A Critique of Speed: Fallacies in Creating Accurate Speed Figures

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I would guess that if perfect figures were made available to all bettors tomorrow that the bettors currently losing today would still be losing tomorrow.

I use whatever means necessary to talk myself into gambling. I think that's what handicapping is for the most part.

Speed/pace figures are useful to me mostly as a means of comparing a horse to itself. I don't need speed figs to tell a false favourite or a legit chalky race. The odds and the class of races/results do that just fine.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Doesn't the latter help you do the former?

That wasn't the question.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I would guess that if perfect figures were made available to all bettors tomorrow that the bettors currently losing today would still be losing tomorrow.

Excellent figures are out there today and most players are still losers.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tom

Excellent figures are out there today and most players are still losers.

Excellent figs have been out there for a long time. I was mocking the if only players. If figs were perfect they would be winners if only ..... The excuses are endless.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

That wasn't the question.

It was a rhetorical question since he was obviously being sarcastic when he used the term fallacious. If you're making money your figures cannot be all that fallacious, can they?

[Tom]

Slow night tonight?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Excellent figs have been out there for a long time. I was mocking the if only players. If figs were perfect they would be winners if only ..... The excuses are endless.

I picked up on the sarcasm and I agree. A lot of people who don't know how to use figures blame them for their losses and nitpick about their inaccuracies.
Like they say - A poor worker blames his tools.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Nitro, my bubble is unpopped.

I have always found the info I get from Trakus useful, especially for ground loss. Yes, a couple of track have had some technical problems but you have to expect that from such a new radical technology?

TPD is the next generation in this technology because it uses the same satellite system used by GPS and the military. Not subject to cell phone interference.

You still have not been able to poke holes in cj' figure making accuracy as he gets precise times using video replays

In any case, you have not proven your statement that speed figures are inaccurate. They are accurate enough for a good handicapper to make good selections. You cannot argue with their success if used properly.

Could that explain your anti-figure campaign? Just because you did so poorly using speed figures does not mean that someone who uses them correctly won't find them accurate enough. As they say, "A poor worker always blames his tools".

Bob you seem to have a hair up you’re ass about the use of speed figures. My original critique posted here was presented simply as an exercise to possibly help improve the creation of speed figures for those entries which were behind the horse at any point of call during a race. I assume that most players use that information in order to make figure comparisons in future races. Apparently there are some here who get it. There was certainly no intent on creating an “anti-figure campaign” just because I don’t use them any longer.

How did you ever arrive at the conclusion that I did “poorly” using them? That couldn’t be further from the truth, because back in the 70’s, 80’s and even some of the 90’s it was a different game. Good figure makers could use that edge to their advantage especially if they incorporated accurate track variants. However, maintaining the quality of that “tool” was a daunting task in terms of the sweat equity (time) involved.

Let me quote a few lines from Bill Benter:

The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

So, I have to admit that my primary goal was to find a way to maintain a long term profit scenario (at a game I thoroughly enjoy) while at the same time (and more importantly) reducing the amount of time it took to do so.

I never implied that those like CJ and others who develop these figures use them without consideration for other variables they deem important. However, I do completely agree with some comments made related to the lack of success that some have when even using the best of figures.

After reading some of the recent comments, I wanted to add something about some thoughts I had about the state of electronic tracking technology. Maybe I’ve been watching too many Law Enforcement programs, but they seem portray the uncanny ability to accurately track individuals who have active cell phones in their possession. So my thoughts are rather than worrying about cell phone interference, why not just use that same technology and put a cell phone in each jockey’s possession while they’re race riding?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Nitro

why not just use that same technology and put a cell phone in each jockey’s possession while they’re race riding?

I couldn't believe it! I am alive to the horse in the final leg of the Pick 6 today. He is leading by 5 widening lengths in the stretch, and what happens? The damn jockey answer's a call and falls off the horse. Why the hell is he carrying a cell phone?!

[Hypnotist1]

THAT WOULD BE TOO EASY!!!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Nitro

After reading some of the recent comments, I wanted to add something about some thoughts I had about the state of electronic tracking technology. Maybe I’ve been watching too many Law Enforcement programs, but they seem portray the uncanny ability to accurately track individuals who have active cell phones in their possession. So my thoughts are rather than worrying about cell phone interference, why not just use that same technology and put a cell phone in each jockey’s possession while they’re race riding?

If you have been reading my complete posts you would know that I have repeatedly said that such a technology already exists and is being used by an increasing number of tracks called TPD. It uses a GPS satellite tracking system. The device uses something like a cell phone embedded in each horses saddle cloth. After many months of successful testing several tracks in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. are using it. It not only shows position, ground loss and accurate sectional times for every horse. It even measures stride length and cadence speed. It has seemed to have solved the problem of occasional errors inherent with Trakus and is much easier to install as it does not involve setting up receivers at various points of call on the track. It can report data at any point including furlong by furlong data in real time. It will even be extremely useful in timing workouts which are notoriously inaccurate due to hand timing. No, I do not work for TPD. For more info, here's the link:

http://www.totalperformancedata.com/

BTW, my statement regarding your lack of success using speed figures was based on statements you yourself made that you were not getting the desired results so you gave them up entirely in favor of tote board analysis and in so doing you are throwing out the baby with the bath water.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

If you have been reading my complete posts you would know that I have repeatedly said that such a technology already exists and is being used by an increasing number of tracks called TPD. It uses a GPS satellite tracking system. The device uses something like a cell phone embedded in each horses saddle cloth. After many months of successful testing several tracks in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. are using it. It not only shows position, ground loss and accurate sectional times for every horse. It even measures stride length and cadence speed. It has seemed to have solved the problem of occasional errors inherent with Trakus and is much easier to install as it does not involve setting up receivers at various points of call on the track. It can report data at any point including furlong by furlong data in real time. It will even be extremely useful in timing workouts which are notoriously inaccurate due to hand timing.

Is there a list of U.S. racetracks where this advanced technology is implemented on a regular basis? Is this information available to the betting public...even at considerable financial cost?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Is there a list of U.S. racetracks where this advanced technology is implemented on a regular basis? Is this information available to the betting public...even at considerable financial cost?

Yep, you'll find the list of tracks in the U.S. and Canada using TPD here. It's free:

https://www.drf.com/news/woodbine-la...-timing-system

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Yep, you'll find the list of tracks in the U.S. and Canada using TPD here. It's free:

https://www.drf.com/news/woodbine-la...-timing-system

I found this statement on the DRF link mentioned:

Like Trakus, the Total Performance Data system constantly records the positions of horses relative to each other, and the system will be used to provide real-time graphics of races, Equibase said.

I would think that knowing the positions of the horses relative to each other is immaterial with this type of technology. Why would beaten lengths even apply any longer? Doesn’t it all come down to knowing when each horse crosses each point of call? This type of technology should simply provide an individual running profile of each entry indicating each point of call and the finish. That’s the information that players would use to make future speed comparisons.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I found this statement on the DRF link mentioned:

I would think that knowing the positions of the horses relative to each other is immaterial with this type of technology. Why would beaten lengths even apply any longer? Doesn’t it all come down to knowing when each horse crosses each point of call? This type of technology should simply provide an individual running profile of each entry indicating each point of call and the finish. That’s the information that players would use to make future speed comparisons.

Actually seeing the positions of the horses gives you a visual and graphic representation of the race and how it develops from several viewpoints, such as pan, aerial, jockeys view, etc. You can see why horses go wide on a turn and get a better understanding of interference and traffic problems in a way that words cannot describe.