and who says u shouldn't know what the odds will be in advance

[mmmjjjj]

Sorry forgot this one

And why is it the #5 in oklwawns
Fourth. race is not listed

The ml chalkk??

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

So far




Gulf

What the approx Public lines should be today

Race 3—-noble hope—2-1- might go chalk

Race 6— omnia—-5-2

Race 9—queens jewel—9/5
( how is he not listed fav)

Nice job!

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Nice job!

Thanks coach

Hope u had a great day !!

[mmmjjjj]

so back at square one

today i am providing these examples more as a way of saying "how " not as an insult
but as a genuine horseplayer "how"

this is the main reason i began to study the lines

lets go to fonner park (spoiler alert) replay randall /thas /cj/casteaway/gorrex /prof factor/ and all the rest of the sharp shooters
, this is not intended for you because i know it took me all of 1 minute to get these lines.
so my assumption is that you as well will see through it but still one always has to do a double take
if one is completely honest with oneself

i will try and address the common horseplayer and the player trying to put the pieces together

fonner race 4------------ #4 wise ron 8-1 ml ---- is he not suppose to be chalkkkk here ??
below are the line contenders

3-- made him ml choice , why ?? what is rodriguez the ultimate shifter here , he has already tried 3 times at level , no killer instinct,
nothing to support the claim

9-- 0/39 enough said and i can go on and on

5-- second time ricardo ,big speed , and has back class and best at dist but is it enough for a reversal ???
absolutely no indication of it at all. past his cycle

1-- wood stays and sure he is interesting as this is his first 6f attempt and lightly raced so shouldn't he be above the 3,9,5 on the lines
sure he should

6-- nobody knows if he is trained up for this but he would kill them if he was . problem is trainer bad , and the long layoff and so on
but don't be at all surprised if he wins . in these cheapers when in doubt don't bet!!!

2--- bet in first race , trainer jockey good and has room for improvement . so was the first a setup maybe ( oh you sharpies know)
but the public does not so what should be his line ??

the rest i won't touch upon

so that leaves the #4

i ask the main linesmaker here "how" did u come up with this

--why because he ran fifth last out at same level?? but it was muddy
doesn't that give u incentive to look past it
--sure his style is not conducive but he is not a plodder as it seems
his turn time represents the best of the bunch
and last two races he was there at the half way point .
--his second last wins here hands down and gets his go to rider
--- bfav in last ( not that this is an indication of much but it helps with the line at times)
-- has all the components of speed class , trainer intent and the rest

so again how ??
my line says 8/5 but this could be the simulations overloading and
one has to use wisdom to try and solve the puzzle

still this should not be happening ever

and by the way william hill still has him 9-2 and we are 2 hours away
so if this one is for u

head on over there

[mmmjjjj]

fonner race 9

#4 for the hustle ----10-1--- again is he not suppose to go chalkk or close to it

lets run down the main contenders

#6 5-2 on what planet does this become the ml fav -- i wont go further

#8 7-2 sure he is consistent and a player but does not the trip the
and the fact that he has to try and repeat plus his age place him a little higher

#1 9-2 is he the real deal sure maybe . although not too many winners come from this spot
at this racetrack , can he overcome?? absolutely but is still dependent on what happens up top
and the fact that he has had problems recently u have to put question marks on it.
still the trainer is super hot and they know if he is ready but how does this reflect the line??

#9 6-1 on best he is a killer , he will try and establish position and has enough to put it all together when right
but is today the right day , too many questions especially why all the time off and if they were serious does not someone
else step in for the duties . regardless the line here fits

so the rest i am not going to worry about

now back to line selection

#4 -----just lost to the second fav two back where he had the lead in deep stretch
drops the 5 pounds
gets the go to rider
style fits the track
and he is on his best cylcle of all time
plus gets the jump on the main two contenders
( yes there are negatives and all u pros know what they are )

but for these purposes, given what was stated
does he not deserve favourtism (on the line itself )
not for win purposes but what the public as players /owners/ data base syndicates /sharp handicappers


and all the rest (should he not be )
or again is it just my simulations overloading

anyway got him 2-1 here
and again william hill has him 8-1

so "how " is the ultimate question

gl

mm

[Prof.Factor]

Spot on again .... I like it.

[mmmjjjj]

gulf

race 8---elite appeal ---should he not go chalkk---8-5
---- rosa star ---- i see 9-2 ( instead of 15-1) --- how about you??

oaklawn

race 7---- ives college fund ---- last time he had the big break he jogged
alright works nothing to cry about but should he not be closer
to 6 -1 7-1 here ??? even if he got taken from the big drug barn
not even close to the 20-1 ml advertised

race 8--- seventh nation army ---- i see close to chalk!! instead of 6-1 ml well lets give him 5-1ml since
the #8 scratched
got him 5-2

gl

[mmmjjjj]

so i will get back to the bad fav from thasaklos later on due to the high volume of clients

but for now decided to throw this down


race 5 gulfstream will solidify all the concerns and confusion that most people will have

who is going chalk or close to it ??
who is the simulation real play ??


