest in most of the races, but will be good some real horses for one day.

I like Fearless in the Fred Hooper, with Saffie's Officiating. He looks like they finally got his "dossage" figured out.

Aqueduct cancellation of Saturday card due to expected storm will definitely help Gulfstream handle.

affirmedny · 01-28-2022, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Read elsewhere that Jose Ortiz will replace Desormeaux on Stilleto Boy.

https://twitter.com/DRFWelsch/status...34411908919297

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...80.-2207520000..

Robert Fischer · 01-28-2022, 08:17 PM

whoever this "Craig Milkowski" guy is, he's pretty good

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Robert Fischer · 01-28-2022, 10:35 PM

r8 - Inside Info S.
8-6-5-2
Tricky race.
Either the

Just One Time runs to her full potential in the barn move up, or this could be relatively wide open. 6&5 have the style and talent.

r9 F&M Turf

Regal Glory is an A+
I think CJ has a nice pick here with the

as a price B.
4-8-9-1

r10 Hooper G3

and

chalky.
8 is best, pace could help the

if he can break and sit a trip.

could pick up some pieces
8-1-6-5

r11 Peagasus Turf

and

are my A's.

tries to wire here,

is IMO the best horse in the field.
With the low ml of the

I may do at least one ticket where this is more of a spread race.
8-12-9-6.

r12 Pegasus WC

Life is Good looked like a Triple Crown prospect at one point in the Baffert campaign. Winstar CHC and Pletcher never really lost a step even with the physical issues, and then the barn change. I've got Life is Good as my 'A' and the

Knicks Go as a 'B' for value, but they are both 'A's on most ticket structure.

Title Ready

Chess Chief

Stiletto Boy are all fine underneath
4-1-7-2

classhandicapper · 01-29-2022, 12:13 AM

I think LIG has more pure speed, but with Knicks Go on the rail and also sure to be sent, the relatively short run to the first turn may make it tough for LIG to clear him early. I also wonder whether the weakness of the rest of the field makes it more likely they go very fast early trying to get the lead. Both could be overconfident they have nothing behind them to worry about. That would make it more likely the pace is so extreme someone else does make a run. The break is going to be critical. I wish the field was deeper, but it’s still a matchup I can’t wait to see.

Spalding No! · 01-29-2022, 03:11 AM

Endorsed has a 7-2-2-0 record in two turn races on the dirt, including a pair of stakes placings. He was also a closing 4th in the 2019 Travers. Might have won the 2020 Westchester with a less stupid ride (and may not have been refashioned as a sprinter subsequently, either).

His two route wins were in allowance races; in both he caught a fast pace and looped the field. One of those was at Gulfstream Park.

Been working a hole in the wind since the Mr. Prospector.

acorn54 · 01-29-2022, 07:53 AM

looks like the live horses are given to the usual suspects, saez, ortiz brothers, and rosario. BORING.
only race i see up for grabs is race 9.

classhandicapper · 01-29-2022, 10:12 AM

I am thinking of using Stilleto Boy given he just turned 4, is still relatively lightly raced, has a generally improving pattern, and can probably sit in the second tier of horses off the pace. He seems to be the horse most likely to run a new top. So he might be able to pick up the loser of the pace battle for 2nd or both if they get crazy and melt down. But my Twitter timeline is full of people with similar thinking. So my guess is the price isn’t going to be what I want.

Robert Fischer · 01-29-2022, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think LIG has more pure speed, but with Knicks Go on the rail and also sure to be sent, the relatively short run to the first turn may make it tough for LIG to clear him early. I also wonder whether the weakness of the rest of the field makes it more likely they go very fast early trying to get the lead. Both could be overconfident they have nothing behind them to worry about. That would make it more likely the pace is so extreme someone else does make a run. The break is going to be critical. I wish the field was deeper, but it’s still a matchup I can’t wait to see.

Excellent point.

The run is short. If both are asked it would be close entering the turn even given that Life Is Good is quicker.
I also have a tiny bit of apprehension with Irad Ortiz up. Irad is probably the rider I rank highest in the game, even when Rosario is at peak popularity, even when Saez steps it up a notch for money meets etc... The only negative ever applied to Irad applies here -> His tendency to ride good/great horses conservatively.

I mean it's a strength and a weakness. He's a 'natural'. He lets a race unfold. He's intelligent. He gets a ton out of the horses. He understands herding and stretch battles. It's just that 'tactical', positional urgency... 'dictating the tactics' from the gate is not his calling card.
Maybe it's a bit unfair to say, and he's often riding standouts on the turf where getting them to run 'their race' is prioritized over controlling the tactical position? Anyway I guess my late-morning coffee is OK! So that's a slight added concern to your Gate-->1stTurn situation as well.

I still like Life is Good. I'd prefer to see LIG go wire-to-wire and take Knicks Go to deep waters. However they're both obviously G1 talents and standouts in the field.

Read some mentions of the Saudi Race - Actually thought Knicks Go ran 'fine' that day. The performance by Charlatan in that race was one of the highest ranking dirt races for me of the year/in-a-while. Charlatan only finished 2nd, but I thought he ran absolutely HUGE, and that Knicks Go ran 'fine' in spite of not contending for the win.
Mishriff(sp?) Ran well behind a dream setup and has been touted as one of the worlds top horses ever since. Winning is always considered better than losing, but I had Knicks Go roughly the same in performance as Mishriff there.

Jockeys? Rides?
- RACE 11 PWCTURF
Umberto Rispoli's ride on FIELD PASS last time was masterful. He completely stole that race. I prefer Sacred Life of the two as win contenders, and I don't see Field Pass being able to make the lead in here at any point today. It's possible that Field Pass will be able to obtain decent forward position if there becomes somewhat of a vacuum of pace after the 12.
Credit to Rispoli for that last ride.