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Old 10-30-2017, 07:43 PM   #91
woodbinepmi
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 29, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *751

Notes for the day: First two races of the day were slower than par while the last came back quicker than normal. Haymaker encountered quite a bit of trouble after breaking from the 11 hole in the 3rd, but he has never shown any inclination of winning or he would have made my watch list. Merrygowin was unluck not getting up for the win after conceding 16 pounds to the winner. Very impressive win for the Aussie first timer in Hong Kong Powermax, had plenty in the tank even after encountering trouble at the break. Line Seeker loses a rating point which will keep him in Class 2, closed well after being blocked in the stretch. In that same race Southern Legend is now up to 102 which puts him in Class 1, should be able to compete there with the weight allowance.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Better Choice: First time starter for So was totally cold on the board at 77-1. Was a step slow out of the gate, became a little rank on the backside then took Ng 3 wide in to the turn, then shifted to the 6 path for the run home had to shift slightly when Accession Years came into his path. Really took off at the 150 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders, hopefully he while be able to get a top allowance rider for his next race at the Valley.

Race 9 #1 Sichuan Dar: Was unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 hole, took his normal running position in the back while the eventual winner was allowed to get an uncontested early lead. Had to be taken up at the 1050 metre mark costing him around a length and a half of running position, then at the 800 mark Rispoli asked him for a run that continued for a good 300 metres. unfortunately the move carried him to the 3 path heading into the final turn, closed well in the stretch beating the rest easily but unable to catch the lone speed winner. Picked up 2 rating points off the effort which will bring him up to a total of 92 which will allow another try at Class 2.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #11 Sharpmind: Was hit a total of 15 times in the stretch by Risoli and was non-stop for the last 70 metres just holding off the favourite Merrygowin while getting a substantial weight allowance.

Race 5 #2 Wah May Baby: Was a quick pull up after his poor performance.

Speed Figures:
1st (145): +89
2nd (146): -93
3rd (147): 95
4th (148): 96
5th (149): 98
6th (150): +99
7th (151): 98
8th (152): 102
9th (153): 103
10th (154): +107

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 10-31-2017, 05:16 PM   #92
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Eighteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “AWT”, track listed: Fast

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171101_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 Imperial concorde (4-1): All of his victories have been on the dirt surface, but was all out just to miss in his last and drawing the 13 gate with the short run to the first turn doesn’t bode well for him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *755 (winners: 1st and 3rd, second: 2nd)
Race 2 Kirov (6-1)

Race *771 (winners: 8th, 12th and 13th, second: 6th)
Race 3 Holy Unicorn (16-1)

Race 039 (winners: 7th and 10th, second: 3rd and 4th)
Race 3 Happy Beauty (8-1)
Race 3 Diamond Friends (2-1)
Race 3 Equity Doctrine (11-1)




Last race watch list horses:
Race 7 Willie Way (8-1): His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 Sure Peace (22-1) Race *774
Race 5 Goal For Gold (8-1) Race *762
Race 6 Fantastic Feeling (35-1) Race 053

Key Plays:
Race 7 Willie Way (8-1)
Race 8 Divine Boy (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 1 Trendiful (20-1)
Race 2 Giddy Giddy (11-1)
Race 3 Jimson The Famous (30-1)
Race 6 Lucky Guy (12-1)
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Old 11-01-2017, 03:25 AM   #93
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today's guesses for happy valley:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: ensuring ($14 p, $116 quin, $40 omni)
race 2: victory follow me
race 3: cloud nine ($20 win, $10.10 p)
race 4: elegance promise
race 5: look eras ($63.50 w, $20 p, $222 quin, $70 omni)
race 6: pass race
race 7: winwin ruby
race 8: starlight ($18 w, $10.50 p)
last time: 3/7 to win with look eras (63.50 hk) sandwiched between the chalkier cloud nine and starlight. ensuring hits the place line but i again suffer defeat in that market. finally breakthrough with a pair of quinellas to suddenly get back into contention for the season on the exotic.

season: win 11/33 1.07 roi, place 17/33 0.81 roi, quinella 3/43 0.93 roi, omni 8/43 1.31 roi.

today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend)

race 1: foxbat
race 2: startling power
race 3: diamond friends
race 4: confucius spirit
race 5: gran master
race 6:most beautiful
race 7: red marvel
race 8: divine boy
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Old 11-03-2017, 12:48 AM   #94
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Sprints were considerably slower than the route races with the exception of the last race, which was the only race on the card that was faster than par. Going to give Willie Way another try after closing strongly in the lane after going extremely wide in the second turn only to get beat by a neck by the favourite.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 #5 Pick Number One: First time starter that went off as the betting favourite and won with ease against a fairly decent Class 4 field while running a final speed figure 6 points faster than par. Engaged in a duel immediately out of the gate which lasted for 850 meteres until Beekley threw in the towel at the top of the lane and still held off the top 2 weights with ease. Picked up 8 rating points to a total of 60, which will keep him in Class 4 for another try carrying 133 pounds, hopefully he’ll pick up a bug boy and get an allowance.