so who is going chalk from public view?? (from what oddsmaker should be telling you) well this is a tough call if u have done ur homework -- as all have negative parameters but here goes

sabina park --8-1 ml will be among the chalks or first two choices
got him 2-1 !!!(whether u agree or not will depend on where u are sitting
but i know alot of you will be saying no chance he should be that price and yes u may be right ) but my simulations are extremely powerful so i won't be too far off)
---- 11 pound swing from the simulators is real big here much bigger than anyone will give him credit for

stormy boss 7-2 ml---- first time level is a big plus and the simulators are strong -- also i got 2-1!!!

the rest are above 5-1 from my end !!! from public view


now who is the real simulation plays from my real lines

well if u guessed #4 mias bobtail ---6-1ml
u would be correct
i got him 6-5 here yes 6-5 here

now i know all the sharp shooters will say im crazy and anybody can put any
numerical factor on any horse and justify it in their own heads

(true) but i have been showing you over and over again that this is not the case !!so if u believe in my real percentage of 37 percent it automatically becomes an extreme overlay due to the fact that my public simulations above are calling

the #2 and the #7 to go 2-1 each (they may be a little higher )



will the 4 run who knows but those are the real percentages take it or leave it. remember there is a 63 percent chance he loses , this is the reality !!!!

but in horse racing terms don't you want these type of realities over
a horse who has a 12 percent chance to win and is going off at 3-2

sure we do

this is why i keep stating you don't have to wait to see if ur horse is going to be an overlay you should already know long time before hand

mm

gl

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

so i will get back to the bad fav from thasaklos later on due to the high volume of clients

but for now decided to throw this down


race 5 gulfstream will solidify all the concerns and confusion that most people will have

who is going chalk or close to it ??
who is the simulation real play ??


so who is going chalk from public view?? (from what oddsmaker should be telling you) well this is a tough call if u have done ur homework -- as all have negative parameters but here goes

sabina park --8-1 ml will be among the chalks or first two choices
got him 2-1 !!!(whether u agree or not will depend on where u are sitting
but i know alot of you will be saying no chance he should be that price and yes u may be right ) but my simulations are extremely powerful so i won't be too far off)
---- 11 pound swing from the simulators is real big here much bigger than anyone will give him credit for

stormy boss 7-2 ml---- first time level is a big plus and the simulators are strong -- also i got 2-1!!!

the rest are above 5-1 from my end !!! from public view


now who is the real simulation plays from my real lines

well if u guessed #4 mias bobtail ---6-1ml
u would be correct
i got him 6-5 here yes 6-5 here

now i know all the sharp shooters will say im crazy and anybody can put any
numerical factor on any horse and justify it in their own heads

(true) but i have been showing you over and over again that this is not the case !!so if u believe in my real percentage of 37 percent it automatically becomes an extreme overlay due to the fact that my public simulations above are calling

the #2 and the #7 to go 2-1 each (they may be a little higher )



will the 4 run who knows but those are the real percentages take it or leave it. remember there is a 63 percent chance he loses , this is the reality !!!!

but in horse racing terms don't you want these type of realities over
a horse who has a 12 percent chance to win and is going off at 3-2

sure we do

this is why i keep stating you don't have to wait to see if ur horse is going to be an overlay you should already know long time before hand

mm

gl

Spot on again

[Dave Schwartz]

I am going to share something that will be in the next upgrade of HSH in just a few days.

Now, this is anecdotal but I thought you guys would have an interest.

The 3 columns are:

1. How the public handicaps "races like this one."
2. How the public bets "races like this one."
3. How the public actually bet THIS RACE.

All pcts are normalized to 100%.

See any patterns?

AQU02 Analyst-NewCap.AQU02  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  ORCHID PARTY               21| 22| 37|
 2  OFFLEE IRISH               14|  1|  1|					10.20
 3  JACQUELINE D               17|  3|  7|
 4  PRINCESS MIKAYAH            1|  0|  1|
 5  MALIBU MISCHIEF             0| 16| 21|
 6  NOWITNA RIVER               6|  9|  6|
 7  ZECHA                       7| 10|  6|			10.00
 8  FRIEND OF LIBERTY          35| 39| 20|	8.10
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

GP 04 Analyst-NewCap.GP 04  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  SO DEAR                    20|  3|  4|
 2  WITCH HUNTER               33| 22| 23|					2.20
 3  PLEASE                      0|  2|  7|
 4  HARMONIC THUNDER            1| 36| 15|
 5  FLASHING RED               21| 14| 22|			3.60
 6  GREY JAZMINE               11|  0|  1|
 7  TOPO GRIGIO                15| 22| 28|	6.00
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

LRL03 Analyst-NewCap.LRL03  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  CANOOCHEE                   5| 11| 15|	10.80
 3  WILKO LOVESONG              0|  0|  1|
 4  FLIRTATION WALK             8| 29| 25|			3.20
 5  SPLENDOR GAL               33|  6| 15|
 6  BARBSGRAY LION             15| 16| 20|					2.60
 7  GLORIA'S GAL               40| 37| 23|
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

