Justin Fields or Caleb Williams

[proximity]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not Tomlinson's fault.

spoken like a true horseplayer!!!

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

And the organization that has completely whiffed as of late in drafting QBs now has the 1st pick. The very last thing the Bears should be doing is drafting a QB #1 overall. Trade down, build the roster and get some talent around a young QB you drafted just 3 years ago and give him a chance. This is a bad QB draft IMO, similar to the 2019 draft where teams desperately reached.

No offense, but you should stick to something you know. It's not draft classes or QBs.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by headhawg

No offense, but you should stick to something you know. It's not draft classes or QBs.

Stats and reality are hard.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

The 1st round of the NFL draft is absolutely littered with complete reaches on QBs.

We all know QB is without any question the most important position in the league. Almost impossible to win the Super Bowl without one of the very best in the league. However, with that stipulation, teams have gotten into a ridiculous fever of trying to draft the next Joe Montana, Tom Brady, and now Patrick Mahomes.

This is a list of the QBs taken in the 1st round this century. It is absolutely littered with reaches, busts, and complete train wrecks.

2000: 18th Chad Pennington
2001: 1st Michael Vick
2002: 1st David Carr, 3rd Joey Harrington, 32nd Patrick Ramsey
2003: 1st Carson Palmer, 7th Byron Leftwich, 19th Kyle Boller, 22nd Rex Grossman
2004: 1st Eli Manning, 4th Phillip Rivers, 11th Ben Roethlisberger, 22nd JP Losman
2005: 1st Alex Smith, 24th Aaron Rodgers, 25th Jason Campbell
2006: 3rd Vince Young, 10th Matt Leinart, 11th Jay Cutler
2007: 1st Jamarcus Russell, 22nd Brady Quinn
2008: 3rd Matt Ryan, 18th Joe Flacco
2009: 1st Matt Stafford, 5th Mark Sanchez, 17th Josh Freeman
2010: 1st Sam Bradford, 25th Tim Tebow
2011: 1st Cam Newton, 8th Jake Locker, 10th Blaine Gabbert, 12th Christian Ponder
2012: 1st Andrew Luck, 2nd Robert Griffin III, 8th Ryan Tannehill, 22nd Brandon Weeden
2013: 16th EJ Manuel
2014: 3rd Blake Bortles, 22nd Johnny Manziel, 32nd Teddy Bridgewater
2015: 1st Jameis Winston, 2nd Marcus Mariota
2016: 1st Jared Goff, 2nd Carson Wentz, 26th Paxton Lynch
2017: 2nd Mitchell Trubisky, 10th Patrick Mahomes, 12th Deshaun Watson
2018: 1st Baker Mayfield, 3rd Sam Darnold, 7th Josh Allen, 10th Josh Rosen, 32nd Lamar Jackson
2019: 1st Kyler Murray, 6th Daniel Jones, 15th Dwayne Haskins
2020: 1st Joe Burrow, 5th Tua Tagovailova, 6th Justin Herbert, 26th Jordan Love
2021: 1st Trevor Lawrence, 2nd Zach Wilson, 3rd Trey Lance, 11th Justin Fields, 15th Mac Jones
2022: 20th Kenny Pickett
2023: 1st Bryce Young, 2nd CJ Stroud, 4th Anthony Richardson

When you look through this list, we aren't even talking about a 20% hit rate for such a massive investment.

Also, GMs should be doing everything they can to see who the Browns, Cardinals, Commanders, and Jets have as their 'top' QBs and avoid them like the plague.

And the organization that has completely whiffed as of late in drafting QBs now has the 1st pick. The very last thing the Bears should be doing is drafting a QB #1 overall. Trade down, build the roster and get some talent around a young QB you drafted just 3 years ago and give him a chance. This is a bad QB draft IMO, similar to the 2019 draft where teams desperately reached.

Was that really necessary to take a dig at my Washington "formerly known as Redskins" Commanders? My football fandom has been Los Angeles Rams (1966-1972) SF 49ers (1973-2011) Washington (2012-present)

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Was that really necessary to take a dig at my Washington "formerly known as Redskins" Commanders? My football fandom has been Los Angeles Rams (1966-1972) SF 49ers (1973-2011) Washington (2012-present)

Ha didn't mean it to be a dig, but stats and reality.

As a Dolphins fan I'm not sold on Tua in the least.

