Let’s track GDP

[davew]

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

[JustRalph]

You’re right I’m super busy......


Thanks for the update. Good stuff

[reckless]

Originally Posted by davew

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

You make an excellent point. This is where Obama proved how stupid he was. He claimed he entered office in the 'worse economy since the Great Depression'. Yet, doing his 8-year term, he didn't grow the country greater than 2 per cent, despite starting from a very low GDP and horrible economy he claimed he inherited. He was bad in creating jobs too for all Americans, not just government workers.

Trump has grown the GDP, lowered unemployment to crazy levels and has lead this country in making it the financial engine of the entire world. All in two years. All Americans have benefited, too, despite the blind and ignorant 'experts' in the financial media to ignore and dismiss what Trump has done.

No need for apology, economists as a group are the laughing stock of the financial world, especially among those who actually make money and invest that money based on sound thinking, logic, and a grasp of reality.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by reckless

Trump has grown the GDP, lowered unemployment to crazy levels and has lead this country in making it the financial engine of the entire world. All in two years.

Trump did that all by himself, eh? How did he do that?

Presidents and their fans take a lot more credit for good economic news than they could possibly deserve, and similarly usually get a lot more blame for bad news.

Presidents can't and don't "grow the GDP" or "lower unemployment". A president contributes to an environment of an optimistic or pessimistic business outlook with favorable policies. To date, Trump has done a better job of that than Obama did. He isn't helping that lately with growing deficits, tariffs and talk of a shutdown.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Trump did that all by himself, eh? How did he do that?

Presidents and their fans take a lot more credit for good economic news than they could possibly deserve, and similarly usually get a lot more blame for bad news.

Presidents can't and don't "grow the GDP" or "lower unemployment". A president contributes to an environment of an optimistic or pessimistic business outlook with favorable policies. To date, Trump has done a better job of that than Obama did. He isn't helping that lately with growing deficits, tariffs and talk of a shutdown.

Ok, ok, we get it.

You are laughingly still in denial that you made a fool
of yourself since 2015 with all your anti -Trump rants and the like.

Trump laid the groundwork. He also is responsible for the GOP passing his Trump Tax and Reform bill, against the se GOP Leaderships agenda. Your kind of Republicans in the House establishment even wanted to include a border tax, which Trump fought against and won.

His trade policy is working as both China and the EU will soon follow the lead of Mexico and Canada -- they will capitulate as the gravy days are now over for these countries robbing the USA in trade. This decades' long pilfering was made possible by the corrupt 'free' traders in the GOP, the kind you seem to love so much.

Trump also turned back all the anti-business regulations signed by Obama. He did that all by himself, with a pen even.

Yes, this great US economy and promising future lays solely at the feet of one person -- Donald Trump. Thanks to him and his leadership we are the engine of growth in the world once again.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by reckless

Yes, this great US economy and promising future lays solely at the feet of one person -- Donald Trump.

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Clocker

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.

Mike, stop talking stupid, please.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by davew

I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when a) 4% unemployment than b) 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?

a) to some degree and b) it depends.

As economic cycles matures (letter a), it can be more difficult to find qualified candidates for openings (certainly a factor now), which is what I believe you're referencing.

The 10% answer (letter b) isn't possible to answer without additional information (i.e., trend- is the number falling or rising). You could certainly hire people more easily at 10% unemployment, but that doesn't get at your question related to job creation.

I know you and many on this board strongly dislike Obama,* but if you're honest, I think you'll admit you were surprised by the job creation comparison (Trump vs. last two years (trend) under Obama).

*Personally I found it very offensive when Obama said "you didn't build this business," or something very close to that.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by reckless

Mike, stop talking stupid, please.

You believe Trump belongs on Mt Rushmore and you tell me to "stop talking stupid?" To quote Bob Novak, delicious.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

You’re right I’m super busy......


Thanks for the update. Good stuff

I hope your biz is doing well.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Clocker

The recession ended in June, 2009, about six months after Obama took office. The economy continued to grow over the next 7 1/2 years of the Obama administration, but at a slower than usual rate for a recovery because many of Obama's policies were not well received by the private sector. How is Trump responsible for that growth?

The growth continued after Trump's election, or after Hillary's defeat, for some time before Trump could get even begin to implement his changes. Anything that happened because of him was on top of a solid foundation of 8 years of growth.

To repeat, the influence of the president on the economy is a lot less than the fan boys claim on the up side, and a lot less than the detractors claim on the down side.

How come in 8 years under Obama the GDP averaged less than 2 percent cent annually? That's some growth you say was a solid foundation.

Under Trump the GDP has exceeded Obama's by many lengths, despite your criticism.

And this was a great foundation that began with the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Under Trump all time record lows in unemployment rate in all demographics. Ignoring that too. Business and consumer confidence at levels Obama never got close to.

I know you are right and the rest of the fan boys are clueless. Also clueless are the millions working that didn't work under Obama, and the record billions in the US Treasury that didn't exist under Obama, too. All thanks to Trump.

Live in your fantasy world clocker.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by reckless

How come in 8 years under Obama the GDP averaged less than 2 percent cent annually? That's some growth you say was a solid foundation.

Growth that would normally happen at 3 percent and take 3-4 years was only at 2 percent and took 8 years. The end result is the same place. But not according to the Trumpsters. And no one got shot on 5th Ave.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Flash US PMI (purchasing managers index*) hit today --- 53.9, the lowest level in a year. In addition, the Future Output Index fell to a 26-month low.

*0.75 correlation with GDP, according to a St Louis Fed study from 2016.

The stock market may know more than we think.

Above foots with a GDP slowdown. That is not a political statement. It's data.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

That is not a political statement. It's data.

Many people have their minds made up. Don't confuse them with facts.