TAM05 Analyst-NewCap.TAM05  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  COURTING MOONLIGHT          0|  2|  3|
 2  FAFA FOOEY                 17| 15|  9|
 3  CREDIT CYCLE                4|  8| 10|	15.80
 4  GATOR FIFTY TWO             2|  0|  4|
 5  THE EXCEPTION              30| 33| 31|
 6  BRANDY CHASER               0|  1|  2|
 7  AWESOME ROMEO              12|  6|  4|
 8  MALETTA                     9|  8| 10|			8.40
 9  WILL RUNAWAY               24| 27| 28|					3.20
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

AQU03 Analyst-NewCap.AQU03  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  CRIMSON FROST               6|  5| 10|	16.00
 2  ESPRESSO SHOT               6|  9| 14|
 3  NO HAYNE NO GAYNE          31| 24|  9|					2.30
 5  NEWLY MINTED               56| 61| 66|			2.10
 6  HAPPYCREST                  1|  1|  1|
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by coachv30

Spot on again

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am going to share something that will be in the next upgrade of HSH in just a few days.

Now, this is anecdotal but I thought you guys would have an interest.

The 3 columns are:

1. How the public handicaps "races like this one."
2. How the public bets "races like this one."
3. How the public actually bet THIS RACE.

All pcts are normalized to 100%.

See any patterns?

AQU02 Analyst-NewCap.AQU02  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  ORCHID PARTY               21| 22| 37|
 2  OFFLEE IRISH               14|  1|  1|					10.20
 3  JACQUELINE D               17|  3|  7|
 4  PRINCESS MIKAYAH            1|  0|  1|
 5  MALIBU MISCHIEF             0| 16| 21|
 6  NOWITNA RIVER               6|  9|  6|
 7  ZECHA                       7| 10|  6|			10.00
 8  FRIEND OF LIBERTY          35| 39| 20|	8.10
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

GP 04 Analyst-NewCap.GP 04  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  SO DEAR                    20|  3|  4|
 2  WITCH HUNTER               33| 22| 23|					2.20
 3  PLEASE                      0|  2|  7|
 4  HARMONIC THUNDER            1| 36| 15|
 5  FLASHING RED               21| 14| 22|			3.60
 6  GREY JAZMINE               11|  0|  1|
 7  TOPO GRIGIO                15| 22| 28|	6.00
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

LRL03 Analyst-NewCap.LRL03  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  CANOOCHEE                   5| 11| 15|	10.80
 3  WILKO LOVESONG              0|  0|  1|
 4  FLIRTATION WALK             8| 29| 25|			3.20
 5  SPLENDOR GAL               33|  6| 15|
 6  BARBSGRAY LION             15| 16| 20|					2.60
 7  GLORIA'S GAL               40| 37| 23|
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

TAM05 Analyst-NewCap.TAM05  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  COURTING MOONLIGHT          0|  2|  3|
 2  FAFA FOOEY                 17| 15|  9|
 3  CREDIT CYCLE                4|  8| 10|	15.80
 4  GATOR FIFTY TWO             2|  0|  4|
 5  THE EXCEPTION              30| 33| 31|
 6  BRANDY CHASER               0|  1|  2|
 7  AWESOME ROMEO              12|  6|  4|
 8  MALETTA                     9|  8| 10|			8.40
 9  WILL RUNAWAY               24| 27| 28|					3.20
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

AQU03 Analyst-NewCap.AQU03  Objectjectject
                                          
Prg Name                 m    Pct|Pct|Pct|
 1  CRIMSON FROST               6|  5| 10|	16.00
 2  ESPRESSO SHOT               6|  9| 14|
 3  NO HAYNE NO GAYNE          31| 24|  9|					2.30
 5  NEWLY MINTED               56| 61| 66|			2.10
 6  HAPPYCREST                  1|  1|  1|
                  Field Strengths|ths|ths|

[mmmjjjj]

golden gate race 9

i can tell u this

there is no horse here who has a line under 3-1 in my sims

and the lines will curve into each other so they will be closer

than what the board implies

according to my sims

shop for value even if it comes 1-2-3 favs !!!!!

[mmmjjjj]

i know not much to take from this but
maybe

did a great job placing these ml favourites as favourites

will rogers

race 4-- nativer river
race 6---who's fooling who

he did a really poor job at placing this ml favourite as favourite

fonner park

race 7--popcorn eddie

gl

see if u can find the advantage

[mmmjjjj]

Forget those morning lines

What Board Should be reading
Let’s see if sims get close to these prices today
Gl

Today



Gulf

3–Bella Gianna —5-2
3–toonie loonie—-5-2

4–ww Archie—3-1
4–mighty fast—7-2
4–uno baby bird—-4-1

6—Kozy dreams—5-2

8—ghostly beauty—8-5
8– lady panda—3-1
8—yolandas pride—7-2