TCB Blood files for 2009 Crop

[Blenheim]

I read and reread your work and the articles at the links and found the XFactor (XF) stuff rather fascinating.
~
Just for the fun of it I took a look at the four stallions, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud, in the pedigrees of El Padrino and Z Dager. I found a total of 30 incidences in the lineage of El Padrino and 12 incidences in the lineage of Z Dager. Now I'm no pedigree expert, but I do understand that in order to pass on the XF, that stallion must be in a "passing position." If you have the time, put your pedigree eye on those two and tell me what you think. Do either of those two runners possess the XF?


It was fun to get away from the handicapping stuff and take a look at the pedigree stuff. If you have the time take at look at those two and tell me what you think, yea or nea , X or nonX. Now back to the handicappin!

Nothin like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth!

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I read and reread your work and the articles at the links and found the XFactor (XF) stuff rather fascinating.
~
Just for the fun of it I took a look at the four stallions, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud, in the pedigrees of El Padrino and Z Dager. I found a total of 30 incidences in the lineage of El Padrino and 12 incidences in the lineage of Z Dager. Now I'm no pedigree expert, but I do understand that in order to pass on the XF, that stallion must be in a "passing position." If you have the time, put your pedigree eye on those two and tell me what you think. Do either of those two runners possess the XF?


It was fun to get away from the handicapping stuff and take a look at the pedigree stuff. If you have the time take at look at those two and tell me what you think, yea or nea , X or nonX. Now back to the handicappin!

Nothin like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth!

I started putting the 6 generation pedigrees with the x trail built in. With the boys the stallion is discounted and only the dam is looked at. The names that are underlined are x trails in passing position. After looking I stand corrected
Here are the x trails I have so far. When I look at the x factor on the bottom I then look at the 2nd quarter to see if the x factor genes are either inbred, linebred or replicated. So If you look at Alpha say look at his x trail then look at Beranrdini's dam to see how the lines compare. I also look more at building a family tree from the 5th dam and look at how the sire line has crossed on the family itself. I feel that saying such and such a stallion crosses well on this such broodmare line discounts the quality of the family in general. Lets face it and I have been thinking about this, pedigree is only as good as the people taking care of the horse. I think so much of the success of the big three foundation mare sires had a lot to do with nuture. Huge sprawling farms where yearlings built themselves up running with their peers fo equal quality of pedigree. Old timey horsemanship vs hot house yearlings. I digress HAving tried to dowmload the reports the x factor is propiertary to my software and cannot be reproduced but when you go to pedigree query just look at those lines that are pink.
Follow the dam and look for the underlined pedigrees. And you dont have to count occurences if you look at the pedigree analysis. It is broken down by percent inhererit inheritances and the 7m would mean 7th genreation male.
Hope this helps.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Will break down top contenders for the big races as individuals (it is much easier to put in attachments. Since El Padrino is the buzz horse lets look at him
Ell Padrino - By Pulpit out of Enchanted Rock by Giant's Causeway
Bred by the good breeder Emory Hamilton (" Other top horses raced include Too Chic, Queena's dam; La Reina and Serra Lake ... Other notable horses bred include Cappuchino, Pin Stripe and Coal Play ... Purchased her first horse – Too Chic – as a yearling at a King Ranch dispersal in 1980 following the death of her grandfather in 1974 ... She paid $100,000 for the filly ... Both Too Chic and Queena won the G1 Maskette ... Another of Too Chic's daughters, G1 winner Chic Shirine, produced G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma"). Wondering why Hamilton sold this one? Pletcher got a deal? Well the dam Enchanted Rock was unplaced in 1 start and looks to be the weaker of her sisters. El Padrino is first foal to make the races and I imagine dams stock has went up immensely.
Pulpit looks to be forming his own branch of the AP Indy line. What I have noticed about the Pulpits is that they perform well early on in the TC trail but yet to find one with the moxie to wear the roses. IMHO prone to leg problems as their sheer speed may be more than their body can handle. Pulpit himself locked like an early Derby winner before getting missing the big bance. Maybe the line is jinxed but I feel is has to do with being early matures and being asked to much to soon.
El Padrino won his last race impressively to the highly regarded Take Charge Indy. After that horse he beat no one. His Beyer was one of the best of the year though for this crop.
Pro's- Is peaking at the right time to make this class move. Has right connections and Castellano ships for this. While I think this horse will move forward today, he is going to be pushed to make the graded earnings list. A win today and huge effort is necessary to move towards Louisville. How he will handle the pressure of a new track, better horses and that long stretch at the FG are really the gamble here. The horse is talented and looks to have a bright future
Cons- Call me crazy but I don't like the fact that Emory sold this one. Mare is light on race record and while family is one of the better at producing fillies that run The best male runner is Soaring Empire and his record while good is a notch below his peers and his record for putting back to back races is bad.
Looking at his pedigree he is light on solid and professional influences. I am also not a big fan of inbreeding to Mr Prospector so close. If El Padrino turns out on the left front leg then he is a real Mr Prospector and while brilliant they just don't last.
Synopsis- I like his chances to run a big race, but will find out his true mettle when faced with the daunting stretch with a rider who is not really known for riding the FG.
Welcome any comments and the opinions are my own based on my own research and correct me if I am wrong please. See my reports below.
Will have more to come