Marino has been gone forever, and they still be searching. It is really really hard to get a QB that can win Super Bowls. And a 1st round early pick is certainly no guaranteed way to get there.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by headhawg

No offense, but you should stick to something you know. It's not draft classes or QBs.

I am only good at picking what college QBs will fail in the NFL and what young NFL QBs with early success will fail. I can tell you who not to pick, but not who to pick. Right now I will name Caleb Williams and Bo Nix as draft busts, if I was a GM I would not even spend a 7th on them.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Ha didn't mean it to be a dig, but stats and reality.

As a Dolphins fan I'm not sold on Tua in the least.

Marino has been gone forever, and they still be searching. It is really really hard to get a QB that can win Super Bowls. And a 1st round early pick is certainly no guaranteed way to get there.

I am was just pretending to be offended, my Commanders have not had a franchise QB since Theisman, and before that was Sonny Jurgensen.
At least they have had two respectable quarterbacks during the Super Bowl era
that is two more than the Bears have had.


Not sure how long you have been a Dolphin fan but I was a 49er fan the year
they beat the Dolphins in the Super Bowl. I cleaned up, I made a lot of $20 bets by the spread with $1 a point after spread adjustment. I made over $600 and I was new on a job making $6.62 an hour.


The moral of the story is I thought we had not seen the last of Dan Marino in Super Bowls. He never made one again, shocking. If you are making a list of great NFL QBs that never won a championship I think Marino and Fouts are and .


By the way the Washington ex-Redskins are under new ownership, 25 years of trash under Dan Snyder is over. There is hope for the future.


My switching teams is explained as:
Rams to 49ers, lived in SoCal, too many Ram fans, 49ers were hated. I often enjoyed having a dissenting opinion. 49ers to Redskins, I moved to the East Coast and was catching hell on a 49er fan website for bagging on Colin Kaepernick. I was the first one to predict his demise.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Stats and reality are hard.

Then learn how to use them. You can't just cite stats from one group without making a comparison to other groups. It's just silly as there's no context. Why don't you post lists breaking down the other draft rounds and control for the number of QBs taken each round? Then talk to me about your misinterpretation of first round QBs. The same thing happens with combine numbers. Do I care if Xavier Worthy ran a 4.21? Not if he can't run routes or catch a football. Teams aren't going to run a streak pattern every down. Anyone remember John Ross? Henry Ruggs? J.J. Nelson? the Renaldo Nehemiah experiment???

There is such a thing as the eye test. Some guys pass, some don't. Fields doesn't. You might be right about this draft class; it might end up looking like 2019 or even 2011. From the tape I've seen it looks more like the 2020 draft though.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Then learn how to use them. You can't just cite stats from one group without making a comparison to other groups. It's just silly as there's no context. Why don't you post lists breaking down the other draft rounds and control for the number of QBs taken each round? Then talk to me about your misinterpretation of first round QBs. The same thing happens with combine numbers. Do I care if Xavier Worthy ran a 4.21? Not if he can't run routes or catch a football. Teams aren't going to run a streak pattern every down. Anyone remember John Ross? Henry Ruggs? J.J. Nelson? the Renaldo Nehemiah experiment???

There is such a thing as the eye test. Some guys pass, some don't. Fields doesn't. You might be right about this draft class; it might end up looking like 2019 or even 2011. From the tape I've seen it looks more like the 2020 draft though.

We have differing opinions.

No need to get all angry and offensive my man.

I listed straight facts. I apologize if you found them offensive.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I am was just pretending to be offended, my Commanders have not had a franchise QB since Theisman, and before that was Sonny Jurgensen.
At least they have had two respectable quarterbacks during the Super Bowl era
that is two more than the Bears have had.


Not sure how long you have been a Dolphin fan but I was a 49er fan the year
they beat the Dolphins in the Super Bowl. I cleaned up, I made a lot of $20 bets by the spread with $1 a point after spread adjustment. I made over $600 and I was new on a job making $6.62 an hour.


The moral of the story is I thought we had not seen the last of Dan Marino in Super Bowls. He never made one again, shocking. If you are making a list of great NFL QBs that never won a championship I think Marino and Fouts are and .


By the way the Washington ex-Redskins are under new ownership, 25 years of trash under Dan Snyder is over. There is hope for the future.


