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From XpressBet Wagering/Analysis Guide.
Race 3
Division Debut: 2007
Favorites: Win 27%
In-The-Money 54%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $26.58
Exacta: $313.11
Trifecta: $3,957.78
Superfecta: $41,852.31
2017 Filly & Mare Sprint:
66-1 stunner Bar of Gold rallied from 13th of 14
for a dramatic nose victory that keyed a $176,390
$1 superfecta payoff. Unique Bella, the 6-5 favorite,
set the pace before wilting to seventh.
The $135.40 payoff for Bar of Gold last year nearly
doubled the average payout in this race’s history
from $13.39 to $26.58 and increased average
exotic payoffs by a factor of 2 to 4 times.
Both F&M Sprints held at Churchill were won
following preps in the Thoroughbred Club of
America at Keeneland. The Lexington fall meet has
produced 6 of 11 winners of this race, including last
year with Bar of Gold exiting the Spinster.
Finest City and Bar of Gold each turned back in
distance to win the last 2 F&M Sprint editions; that
had not happened in the event’s first 9 years.
3-year-olds are a paltry 31: 0-2-4 in this race,
topped by runner-up finishes by Indian Blessing
(2008) and Switch (2011).
F&M Sprint pacemakers own an 11: 0-1-1 record in
this race, including favored Unique Bella last year.
Pacesetter La Verdad (2015) finished second at
Keeneland in Kentucky.
Jockey Joel Rosario boasts a 6: 1-3-1 record with
his last 6 mounts in the F&M Sprint.
Race 4
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 2008
Favorites: Win 40%
In-The-Money 60%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $25.16
Exacta: $229.58
Trifecta: $2,362.82
Superfecta: $23,142.46
2017 Turf Sprint:
Trainer Peter Miller not only notched his first
Breeders’ Cup victory, but did so with a 1-2 finish
as Stormy Liberal (30-1) returned from a June
layoff to edge stablemate Richard’s Boy (13-1).
Later in the day, the barn would also win the Sprint
with Roy H.
Know This
Jockeys Joel Rosario and Flavien Prat have been
superb in recent Turf Sprints. Rosario is 4: 2-0-1
with his last four mounts; in the last two years Prat
has a win and a second.
The Turf Sprint has been won by horses prepped
or based in the Midwest all 3 times it has been held
in Kentucky-- Chamberlain Bridge (CD), Regally
Ready (CD) and Mongolian Saturday (Kee).
Turf Sprint pacemakers have a win (Regally
Ready) and a second (Central City) in 2 editions at
Churchill Downs.
6 of 10 Turf Sprint winners have been age 5 or
older. Bobby’s Kitten (2014) is the only 3-year-old
to have won.
Only 1 foreign-bred has won the Turf Sprint -
Obviously-IRE (2016).
No horse campaigned exclusively overseas has
finished in the money in 10 Turf Sprint editions.
Race 5
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 2007
Favorites: Win 18%
In-The-Money 27%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $24.22
Exacta: $224.76
Trifecta: $2,389.35
Superfecta: $16,026.31
2017 Dirt Mile:
Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Battle of
Midway out-gamed speedster Sharp Azteca to win
by one half-length. At 14-1, it marked trainer Jerry
Hollendorfer’s second Dirt Mile upset. He also won
with Dakota Phone (2010) at 37-1.
Know This
The Dirt Mile has produced a $25-plus $2 win
mutuel in 5 of 11 editions.
In the last 8 years sophs have had 7 Dirt Mile exacta
finishes, including victories by Caleb’s Posse (2010),
Goldencents (2013) and Battle of Midway (2017).
California-based horses have won the Dirt Mile 5
times in 11 years, including Dakota Phone (2010) at
Churchill Downs.
Don’t over-emphasize a most recent prep race as 9
of 11 Dirt Mile victors have lost final tune-ups.
Bob Baffert has saddled the Dirt Mile beaten
favorite in the past 2 years: Dortmund (3-5, 4th)
and Mor Spirit (2-1, 8th).
West coast-based jockeys - Flavien Prat, Mike
Smith, Rafael Bejarano (twice) and Corey Nakatani
- have won the Dirt Mile in 5 of the last 6 years.
Two-time winner Goldencents has been the only
wire-to-wire Dirt Mile champ.
Race 6
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1999
Favorites: Win 21%
In-The-Money 74%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $21.37
Exacta: $156.52
Trifecta: $1,532.03
Superfecta: $10,806.11
2017 Filly & Mare Turf:
The heartwarming comeback tale of Lady Eli came
to a disappointing conclusion as the 3-2 favorite
finished a troubled seventh. Instead, Godolphin’s
Wuheida flipped the script in her Prix de l’Opera
re-match with Coolmore’s Rhododendron,
providing a 1-2 finish for the global powerhouses.
Know This
North Americans own an 11-8 edge over
Europeans. Euros seek their first three-peat
following Wuheida (2016) and Queen’s Trust (2017).
Trainer Aidan O’Brien is a paltry 11: 0-2-2 in here.