I've been reading your stuff with interest and find it curious that you and I get a lot of the same results through an entirely different process.
As was said in the Sartin book, I reduce everything to it's simplest form. I look at the forest and am not interested in the study of individual trees.

I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts.

Now the reason I'm posting is that I totally agree with your assessment of EL Padrino. Here are some others with what I call the same type pedigree; Alpha, Currency Swap, Exfactor, Hansen, Hierro, Managed Account and Reveron.

I find that this type can be very good up to 1 1/8 but have never seen one win the Derby or Belmont. They just lack stamina and there's a reason for it in my book but I won't go into it now. Alpha however, has a positive factor that may negate the weakness in these pedigrees and so far has looked good. Whether he can get a classic distance remains to be seen but I feel sure none of the others will.

PS- I also like the old time breeding of Z Dager having seen a few of the oldtimers in there run. I was really surprised to see him as close to the pace as he was last time.

Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps.

Nice thread you have going.

[turninforhome10]

"Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps."

Agreed in spades. So much pressure on the young horses built on glass foundations to perform each prep to the highest ability to get to the big dance.
So much of that brilliant blood is hard to keep fit and sound.Hard to get them fit for the distance without worrying about something rattling loose. I also look for soundness as observed by starts for the female families. Seeing horses with 50+ starts in family is always good regardless of class. I feel this has much to do with passing on confrimation.
I will never forget the words of a vet I used to work with. He had the chance to work with Mr Prospector and his offspring while a student. He always said" A Mr Prospector with good confrimation is worthless. All of his best are turned out on the left front and that is the tell"

[turninforhome10]

"I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts."

After rereading this and reading your blog, It looks like your knowledge is pretty stout. Trying to understand what you mean by the strange part. Looking at a pedigree for only a few minutes and making a decision comes from years of understanding how the lines are put together. Breeders names etc, understanding age differences between parents to see at what point of the stallions career did the breeding take place. Mares get bred to high dollar stallions for 3 reasons Race record Family or foolish owners with more money than sense. I look back deep into the female line and look at the owners and what they did with it. Would love to see any examples of horses that you have advised on the breeding to see what your ideas are. Thanks for the input.

[turninforhome10]

I have debated all week on how to present something informative, easy to read, and not to crazy on the pedigree info as to dilute the real horse in question. All while working on a slow 256mb machine that is absolutely killing ever inch of patience I own but my old software and DB are very difficult to move and god forbid I would ever loose it. Enough about that. I am going to break down the races by concentrating on those horses which IMHO have a chance to move forward. On more than one occasion, I have typed in all the horses from the EFW and that is no longer and option as I would rather pay for it.

Lets go racing

Saturday will bring us the Risen Star. Never been a fan of horses that use the FG early preps as a path to the Derby. The Risen Star has not produced a Derby winner using data going back to 1973. Is this relevant to this year? We will see.
$300,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II, Race 11, 4:55 p.m.), 3YOs, 1 1/16 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Afford (KY), S Bridgmohan, 116, G Geier Homebred for Tafel who won Derby with Sire Street Sense. Liked the long stretch at Haw and showed promise going two turns last time. Dont know if he is of classic quality yet but aspirations are high. Tafel bred dam who was placed at 3. Interesting though is the second dam White Jasmine inbred to the matron Padilla perfectly through x trail. Look at this produce record. Would love a mare like this. http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/white+jasmine
This one looks for a N2x later I believe as the rail does not help. Goes as fast and far possible but lacks seasoning.

