Quote:
Originally Posted by AutumnLotus
Which would you say is the most probable to win?
The daily double
The pick three
Pick 4
Pick 5
Pick 6
Superfecta?
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I don't think you worded the question quite the way you intended to. Obviously a Daily double is going to have a higher win percentages (thus most probable to win on an individual bet). I believe what you are trying to ask is what pools are players most profitable or at least lose least in long term.
The problem is pricing rears its ugly head in this equation. From a mathematical standpoint obviously the more legs in the multi leg exotic (I think a superfecta would fit somewhere in the middle between a pick 3 and a pick 4), the harder it is to hit, the longer your dry runs but obviously the higher premium you will bet because you are paying the same takeout on as little as 36 potential combos in a double (to six horse fields-yes I know sometimes there are even smaller fields than that) to as many as a million combos in a pick 6 (assuming 10 horses in each race).
Because racing likes to give better pricing (for the most part) on pick 5s than they do on pick 4s and pick 3's and doubles and usually on pick sixes and always on superfectas, the logical approach is to look at the pick five as the best value. Lowest takeout and on average you should receive twice as much as a parlay because of the one takeout on 5 legs. The problem of course is that often as a player you just don't like all 5 legs. In years past I pretty much played every pick 5 for some amount at Woodbine Mohawk Harness. This year when I came back I have retrained myself to focus on sequences that I have opinions on all 5 races and I have some good value opinions along the way. As a result, I rarely play pick 5's at that track this year. There is usually at least one race where I just don't like it or have no handle on it. Just because I have no handle on it doesn't mean the public/caw has no handle on it. Going 5 deep to watch a 7/5 shot, who you do not like, win doesn't do wonders for your bankroll
The problem is the majority of horseplayers like the majority of the pubic is on a limited bankrolls. The caw has no bankroll constraints and the rebates give them great pricing on all pools. The Mike Maloneys and Marshall Grahams of the world tend to pay about 10% on all pools after rebates so they can focus on where they feel their edge is best. The non rebated bettor is sort of screwed because he logically is limited to the lower takeout pick 5 pool, but often will nullify the extra advantage he gets with the extra legs and reduced takeout by including races he has no business betting. If you have to use 9 out of 11 horses and you have no clue who your a's and B's are the majority of the time your tickets is going to be worth less after that race. So you end up getting stuck singling a couple horses who may have a reasonable chance of winning and even if they win you have to hope you didn't go 9 and 7 deep to get home a 5/2 and 3-1 shot which is often the case.
I talk a lot about rebates destroying the game because I have known for years that is the case. But racing does a lot of things bad. Charging 15% takeout on the pick 5 from races 1 to 5 and 22% for the takeout in the pick 4
from races 2 to 5 and 22% on any of the pick 3's involving those races (I am making up the 22% but I believe it is fairly accurate at most tracks) just motivates the recreational player to get involved in pools/races he/she should not be involved in. But it all goes back to "entertainment". The industry does not respect it's customers and makes it very hard for them to even lose a reasonable amount of money. Thus the continued exodus from the game.
To answer your question you will get a wide array of answers. Theoretically most should do best with the low takeout pick 5, but does the player have the bankroll to weather the storms and more importantly the discipline to avoid the ones where there are bad races involved? Even if they do, will they even hit one. Some probably do better with the daily double, not because it is a better bet, but because they can focus on races they have a good handle on more easily by betting perceived value combinations.
I think in general it is better to focus all you energy into the track you have handicapped in depth and try to decipher what they are giving you. Isolate the good value situations and good singles/doubles. If you can connect some of them in the multi legs do it. But don't worry so much about this pool has a 22% takeout and this pool has a 15% takeout. So my answer to you is that you really should not care about what you asked, because your focus should be on where you think there may be some opportunity. Could be an exacta, a double, a pick 3, a superfecta etc. Not playing a superfecta you like (you have a strong key with only 4 horses a couple that are good value) because the takeout is too high, is silly. Moreover buying 2 races in a pick 5 just to get through those races to make a play in a reduced takeout pick 5 pool is also silly.