My switching teams is explained as:
Rams to 49ers, lived in SoCal, too many Ram fans, 49ers were hated. I often enjoyed having a dissenting opinion. 49ers to Redskins, I moved to the East Coast and was catching hell on a 49er fan website for bagging on Colin Kaepernick. I was the first one to predict his demise.

Fish fan since '84 is where I landed.

Was a Walter Payton fan as a youngin', and then turned to Earl Campbell and the baby blues. The Chargers/Dolphins playoff game forever changed me, and the Fish drafted Marino. It was game over. Fish fan since.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Then learn how to use them. You can't just cite stats from one group without making a comparison to other groups. It's just silly as there's no context. Why don't you post lists breaking down the other draft rounds and control for the number of QBs taken each round? Then talk to me about your misinterpretation of first round QBs. The same thing happens with combine numbers. Do I care if Xavier Worthy ran a 4.21? Not if he can't run routes or catch a football. Teams aren't going to run a streak pattern every down. Anyone remember John Ross? Henry Ruggs? J.J. Nelson? the Renaldo Nehemiah experiment???

There is such a thing as the eye test. Some guys pass, some don't. Fields doesn't. You might be right about this draft class; it might end up looking like 2019 or even 2011. From the tape I've seen it looks more like the 2020 draft though.

I only remember Renaldo Nehemiah out of that group. I would be real curious
what combine skill test was the best indicator of future success per position playing in the NFL. I think bench might be important for O-line and D-line as O-line now can grab and hold. Grabbing and shoving someone out of the way
I would think someone benching a lot would be good at.


Personal experience, I benched a lot back in the day. I got in a fight at the finish line at Santa Anita with some 6'9" 300#+ drunk dude. I have a liberal friend in Cali that will back up that story. As he was talking crap to me, as the cool customer I am, I am plotting strategy for a fight. I was 6' even and a solid 220#, amateur boxer with a solid chin. As I am trying to decide between a head shot (you lose power the further you punch above shoulder height) or a body shot, the SOB swings on me. Major windmill punch, I ducked a punch, for the first time in my life.
After his whiff and with his back to me I gave him a shove, he went flying to the ground and collapsed a couple lawn chairs. He did not get up so I just walked away. I think no way in hell would I had been able to do that if I was not good on the bench. Same thing with college football, pushing people out of the way is just like benching.


I will say the bench is the most important combine event. I kind of wished back in the day I would have tried to see how many times I could put up 225. I played HS and College football before the combine was installed.
225 was just a warm up weight.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I only remember Renaldo Nehemiah out of that group. I would be real curious
what combine skill test was the best indicator of future success per position playing in the NFL. I think bench might be important for O-line and D-line as O-line now can grab and hold. Grabbing and shoving someone out of the way
I would think someone benching a lot would be good at.


Personal experience, I benched a lot back in the day. I got in a fight at the finish line at Santa Anita with some 6'9" 300#+ drunk dude. I have a liberal friend in Cali that will back up that story. As he was talking crap to me, as the cool customer I am, I am plotting strategy for a fight. I was 6' even and a solid 220#, amateur boxer with a solid chin. As I am trying to decide between a head shot (you lose power the further you punch above shoulder height) or a body shot, the SOB swings on me. Major windmill punch, I ducked a punch, for the first time in my life.
After his whiff and with his back to me I gave him a shove, he went flying to the ground and collapsed a couple lawn chairs. He did not get up so I just walked away. I think no way in hell would I had been able to do that if I was not good on the bench. Same thing with college football, pushing people out of the way is just like benching.


I will say the bench is the most important combine event. I kind of wished back in the day I would have tried to see how many times I could put up 225. I played HS and College football before the combine was installed.
225 was just a warm up weight.

YouTube

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQp...pringsteenVEVO

My body is trash now and most who have had my injuries are either dead or in a wheel chair. Some days it may be a struggle but I still walk upright. I suffer from debilitating pain that is hard to get treatment for because of the "opioid crisis". Some times thinking back to a fond memory of the past brightens my day, when things look bleak. Until I can improve my current life I suppose living in the past is comforting.

[rastajenk]

I remember John Ross. The Bengals wasted a high pick on him. They didn't need something like that, and he wasn't very good. One of the Bengals worst first-rounders, and that's sayin' something.

[Inner Dirt]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-justin-fields


Looks like NFL insiders strongly think the Bears draft Williams.


That is awesome, it will keep Washington from making that dumb mistake if he was there at #2 or from trading up.