Race 8 #9 Classic Emperor: Ran one of the most impressive races of the season so far, in his first try on the dirt defeating a big favourite in Divine Boy by almost 7 lengths who beat the third place runner by 2 lengths himself. Picked up a whopping 11 points off the effort, hopefully So will keep him on the dirt from now on.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Red Marvel: Moreira had to really get into him in the lane going to the whip 15 times to hold off Willie Way who had a much tougher trip than he did. Will be forced to carry top weight of 133 in his next start in Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (155): 89
2nd (156): 94
3rd (157): 94
4th (158): 102
5th (159): -95
6th (160): 99
7th (161): 100
8th (162): 110

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Good Luck everybody with The Breeders’ Cup this weekend!
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Old 11-04-2017, 10:21 AM   #95
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today's all weather sha tin guesses:

key (contend) ($10 hk prices)

race 1: foxbat ($76 w, $26.50 p)
race 2: startling power
race 3: diamond friends ($21 w, $13 p)
race 4: confucius spirit
race 5: gran master
race 6:most beautiful
race 7: red marvel ($31.50 w, $16 p)
race 8: divine boy ($12 p)

last time: get off to a good start with Foxbat ($76 hk) in the opener but can only win with lower priced diamond friends and red marvel in the next seven. divine boy hits the place line. 0/11 in both quinellas and omnis.

season: win 14/41 (1.18 roi) place 21/41 (0.82) quin 3/54 (0.74) Omni 8/54 (1.04)

November 5 guesses for sha tin:

key (contend)

race 1: lucky lucky
race 2: winner st paul's
race 3: pass race
race 4: i'm a witness
race 5: midnite promise
race 6: great joy
race 7: time warp
race 8: tai smart
race 9: spicy sure
race 10: big bang bong
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Old 11-04-2017, 10:38 AM   #96
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is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on.....
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:38 AM   #97
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is anyone else trying to bet this on amwager?

only the first race seems right?

the second race has no horses, there is no third race, the fourth race has the fifth race horses, the fifth race has the sixth race horses, and so on.....
everything is good now at amwager!

good luck to all hong kong bettors.
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Old 11-04-2017, 05:06 PM   #98
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. Nineteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 78 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: NE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171105_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 Conte (8-5): Might be a nice runner, but as a first time starter for John Size breaking for the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres at Sha Tin it will most likely have him parked wide throughout. Will watch him closely and try and beat him today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 059 (Winners: 7th and 9th, second: 8th)
Race 6 Red Elysees (7-2)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Hot King Prawn (7-5)
Race 7 Time Warp (9-5)
Race 10 Hang’s Decision (36-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 Amazing Star (9-2): Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 4 Ambitious Heart (8-1): Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 7 Nassa (18-1): Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire. (May be a little out of his weight class in today’s race making a jump from Class 2-104 to a Group three race-110.)

Race 8 Circuit Hassler (3-1): Broke well and was placed 2 wide in the third flight down the backstretch, moved to 4 wide entering the stretch where he had to wait for room, when it looked like he had some room Sergeant Titanium drifted in on him blocking his path. Shifted outside him and closed well to the wire only to be beaten by a length while galloping out well past the wire, should come back and improve off that effort in his second out, he stays at 80 rating points which will keep him in Class 3.

Race 9 Call Me Awesome (13-1): In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. (Unfortunately, he’s not racing at his preferable Happy Valley course.)

Race 10 Jolly Jolly (13-1): Caught a bear in Nothingilikemore in his second race after the break. Is a versatile runner who can finish well on the lead or off it, was placed mid-pack was about 2 Ύ behind the eventual winner entering the turn but became rank when looking for room, had to shift out for room at the top of the lane when Nothingilikemore was making his winning move away from the pack. Closed well afterwards without Purton really getting after him.

