Woodbine Track Profile

[46zilzal]

At EVERY Canadian venue, when the new season again starts, the first few weeks are all about conditioning races, NOT the same as the regular season. This same thing happens at Hastings, previously at old Stampede, Fort Eire and Woodbine.....

Using them as a standard to project the rest of the season is fraught with error.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

At EVERY Canadian venue, when the new season again starts, the first few weeks are all about conditioning races, NOT the same as the regular season. This same thing happens at Hastings, previously at old Stampede, Fort Eire and Woodbine.....

Using them as a standard to project the rest of the season is fraught with error.

IF you bothered to read my post, that is exactly what I said.
When reality changes, the profile will show it.
And when they get past 4.5 furlongs, you expect it to change.
I also filter for sloppy tracks for day when it rains. Soft turf when the turf is soft....then stop when it is firm.

[rispa]

I think trainer profiles are more important. Who wins their first start of the meet, distance/surface moves, jock changes etc.....

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by rispa

I think trainer profiles are more important. Who wins their first start of the meet, distance/surface moves, jock changes etc.....

Things that do not matter to the horse DIRECTLY have little weight statistically. A lot of that is simple experimentation.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by rispa

I think trainer profiles are more important. Who wins their first start of the meet, distance/surface moves, jock changes etc.....

So does anyone want me to continue on this or just give it up?
I would like to continue but that is just me

[Tom]

Originally Posted by rispa

I think trainer profiles are more important. Who wins their first start of the meet, distance/surface moves, jock changes etc.....

At FL, there are certain patterns in the opening weeks that have been repeated for many years. Many of the horses can only win at 4.5 furlongs and just do not have the capability to last longer. And their form looks terrible for the most part, unless they come in from CT.

Many horse not fit and ready yet and horse this fast early and already as fit as he is going get, good spots to bet into. Too bad a lot of them now only pay crap, but some slip by.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by rispa

I think trainer profiles are more important. Who wins their first start of the meet, distance/surface moves, jock changes etc.....

because a trainer has some horse ready first asking only means those HORSES, not the trainer, are ready.

Horses run, trainers watch

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Things that do not matter to the horse DIRECTLY have little weight statistically. A lot of that is simple experimentation.

You do realize the actual data says otherwise.


-jp

.

[CheckMark]

Guys please let’s not get off topic here.

Only post in here IF and IF you have something to say about my Woodbine Profile, Woodbine in general or anything else related to THIS data and not something else.

Thank you and hopefully back on track here now. Woodbine starts back up on Thursday @ 3:45pm

I will be updating this data as there are some 7 1/2 furlong turf races carded for Thursday.

Thank you!

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

because a trainer has some horse ready first asking only means those HORSES, not the trainer, are ready.

Horses run, trainers watch

In a literal sense, true. In reality, proven incorrect every day at every racetrack.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Dumb place to probably put this but I will do it anyway

I am currently creating a track profile for Woodbine this year and I wanted to share it with the members of Pace Advantage and ask/see:

1) What users thought of the setup
2) What users thought of the data used

I also wondered if anyone had any way of using this on a day to day basis since I am just starting to use this data like this and I would like to be successful in making it possible to track trends of Woodbine and see if that can turn into possible winners as the meet goes on

I love learning about new ideas/projects and I would appreciate it if anyone thought this was a good idea or bad idea?

Thanks and the file pdf is attached below
Attachment 27560

Like most tracks, Woodbine undergoes cycles of bias.

Late or off the pace for a while. Then without warning early for a card or two before cycling back to the norm. (Or vice versa.)

One thing you may (or may not) find useful would be creating notes you can refer back to.

For example, my 'data' suggests the opening day Sat 06-06-2020 WOX card 'leaned' more towards early than it did late.

The first part of my notes might be a single line entry that reads something like this:

TK  Date        Impression
--- ----------  ------------
WOX 06-06-2020  mostly early

The next part would be to list out horses that ran reasonably well while up against it bias-wise that day.

For example:

TK  Date        Rc  Horse	           Descr
--- ----------  --  --------------------   ------------------------
WOX 06-06-2020   1  Majestic Fever         Closed against the grain
WOX 06-06-2020   1  Gasconade              Closed against the grain
WOX 06-06-2020   2  Queen Andher Court     Closed against the grain
WOX 06-06-2020   2  French Charm           Closed against the grain

Sometimes horses taking the worst of it from a bias perspective come back to race again on a day when conditions are more favorable for the way it distributes its energy.

Sometimes, despite recent uglied up running lines, such a horse will be fit and ready while matched up against others in a race where it figures to be competitive.

Every once in a while, because of recent uglied up running lines, such a horse will be overlooked in the odds.

Obviously this is work.

But if you are good at spotting things that aren't apparent to everybody else (think of that as a requirement for making this work) a good set of notes can be worth the effort.



-jp

.

[jay68802]

Use races that make sense. In other words, after the race is over, go over the race again and say, "Yes, I understand that the horse that was on the lead should have been there." Or you might say "WTF???, why was the on the lead. He is a closer. And the only E horse in the race is 5th???.

Young horses can change running styles, so use races for these horses separately.

[Nitro]

At the start of any race meet most ardent players will wait and only bet seriously after they’ve witnessed horses experiencing a race over the track (be it Dirt, Tapeta or Turf). Later on more often than not those horses having that race over the surface will generally have a distinct advantage if they’re in decent shape next time out.

So, I personally wouldn’t place a lot of weight on any statistics generated early in the meet.

[Tom]

But when you are playing a horse who ran early in the meet, having the profile tells you what was going on then.

Check - I will find out about the lane stuff tomorrow.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

So does anyone want me to continue on this or just give it up?
I would like to continue but that is just me

Well I was going to sit on the sidelines and let you learn the hardway, but I guess I'll be nice....for once....the data is to broad and general and you need a huge sample size. In theory you could probably take the 1400 or so races over the last 2 years from HK that are easily available and grab the same info and see it there.

But I will say Jeff P's post about the horses closing against the bias is the type of stuff I think might still be valuable, instead of looking at the macro of a race, look at the micro, i.e. bias, pace scenario, odds profile of winner etc. Grading races instead of the individual horses in a race. Something I've dabbled more with recently.