Holy Bull discussion

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by raybo

Unless I think one of them will move below 5/2 after they enter the gate, then I would just bet the other 2 horses. If there are 3 at or above 5/2, and I think they will all go off at that or higher, yes I will bet all 3.

5/2 odds gets me a small profit (at a $2 bet, 5/2 pays $7 and only $6 would be bet total, so I make a slight profit if the 5/2 wins). If the other 2 are higher odds and either wins then I make a larger profit.

Win bets are only cash flow support for my superfecta play, so I'm not looking to make a killing with my win bets.

So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?

[nomadpat]

I'm going with Intense Holiday. Thought he shied a little from Wicked Strong in last and like the work pattern since then - think he'll come out more seasoned. Will put those two on top of any exactas. Don't like the .

[Thebigguy]

For what its worth, the 9th race Saturday at Gulfstream feels ripe for a price.
I really like the #4 Hunting Hill and the #8 Guard the Lines, both are 8-1 morning line. Would also use #7 Calm Water she is 4-1 morning line, but feel like she will be bet. The morning line favorite is the #12 All Star Kitten, I really dont believe she is much horse and am excited to play against her. Even the #3 Innate Grace is worth using at 20-1 morning line. Going first time turf w/ a decent turf family.

[NJ Stinks]

I like Financial Mogul. He had to wait last time out in the Nashua. I wish Violette did a little better off a layoff but that stat is just going to help the price.

I don't know what to make of the Remsen. About the only thing I can say is nobody should have quit with those fractions.

[precocity]

im betting that pletcher colt dont ask me why im too drunk

[KidCapper]

I'll take a stab with the in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.

[Rise Over Run]

Originally Posted by KidCapper

I'll take a stab with the in here for Jerkins. Finished right behind the 3-1 ML favorite in the G2 Remsen & Castellano jumps off the undefeated Brown colt to ride here. That and 8-1 on the ML give this one a chance.

The Gulfstream lines are notoriously bad, he's got 4-1 or lower all over him.

[wonatthewire1]

I'll check out 3 of them when the odds are up
No particular order
- Financial Mogul - others mentioned the Violette lay off angle which I don't like either. One plus - worked him at 8F a week ago which is a bit unusual

- Cairo Prince - working well and has a GR2 win already, bounced a bit with figs in last race and still almost won

- Wicked Song - similar feelings as Cairo Prince; looks like he's coming into race working well.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

So you get you're 4 contenders and then make the line of 5/2? How did you come up with those four horses?

My program tests tracks in 11 different rankings methods, I use the ranking method that works best at each track. The program also produces a minimum odds report with data from .01/1 or higher odds through 11/1 or higher odds, showing number of races played, hit rates, ROI, and profit/loss. I use the minimum odds level that produces the best combination of number of plays, hit rate, ROI, and profit, for that rankings method. At GP, my "PFV" rankings method works best (for my needs), at 5/2 or higher odds, playing the top 3 ranked horses in the "PFV" rankings method. The 4 horses I listed are the top 3 ranked "PFV" horses, but the 4th ranked horse tied with the 3rd ranked horse, so I have 4 win contenders. I am pretty sure at least one of those 4 will be under 5/2, so to make a profit, regardless of which of the other 3 horses wins, I need 5/2 odds or higher on those 3 remaining horses. If the horse that I didn't bet, the one that is under 5/2 odds, beats me, then he beats me, it's just another loss, like any other loss.

In a field of this size, 11 horses, any individual horse in the field is more likely to lose than to win, so not betting the low odds horse is not that big of a risk. Plus I still have 3 horses I can make money on.

[classhandicapper]

The only thing about the Holy Bull that interests me is the fact that the Remsen Stakes had a ridiculously slow pace.

Because of that, you could argue that Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday finished better than Cairo Prince and represent good value. But I've also seen instances of these extremely slow paces where who finished best was not an indication of who was actually best, just who had the best late speed when none of the horses were used early. In the rematch, the same horse won, just more conclusively when the pace was honest. I prefer betting these horses that closed off slow paces when there is back form that indicates they are actually better. So IMO, you need a bit more price to speculate on what you haven't seen yet.

With so many other horses in the race also eligible to step up strongly and run a new top, I can't see how I can get into this race without a very good price. There are no short priced horses to hate. It's a terrific race.

[Robert Fischer]

Wicked Strong's pedigree sure is easy to like .

Hard Spun
----------->Charismatic
------------------------->With Approval
----------------------------------------->Copelan


DI = 2.27 CD = 0.50

http://www.pedigreequery.com/wicked+strong

[Ocala Mike]

I'm on the , WICKED STRONG, also. Each race better than the one before, and will certainly be finishing in here. Afraid of Shug's .

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you set aside the extreme pace scenarios in the pace run lines from the BC Juv and Remsen(that's the only way I can find a way into this)a lot of them look good.I too like Wicked and especially that 1:40 mile work.Cairo is legitimate but not at this price.Lot of options and hopefully price if you are right.

[iceknight]

I looked at the PPs and thought " Wicked Strong looks good and also Cairo Prince.. but then I see most of the board has them on their radar..

Might just play a small super with 8 - 2 - 7 and 11. Agreeing 100% with Shemp Howard's post earlier in otherthread

Looks like a nice race!
Also betting a small show bet on Our Caravan since no one is talking about that one

[SuitedAces]

#11 Intense Holiday