2. Optimizer (KY), C H Marquez Jr., 116, D W Lukas Lukas with another morning glory Why the rider switch Maybe after getting routed here Lukas will ship to GP for the FLA Derby and have a rider ready to go. (Sarcasm)
3. a-Mr. Bowling (KY), R Albarado, 120, J L Jones I am really having a hard time getting over his pedigree. Poor quality and very short. See below. IMHO this one served the purpose of selling early seasons to Istan, for owner and will be dropping out of contention after this. Watch for him at Delaware later this year. Sorry Larry.
4. Z Dager (KY), S J Sellers, 116, S M Asmussen I have pretty much broken him down earlier in the thread. 116 and jock who's career needs this horse to carry him to Louisville. Should move forward here and I hope Sellers can get this to Churchill.
5. Ted's Folly (OK), R Zimmerman, 120, W L Brown Asking way to much from this guy and squeezing the lemon dry.
6. b-Adena's Chance (FL), R E Eramia, 116, G Dorochenko 3k sale horse has returned for owner but not today
7. b-Hero of Order (KY), J Graham, 116, G Dorochenko See above for same comment
8. El Padrino (KY), J Castellano, 116, T A Pletcher All eyes on this guy as Pletcher has to prove that last was no fluke. See earlier in the thread for info.
Will know more about this one at the 1/8th pole of a long stretch
9. a-Mark Valeski (KY), R Napravnik, 116, J L Jones This might be the sleeper for Larry While his pedigree looks plain on the top Proud Citizen is from the female family of Northern Dancer has produced Proud Spell for Jones and Breton. What impresses me most is the lineage of his female family. A Whitney family that is truly native to America family A1. Goes back to Man o War and Mahmoud through females and the names are the best sires money could buy. Farnsworth were no dummies when they bought the 2 dam See record http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/true+to+romeo. This is the first foal bred from the Mr Prospector sire line and 1 to 3 quarter with a 3x4m should not bother soundness. This is Jones Derby horse and the 112 blowout is affirmation that Larry has a sound one that will take the training necessary for this long drive to CD.
10. Shared Property (KY), L R Goncalves, 120, T M Amoss . I just don't see Amoss with a real Derby threat this year. Will look forward to his expertise on TVG
11. Tizanexpense (KY), M Mena, 116, M J Maker 45k buyback is being asked to do a lot here. Did move forward against winners but this is a big jump a would need to overcome post and lack of seasoning. I would look for this guy at TP later with the Tiznow.
a - Brereton C. Jones coupled entry
b - Gennadi & Irina Dorochenko coupled entry

My picks

Will try to bust of the other big races as I get time. FOY is huge and almost a spoiler for the Derby. Good Cappin

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1nHbdDt6I

[turninforhome10]

Realized the above is numbered by Post Position not program number. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[turninforhome10]

The Risen Star went as expected. Was impressed with the grit of the top two as they had their won little match race in the stretch. I see a bright future for Mark Valeski and Larry is just the guy to get him there. El Padrino ran a big race and showed he belongs but I feel he is still second string for Pletcher. I am still having trouble validating anyoone from the LA series as most have done poorly in the Derby. LA Derby next and I expect Mark to be there. Pletchers horse has earnings now and we will see how he juggles this one. Z Dager was pretty much out of contention at the top of the stretch but ran on well for third. Expect him back for the LA Derby as he needs earnings. on to the FOY. Have not followed the horses in the Borderland so would not do it justice.

STAKES
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (Grade II)
Purse $400,000. (Plus $100,000 – FTBOA - FL TB Owner Brdr Assoc Fund). For Three Year Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
P#PPHorseVirtual
StableA/SMedJockeyWgtTrainerM/L
11Neck 'n Neck (KY) 3/CLJ Lezcano116I R Wilkes15/1
22Algorithms (KY) 3/CLJ Castellano120T A Pletcher8/5
33Fort Loudon (FL) 3/CLR Maragh120S I Gold20/1
44Casual Trick (KY) 3/RLC S Nakatani116N P Zito8/1
55Discreet Dancer (FL) 3/CLJ R Velazquez116T A Pletcher3/1
66News Pending (KY) 3/CLK J Desormeaux116D L Romans20/1
77Union Rags (KY) 3/CLJ R Leparoux122M R Matz2/1
88Csaba (KY) 3/CLP Lopez116P A Gleaves20/1 Owners: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Starlight Racing; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm, Inc.; 4 - Robert V. LaPenta; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stables, LLC; 6 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and William H. Lawrence; 7 - Chadds Ford Stable; 8 - Bruce Hollander and Cary Shapoff
Breeders: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Oakbrook Farm; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm Inc.; 4 - W. S. Farish; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stable, LLC; 6 - Jayde, Inc; 7 - Phyllis M. Wyeth; 8 - Kenneth L. Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey
Equipment Changes: 1 - Neck 'n Neck - Blinkers On
PPS http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_763079.pdf

