Class

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

That seems to me to be more of an ability rating, but it is very interesting nonetheless. Thanks for sharing.

I would have to agree too....

But interesting......

Thx Pogo.....

Would you have any stats ? or maybe a race or 2 that it helped you win?

Mike

[shoelessjoe]

Thanks Pogo

[classhandicapper]

It might be worthwhile to try to define "class". Here's my current thinking.

1. Speed - This is how fast a horse can run from between 2F-4F if it's going close to all out

2. Stamina - How far a horse can run and maintain the same level of performance from distance to distance

3. Class - Reserve racing energy to overcome tougher conditions like a faster than average pace, competitive duel, wide trip, mild bias etc.. and still get the job done. The ability to accelerate when needed, dig down deep at the end when nothing else will get the job done etc... IMO is mostly physical ability because it's also competitiveness.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

I would have to agree too....

But interesting......

Thx Pogo.....

Would you have any stats ? or maybe a race or 2 that it helped you win?

Mike

I've programmed this to be computed through data files. It seems to do okay. My early look suggests that it is no better and no worse than many other speed ability ratings. But I have only checked it against about a dozen races.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I've programmed this to be computed through data files. It seems to do okay. My early look suggests that it is no better and no worse than many other speed ability ratings. But I have only checked it against about a dozen races.

Only 12 races....are you crazy.....you'll get hammered on here for that


Need at least 1,000,000 to be a reasonable amount

[mountainman]

Thoroughbreds are so increasingly fragile nowadays, and freakish performances so transient, that class takes a backseat in my handicapping (GOD, I hate to use that pompous word).

A profusion of hybrid race-conditions, created to combat a horse shortage by blending categories, further blurs the "class" factor. Form cycles and soundness issues also render current-class hard to pinpoint.

When I do consider "class," most often it's from a negative perspective as I'm intent on finding signs (the more subtle the better when it comes to value) that some well-bet entrant has deteriorated in terms of quality.

And to me, that leads to THE most profound uncertainty in racing, one that we can form (somewhat educated) guesses about-but NEVER address with certainty: In what instances does deteriorating performance indicate a horse will never regain top previous form?

One avenue of insight lies in the itinerary-the spacing and placements of a horse's races. And that's something I DO factor into predicting performance: the trainer's (apparent) evaluation of his runner's "class."

From a practical standpoint, there just is rarely an applicable "template," or hierarchy of race-types reflective of "class."

Look sometime at an Mvr nw1x. You well may see a recent msw winner, a streaking cross-over from the str/alw ranks, an accomplished mid-range claimer, and one or two horses exiting allowance/ optional clmrs. Not to mention an ohio bred, or several, that have climbed higher through the restricted program. Sure, there can be preferred profiles and guidelines in certain race-types, but in the end it comes down to your knowledge of how tough certain races came up , your skill in assessing performance, and how accurate your opinion of a horse is.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Only 12 races....are you crazy.....you'll get hammered on here for that


Need at least 1,000,000 to be a reasonable amount

Yep, but I did reveal that it is a very preliminary impression. I have the calculation as part of my long-term output, so I will continue to see whether it has merit.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Yep, but I did reveal that it is a very preliminary impression. I have the calculation as part of my long-term output, so I will continue to see whether it has merit.

Will you compare it to something else that can gauge its performance?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Will you compare it to something else that can gauge its performance?

Probably. I try to look at stuff several different ways so that I can try to see if any seem to be phoney for a particular horse. With the beaten lengths factored in on this one, I think it may have more variance.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Probably. I try to look at stuff several different ways so that I can try to see if any seem to be phoney for a particular horse. With the beaten lengths factored in on this one, I think it may have more variance.