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 Great Joy (10-1) Race *791
Race 8 Jolly Gene (27-1) Race 104

Key Plays:
Race 6 Red Elysees (7-2)
Race 8 Circuit Hassler (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 Sweet Home (10-1)
Race 7 Doyeni (11-1)
Race 9 Call Me Awesome (13-1)
Race 10 Jolly Jolly (13-1)
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Last edited by woodbinepmi; 11-04-2017 at 05:07 PM.
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Old 11-06-2017, 06:03 PM   #99
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: November 5, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed
Key Races: 074 and 093

Notes for the day: Track was a little faster than normal due to the rail position and the installation of the winter rye grass. In the first both Amazing Star and Alcari picked up enough points to go up to Class 3. Undefeated Hot King Prawn picked up 9 rating points up to 77, so will pick 9 to 10 pounds next out while still racing at the same class level. Diamond King closed well late in that same race, look for him to go further. Was off on the first time starter Conte, won for fun while breaking from the 12 gate, should improve off that effort in class 3 with the weight allowance. Will give Red Elysees out of race 6 another try next out, was caught in on the rail with no running room in the stretch and Jolly Jolly in the 10th. Nassa picked up 18 points winning the Group Three Ladies’ Purse, Circuit Land, Eagle Way and Rocketeer encountered enough trouble to have a line drawn thru their races.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #5 Fifty Fifty: Went off as the 1.9-1 favourite, broke well from the 2 hole sat around three lengths back off the eventual longshot winner who was able to get a comfortable lead on a track that was favouring front runners most of the day. Was pinned in on the rail in the third flight entering the stretch, Teetan forced his way out and bumping Healthy Joy at the 280 metre mark (the move cost Teetan 2 racing days), when clear really started moving in the final 150 metres of the race only to lose out by a neck. Picked up 2 points for a total of 91 which will allow him to run in a 95-75 Class 2 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #9 Winner St. Paul’s: Won a very slow Class 5 race while getting a perfect trip.

Speed Figures:
1sst (163): 99
2nd (164): 89
3rd (165): 100#
4th (166): -96
5th (167): +96
6th (168): 96
7th (169): +112
8th (170): 98
9th (171): +100
10th (172): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 11-06-2017, 10:21 PM   #100
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Joao Moreira involved in a spill on the Melbourne Cup undercard, nasty spill. No broken bones in the report, just very sore.

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/art...-falling-regal
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Old 11-06-2017, 11:14 PM   #101
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lor will probably get winner st paul's back up to a 95 on your numbers woodbine. he's almost an automatic play right now.

i don't want to be a keyboard warrior like these australian punters but i'm about to stop picking and betting moreira. he just doesn't come in for me. the hk cards are more interesting when he doesn't ride but i do hope he's ok as i don't want to see anyone hurt, human or equine.

great thread and great circuit to follow though. could only be better with american saddlecloths.
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Old 11-07-2017, 04:52 PM   #102
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hong kong question????

http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"???
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Old 11-07-2017, 05:56 PM   #103
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Quote:
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http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

can anyone tell me what the difference is between "on" and "td"???
On - is their opening odds
td - their current odds.
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Old 11-07-2017, 05:59 PM   #104
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Hong Kongat Happy Valley. Twentieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees Few Clouds 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171108_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 Generous Heart (7-2): Is 0 for 5 in Class 3 after holding off a longshot in his last at the Class 4 level in a very average time.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won)
Race *722 (winners: 7th & 10th, second: 2nd)
Race 8 Perpetual Treasure (35-1
)
Race *792 (winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 3 Funny Buddies (25-1)

Race 085 (winners: 6th & 7th, second: 4th)
Race 4 Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 4 Trendy Win (9-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 5 Fairy Twins (14-1)
Race 6 Goodheart Success (24-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 Bank On Red (4-1): Was placed mid-pack going in to the first turn but forced three wide, after running wide in the backstretch was still unable to get over and continued 3 wide in the final turn. Shifted out to the 5 path entering the stretch, continued to close only to beaten by a half-length, he may need 1800 metres and the removal of the hood seems to be working for him.

Race 7 Grace Heart: Was bumped sideways soon after the start forcing him wider than he already was, after going 5 wide in the short turn was then taken back but was only able to find himself in the 3 path while all the time the big favourite was getting a perfect trip on the rail. Swung out to the 8 path for the stretch run, closed well even after trying to lay inward at the 150 metre mark in the stretch

Past watch list runners:
Race 6 The Sylph (10-1) Race 012


Key Play:
Race 3 Multigogo (5-2)
Race 6 Bank On Red (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 Bo Duke (23-1)
Race 5 Golden Harvest (14-1)
Race 6 The Sylph (10-1)
Race 7 Grace Heart (11-1)
Race 8 House Of Fun (13-1)
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Old 11-07-2017, 10:57 PM   #105
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http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/art...valley-meeting

breaking news: moreira's out for happy valley.....
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