4.5 furlong races

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

Loved playing the 4,5 furlong races at old Jefferson Downs in NOLA, Ricky Faul or John Herdes fighting for the lead.

I was there with buddies on most summer nights during the 80's. I will add Mario Torres, Kelly Broussard Jr, Tracy Hebert and Nelson Menard (he was an especially good gate rider) to your list. I think Hye Dickran and Eustoo were a couple of burners there, maybe held the 4.5 and 6.5 F race records. Loved the two turn 6.5 F races as well, probably better at those in picking winners than the 4.5 F races.

[shoelessjoe]

I used to do very well at Charles Town this was before the
casino and the the purses were low. Now with the purses higher I have
trouble due to the shippers coming in and how to gauge them.

[shoelessjoe]

Wiley

Was Charlie Walker stabled there back then? He used to be one of the
leading trainers at Charles Town but left on bad terms and went down
that way. I loved the combo of him with Troy Roberts as his jockey good
gate boy.

[Wiley]

Shoelessjoe,
No Cracker Walker ran the Fairgrounds/Louisiana Downs circuit. He might of on occasion, brought a horse in for a stakes at JD but he was not stabled there.

One of my favorite trainers at the FG's. Ronald Ardoin was he go to rider, he was also a great gate rider. Remember Scottie Will was a horse Walker claimed and won a couple of small stakes at the FG's with. Fun times.

[shoelessjoe]

Wiley your right thanks

CJ thanks for the breakdown

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would love to build a model broken into two ratings "speed" and "stamina".

I want to know who is the fastest horse for around 4 furlongs and who has the most stamina.

Then I want to know whether today's conditions (distance, surface, bias, pace, competitive setup) favor one or the other and to what degree.

But stamina is a tricky thing to measure because it involves both how far the horse can run and remain competitive and the quality of the horses it can do it against. It also sometimes requires seeing how it performs in a really tough highly competitive and demanding race.

Speed can also be tricky because on turf, many horses are doing their fastest running at the end, but those last quarters are partially related to the early pace.

If I understand you right, you're saying that "stamina" is how far they can continue the ... something.

How would we define that "something?"

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

If I understand you right, you're saying that "stamina" is how far they can continue the ... something.

How would we define that "something?"

I'll try to explain it.

For early speed I'm asking, if 2 horses give me their best out of the gate for 3-4 furlongs, which one is faster?

For stamina I'm asking, if this is a very demanding racetrack or the race development is very demanding which of these horses is going to handle it the best and keep running well at the end.

The first one is fairly straight forward. I can use pace figures, how often the horse gets the lead, the quality of horses has he outrun, how hard has he been used to get the lead etc.. I think I can turn that into some kind of number without too much of a problem.

When it comes to stamina maybe it's some combination of distance, class, and performance against tough trips, but I'm not sure how to turn it into a number.

Closing speed on turf in another toughie because the early pace/closing time formula isn't very obvious either. The faster they go early, the slower they'll come home and vice versa, but it's not a 1 to 1 relationship. 1 second faster early does not mean 1 second slower late or vice versa.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by cj

I could, and it almost assuredly be very good. But I find this of little value. The value is in predicting which horses will be first early and seeing how they do.

So true. And I 've read that proponents of speed-point systems profit from the "universal bias, " but my gut says it is leaders that didn't project to lead that drive the ROI up.

Also, I've learned that early speed is surprisingly often a by product of sharp form or innate superiority, rather than an intrinsic trait. Plus, lots of horses change running styles (and not always in accordance with distance or strategy) from season to season, or even within the same campaign.

And how about the "super trainer" factor? In many instances, the horses they improve on become front runners despite having no such history.

Thanks for posting the stats. It's been awhile since I profiled a track or saw up-to-date numbers on the strike rate of first call leaders. Maybe I misremember, but the win rate seems higher than 10 or 15 years ago. Could this be attributable to diminishing field sizes?

[cj]

Originally Posted by mountainman

So true. And I 've read that proponents of speed-point systems profit from the "universal bias, " but my gut says it is leaders that didn't project to lead that drive the ROI up.