The road starts her for the highly touted Union Rags, does he have to win? NO Does he need a big effort? YES. Is he going to be challenged? YES This is the toughest oif the preps so far IMHO.
1 Neck n Neck While his finishings have not garnered him but one win he always makes that late run. Not sure what the blinkers are gonna do here but Lezcano has project going here and the horse has been getting better LP figures each race. This looks to be this one's last chance and Wilkes is pulling out all the stops. While Storm Boot shortens him up his deeper family includes Broad Brush, Roberto, and Key To the Mint. I don't like him to fill and exacta but he is deperate for graded earnings and Jose sticks. Exotic chance if the pace is a meltdown.
2Algorithms- Have worked up his pedigree earlier to start the thread. While his race in the Holy Bull was good effort. He made his move early and once passed Hansen he was home free. Will understand his heart a little more today as he does not get such an easy trip. Still has yet to find a bottom and I feel this one is Pletcher's best bet to get another Derby win. Notice I said Pletcher's best chance. Should run big today and will need to look someone in the eye at the 1/8th and pass them to prove he has moxie as he has talent.
3) Fort Loudon- Gold is pushing it with this one. He is a nice animal but what do you do with him. Does he belong. IMHO no. But he is three and is a male so connections take thier best shot. Would look for FLA breds later at Calder. Beat Argentine Tangotwice and that one was soundly beaten again the other day.
4) Casual Trick- Johhny V is gone and throw out last. Nakatani will ride this one aggressive and Zito has him cranked up. Do or Die and has stout pedigree with Manilla and Charlottesville in female line. Will look to hang on for a piece but running style is redundant in here and not liking his chances to improve enough for win. Does like a one turn mile but has yet to run a classy one at two turns. GP Derby was good but field was nothing like today. Would look for this one to be a one turn miler.
5) Discreet Dancer-Has done everything right so far all at one turn. Can he stretch out? 1/2 brother to Travelin Man, I say no He is fast as proven by Track Record but is one dimentional IMHO. Female family of AP Indy and Summer Squall and boasts some nice inbreeding including the 1/2 sisters Bold Sequence and Gold Digger. Has the right pedigree but needs to show ability to rate.
6) News Pending. Switches to Kent D after big close on the weeds. Not convinced this one like the dirt as evidenced by his one the lead 2nd at Bel last fall. Raconteur who ran 3rd in that race has turned out to be nice horse but would like to see Rajiv stay to finish teaching this one. Looks like the turf races were teaching races but numbers are a bit low for the win. Chance for exotics with a patient ride.
7) Union Rags. Can he beat these off the shelf? Was his 2yo year for real? Wwill find out today. I have looked at this one earlier in the tread. Horse is working like a monster but he really does not have to be pushed to hard here as he has the earnings. Destroyed Alpha in the Champagne and then made a big run at Hansen only to come up short in the BC JUV. Will need to prove that he has more than a middle move and will need to improve on the LP side. Top 3 finish but does not need to win. Iffy call.
8)Csaba- Thank you Mr Gleaves for helping to fill the race but is way overmatched here. I don't see it happening but takes a shot. Nothing to really recommend on pedigree other than going back to Discovery but Kitten's Joy over War Chant is grass IMHO

My picks


Comments are always welcome and if you want a horse looked at just yell and I will try and get it out there for you. and good cappin.

[redshift1]

We are close I've got:

2,5,7

[turninforhome10]

Algorithms Out of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth
02/26/2012

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – Starlight Racing’s Algorithms, the 8-5 favorite in today’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, has been scratched from the race due to a popped splint in his right front leg.

“The colt has been training beautifully,” said trainer Todd Pletcher in a statement. “It’s an unfortunate situation. We’ll monitor him closely and see how he responds.”

[turninforhome10]

With the defection of Algorithms, I will have to think this dramatically change the chances for Discreet Dancer to pull a wire job.

