Ever since the Derby Points system was put in place in 2012...

[BlueChip@DRF]

All the winners had something in common: they were all undefeated in their 3YO season.

Justify
Always Dreaming
Nyquist
American Pharoah
California Chrome
Orb
I'll Have Another

Yeah, it's a small sample size, but there seems to be a pattern emerging.

Candidate(s) for this year's top spot:

Essental Quality
Rock Your World
Helium


Exceptions:
2019 - Maximum Security (undefeated) (DQ'd)
2020 - the Derby was run later in the year when other 3YOs catch up to the early bloomers.

[Wiley]

Looks to me like they were all Grade 1 winners coming into the race too, so if you add that to the criteria you can eliminate Helium.

Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby winners dominate the list. I think Strike the Gold appears to be the last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby in 1991, so a strike against Essential Quality also.

[BlueChip@DRF]

But then a Bluegrass winner would be due, no?

[f2tornado]

Maximum Security* can be added there. Authentic** probably would have been undefeated if the race ran in May and Tiz the Law was undrafted if the exacta was flipped. The Derby winner was also in top 3 at every call the last seven years. Other types have hit the board however. Also, every winner came out of the SA, FL or Ark... and the Ark was really a SA based horse, excluding Country House*.

That leaves Rock Your World out of SA, Known Agenda out of FL, and Super Stock out of Ark. Rock Your Word is the only one of those three I can see being in the top three at all calls and he needs to step it up another notch to pull it off here. Perhaps we can finally break the merry go round streak this year. That would most likely need to happen for Known Agenda to win. I can certainly see Essential Quality ride close up and break the 14 year Bluegrass drought. He looks better than Good Magic and doesn't need to chase Justify next weekend.

[garywpt]

In the 8 years of the point system the top point earner only won the KY Derby
in the first 2 years -
In the last 6 years they ran 2nd, 4th, 19th, 13th, 3rd and Scratch

And Odds wise the last 8 winners had these odds 6-1, 8-1, 3-1, 5-1, 3-1
5-2, 5-2 & 5-1 (and the 8-1 was Max Security) that eliminates a lot

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

But then a Bluegrass winner would be due, no?

Yeah I guess you can say that, as I think at one time it was a solid Derby route to run through.

I know that there were many years, over that 30 years, of the super highway rail track bias that killed a lot of contenders chances, thinking of Sinister Minister, and then they also had the poly years, so that number is a bit misleading.
Street Sense lost by a nose or so on poly in '07 also if I remember correctly.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Maximum Security* can be added there. Authentic** probably would have been undefeated if the race ran in May and Tiz the Law was undrafted if the exacta was flipped. The Derby winner was also in top 3 at every call the last seven years. Other types have hit the board however. Also, every winner came out of the SA, FL or Ark... and the Ark was really a SA based horse, excluding Country House*.

That leaves Rock Your World out of SA, Known Agenda out of FL, and Super Stock out of Ark. Rock Your Word is the only one of those three I can see being in the top three at all calls and he needs to step it up another notch to pull it off here. Perhaps we can finally break the merry go round streak this year. That would most likely need to happen for Known Agenda to win. I can certainly see Essential Quality ride close up and break the 14 year Bluegrass drought. He looks better than Good Magic and doesn't need to chase Justify next weekend.

Would you eliminate Rock Your World since his last 3/8th is > :38?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Would you eliminate Rock Your World since his last 3/8th is > :38?

If the race had not been so speed oriented the past seven years then I'd exclude and let him beat me. Given his solid EP7 style, I simply cannot toss the Santa Anita Derby winning Raise A Native Buckpasser-x that easily. Do consider Big Brown made it look easy from the 20 hole with his 38.08 final 3/8th in FL Derby. He beat a very weak field but beat it nonetheless. Rock doesn't tower over this crew like Big Brown but would likely pay a lot better than Brown.

I'm basically using him as a defensive play. I'll probably have twice the gimmick betting units with EQ and KA on top. If one of those three doesn't win then neither do I unless I collect in the future pools.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

If the race had not been so speed oriented the past seven years then I'd exclude and let him beat me. Given his solid EP7 style, I simply cannot toss the Santa Anita Derby winning Raise A Native Buckpasser-x that easily. Do consider Big Brown made it look easy from the 20 hole with his 38.08 final 3/8th in FL Derby. He beat a very weak field but beat it nonetheless. Rock doesn't tower over this crew like Big Brown but would likely pay a lot better than Brown.

I'm basically using him as a defensive play. I'll probably have twice the gimmick betting units with EQ and KA on top. If one of those three doesn't win then neither do I unless I collect in the future pools.

Yeah, I hear you. The E/P 7s have been dominating. That would actually be the first thing I would look for before going to the stats.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Looks to me like they were all Grade 1 winners coming into the race too, so if you add that to the criteria you can eliminate Helium.

Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby winners dominate the list. I think Strike the Gold appears to be the last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby in 1991, so a strike against Essential Quality also.

Total agreement. Something I like too. I like value , I take losses just to make a score. If I can get a price on the Fla derby winner or the SA derby winner. It’s worth a shot. The recent history is too good. These races have been standing up in the 3 yo class for a while now. Until that changes it can’t be denied..... if your getting paid.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

All the winners had something in common: they were all undefeated in their 3YO season.

Justify
Always Dreaming
Nyquist
American Pharoah
California Chrome
Orb
I'll Have Another

Yeah, it's a small sample size, but there seems to be a pattern emerging.

Candidate(s) for this year's top spot:

Essental Quality
Rock Your World
Helium


Exceptions:
2019 - Maximum Security (undefeated) (DQ'd)
2020 - the Derby was run later in the year when other 3YOs catch up to the early bloomers.

There were at least 14 other horses who were undefeated as 3 year-olds since the point system was instituted.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by depalma113

There were at least 14 other horses who were undefeated as 3 year-olds since the point system was instituted.

Yes, but it does narrow down the field a lot on who to put on top.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Yes, but it does narrow down the field a lot on who to put on top.

I'll Have Another was before the points system.

After the points system was introduced, the highest odds on an undefeated horse during their 3 year-old season was 41-1 Fast and Accurate. Every other horse was 13-1 or less.

So you are basically getting the favorites with this angle.