Also, I've learned that early speed is surprisingly often a by product of sharp form or innate superiority, rather than an intrinsic trait. Plus, lots of horses change running styles (and not always in accordance with distance or strategy) from season to season, or even within the same campaign.

And how about the "super trainer" factor? In many instances, the horses they improve on become front runners despite having no such history.

Thanks for posting the stats. It's been awhile since I profiled a track or saw up-to-date numbers on the strike rate of first call leaders. Maybe I misremember, but the win rate seems higher than 10 or 15 years ago. Could this be attributable to diminishing field sizes?

No problem.

I do think field size is a factor for sure. I broke this down by field size once and it played out as expected regardless of distance and surface.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

But stamina is a tricky thing to measure because it involves both how far the horse can run and remain competitive and the quality of the horses it can do it against. It also sometimes requires seeing how it performs in a really tough highly competitive and demanding race.

I think the elusive quality "stamina" would be very difficult to boil down to a number. Certainly, pace and class play a role, as does distance. But the distance factor can be tricky because it is inter-dependent on pace, and what truly distinguishes the differences between distances is often field composition, rather than furlongs covered. And field composition strongly relates to and determines early position.

To me, stamina ties in closely with the will to win and compete. Sometimes, no matter the distance, certain horses will habitually "hang," and you can almost SEE them flinch in the late stages when abreast another runner.

Records with a disproportionate number of minor placings often indicate a lack of stamina. Or heart, or both. In those cases less distance can be the cure.

I have also observed that smooth movers often possess more stamina than their rocky counterparts.

For these reasons, and more, i find personal observation and intimate knowledge of a horse indispensable in assessing stamina.

Incidentally, the trap novice, and even intermediate, players usually fall into is conflating stamina with running style. The immortal Dr Fager and his arch rival Damascus exemplified this in historic fashion. No less an authority than Tom Ainslie expressed surprise in one of his books that Dr Fager could actually get 1 and a quarter miles, but failed to observe that which of the two displayed superior "stamina" depended almost entirely on pace and flow.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Incidentally, the trap novice, and even intermediate, players usually fall into is conflating stamina with running style. The immortal Dr Fager and his arch rival Damascus exemplified this in historic fashion. No less an authority than Tom Ainslie expressed surprise in one of his books that Dr Fager could actually get 1 and a quarter miles, but failed to observe that which of the two displayed superior "stamina" depended almost entirely on pace and flow.

This is exactly what I'm getting at.

In terms of speed, imo there's little doubt Fager was faster than Damascus. I would argue that Damascus had more natural stamina. If they went far enough, my guess is that even controlling the pace may not have helped Fager.

They were different horses with a different balance of each. Which of them won was dependent on the distance, how the race developed, how the track was playing etc..

Another theoretical example might be Fager and Slew.

I think Fager was probably a little faster than Slew too, but we saw the kind of stamina Slew had in the JCGC where he dealt with an extreme pace, kept running, and was actually coming again at 12F. I doubt Fager could have dealt with that pace and kept going at 12F. Slew was freakish in that he a huge abundance of both.

But converting these "stamina" type questions into a number, putting it next to "speed" number, and then asking who has the better balance for today's race given the distance, how the track is playing, and how the race sets up is hard if you don't have a stamina number.

[classhandicapper]

All of this gets me back to these 4.5 races.

We know that speed is super dominant in these short dashes. So if you had a speed number and stamina number, you could focus more attention on the speed number. If it was a 7F dirt race on a tiring tack in a race loaded with speed, you might focus more attention on the stamina side than you would normally.

[Tom]

You mean a number like CJ's Early and Late Pace numbers?

[FoolishPleasure]

IMO a big key is 4.5f early speed is 4.5f early speed-
early speed at 5f or longer need not apply.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

You mean a number like CJ's Early and Late Pace numbers?

CJ's Early and Late Pace figures are very good, but they are measuring early and late speed, not stamina. It's this 3rd category that is a little fuzzy in my thinking.

There are horses that will have terrific late pace numbers, but if you stretch them out another furlong or two they can't finish because they don't have the stamina to finish fast after running a little further.