Popping a splint sucks, requires a lot of attention from your leg man and while most heal with no more problem they are a pain in the a--.
My revised picks
with hanging on for 3rd and 4th.
Good cappin

[Blenheim]

Looks like the Fountain of Youth is gonna be a good one but I don't think it is gonna be the thriller we saw yesterday in the Risen Star. Guess we'll see.
~
Lot to cover in this post. I’ll try to make it short so I'll get to it. First, turninforhome, you missed the tri by a head bob - them kind are pretty tough to lose - good cappin'; redshift1 you had the first two, did well yesterday, we'll see what y'all have for em' today. Couple of comments on the race. Nice ride by the jockey of the , perfect timing and damn near had it - will she be the first woman to win the Kentucky Derby? And El Padrino, all class. If you want to know how good he really is take a look at the top categories in the pace parameters: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2012_derby_pace_parameters.htm . That one had to take something out of him . . . fortunately he possesses the courage and resilience of youth. Gotta be considered the Derby favorite. It’ll be interesting to see where they run him next, looks like the Louisiana, maybe the Wood.

In the Fountain of Youth, small field so nada excuses. Considering he has annexed the Holy Bull, the Hutcheson and the Risen Star, kinda hard to bet against Mr. Pletcher. Let them say I lived in the time of Todd Pletcher. However, his horse shows a break in his workout pattern - he missed a work between 30 January and 13 February, might not mean much, might mean everything. And Union Rags, don’t think his works indicate he is in this race to win and interviews with the trainer indicate as much. Casual Trick is ranked as an elite two-year-old and stumbled at start in last over a sealed surface. Gets a jock switch and two strong works, same sire line as the winner of the Holy Bull, Hutcheson and the Risen Star.





Best of racin' luck.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Fountain of Youth.

[turninforhome10]

Sorry for the absence as with the nice score at GP in the Pick 4 weekend before last I was getting some things done with some software I picked up (Office). Was moving things into excel and it was time consuming. Anyway back to the matter at hand, Pedigrees and the Derby.
A New Chapter.
Sometimes a moment that would otherwise be meaningless to most, killing time waiting for my daughter and needing a book to read, I stumbled on something that very much will change how I look at pedigrees in the future.
While waiting for my daughter to get changed into her marble playing jammies,I picked up Thoroughbred Champions Top 100 Racehorse of the 20th Century. Read the book enough that is worn and burned into memory, a must have for any race fan. For the very first time I actually noticed the pedigrees of these great animals. I was shocked, dazed and ready to give up everything I thought I knew about analysis of a pedigree.
The Facts
Of the top 100 racehorses of the 20th century only 35 carried any inbreeding\linebreeding through 4 generations. This mean 2/3 of the greatest were an outcross through 4 gens.
Those who produced.
Count Fleet- Inbred Reigh Count 3f,3f x (3x3 on top) Only Sire line to produce 3 generations of KY Derby winners.
Buckpasser- Teddy 3mx3f (La Troienne tail female Teddy mare)
Seattle Slew-Nasrullah 3mx3f
Alydar- Bull Lea x3f,3f Calumet matron mares.
Blue Larkspur- Padua (Mare) 3fx3f linebred tail female
Ruffian- Discovery 3fx4f (tail female). Discovery is tops. What could have been.
Busher- Sweep 3fx4f
Those who failed to reproduce themselves
Gallant Man- Inbred Mah Iran and Mahmoud 3/4 siblings 2fx2m
Sea Biscuit- Rock Sand 3f,2fx
Lady's Secret- Nearco 4mx4m
Spectacular Bid- To Market 3fx3f
Gallant Bloom-See Gallant Man
Affectionately-War Admiral 4fx3f
Lure- Native Dancer 4fx4m
Bewitch- Peter Pan x3f,3f
Bayakoa- Nasullah 4m,4mx4m
Exceller- Nasrullah 3fx3m,3f
Alysheba- Nasrullah 3mx3m

Drawing conclusions from the above data
Not one of those greats that reproduced themselves had any inbreeding to males in the first 4 generations.
Of those that failed to reproduce themselves, the mares outweigh the stallions.
For you pedigree nerds is this not pretty significant in that 2/3 of the top 100 are outcrosses?
Drawing data know for how this effects the Derby and look for trends in the Derby data. Lots to look at and will put the 40 horses listed on the Derby future book through the software and see what we can gather from that.
Any thoughts?

[nijinski]

I look at mare's like Lady's Secret and I see the pattern of giving up the progeny's chance of carrying on her greatness for the sake of profit.
Most of her female foals or yearlings were sold to Japan . This happened over and over with some of our finest .

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by nijinski

I look at mare's like Lady's Secret and I see the pattern of giving up the progeny's chance of carrying on her greatness for the sake of profit.
Most of her female foals or yearlings were sold to Japan . This happened over and over with some of our finest .

After looking at Lady's Secret's produce record, I had her confused with Genuine Risk. Lady's Secret did have a decent produce record and you are right. Most of the offspring were sold off during the Japanese raids of the late 80's.