Great Britain-bred runners have won this race 9
times, including back-to-back the last two years.
Two preps have produced more than half of the 19
F&M Turf winners: Belmont’s Flower Bowl (6) and
Keeneland’s First Lady (4).
Pacemakers have accounted for 2 wins and 3
in-the-money finishes from 19 editions.
California-prepped runners are 0-for-43 all-time in
the F&M Turf with 5 in-the-money finishes
Five 3-year-olds have won the F&M Turf--all
Europeans, including Wuheida and Queen’s Trust in
the past 2 years.
In the past 7 years Foreign-bred runners have
accounted for 13 of 21 trifecta placings.
Race 7
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 24%
In-The-Money 44%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $20.81
Exacta: $274.85
Trifecta: $2,638.62
Superfecta: $31,334.90
2017 Sprint:
Trainer Peter Miller capped a day of dash successes
when Roy H outdueled pacemaker Imperial Hint by
one length, adding to the barn’s earlier Turf Sprint
score with Stormy Liberal. Defending Sprint champ
and 7-5 chalk Drefong disappointed in sixth.
Know This
Of the last 5 defending Sprint Champions to
compete, only 2014 runner-up Secret Circle has
even hit the board. 2016 winner Drefong was 6th
last year at 7-5 odds.
9 consecutive Sprint winners were making their
first starts in the race.
The last 4 Sprint exactas have been swept by
horses that were in the top 4 after the opening
half-mile - 1-2 duelers the last 2 years finished first
and second.
California-based runners have won 8 of the last 12
Sprints, including 2 straight (Drefong, Roy H).
3yos have won 3 of the last 6 Sprints: Trinniberg
(2012), Runhappy (2015) & Drefong (2016).
The leading Sprint prep is the Santa Anita Sprint
Championship (formerly Ancient Title) with 6
winners – including Roy H a year ago. 3 of the last
4 Sprint editions at Churchill have been won by
graduates of this prep: Kona Gold (2000),
Thor’s Echo (2006) & Amazombie (2011).
Race 8
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 35%
In-The-Money 50%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $22.21
Exacta: $300.62
Trifecta: $7,840.06
Superfecta: $34,283.37
2017 Mile:
5-2 favorite World Approval gave trainer Mark
Casse his fourth BC win in the last 3 years and
jockey John Velazquez his third career victory in
the Mile - Da Hoss (1998) & Wise Dan (2012).
Know This
American domination in the Mile continued last
year, marking the home team’s 6th score in the last
7 years. In that time US-based runners also have
accounted for 15 of 21 trifecta placings.
The Woodbine Mile has produced a top 3 BC
Mile finisher in 10 of the last 11 years, including 4
winners. Court Vision exited that tune-up before
winning the 2011 Mile, most recent at Churchill.
Boxcar payoffs have been a Mile staple at Churchill
with 5 of 8 winners posting 10-1 odds or more
upsets – including Court Vision $131.60, Opening
Verse $55.40, Miesque’s Approval $50.60.
Nine females have won the Mile, more than any
open Breeders’ Cup division. Tepin (2015) is the
most recent.
6 of the last 8 Mile winners were age 5 or older.
4 of the last 6 Mile winners competed during the
Keeneland Fall Meet.
Singletary (2004) was the last California-based
winner of the Mile.
Race 9
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 41%
In-The-Money 56%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $18.04
Exacta: $120.16
Trifecta: $1,430.38
Superfecta: $5,039.06
2017 Distaff:
Sophomores finished second through sixth, but
it was late-running 5-year-old Forever Unbridled
that scored the half-length decision. Jockey
John Velazquez earned his second Distaff victory
(Ashado 2004).
Know This
California-prepped runners have been shut out in
8 Distaffs at Churchill Downs. Winners have exited
races in New York (5), Kentucky (2) and Canada (1).
At least one 3-year-old has been in the Distaff
exacta in each of the last 8 years, including Abel
Tasman as runner-up a year ago.
While 3-year-olds have had 10 Distaff wins overall,
only 3 came with fillies making initial starts against
elder rivals (Untapable, Ashado, Dance Smartly).
6 of the last 7 Distaff winners returned less than
$10 for a $2 win wager– averaging $8.40. Favorites
are just 3 for the last 13 in this race.
3 preps have dominated the Distaff, accounting
for nearly 80% of the winners: Spinster (10 wins),
Beldame (9) and Zenyatta (8).
In the last 5 Distaffs, the only pacemaker to
hang on for a share of the exacta was runner-up
Songbird (2016). The last wire-to-wire winner was
Royal Delta (2012).
Race 10
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 26%
In-The-Money 62%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $21.54
Exacta: $159.46
Trifecta: $1,133.41
Superfecta: $15,371.42
2017 Turf:
14-1 shot Talismanic upset a field of 13 that
included defending champion Highland Reel,
who settled for third as the 7-5 favorite. It marked
Frenchman Andre Fabre’s fifth BC training victory
and first since 2005.
Know This
15 of the last 19 Turf winners were prepped in
Europe, including 3 straight (Found, Highland Reel
and Talismanic). The last 4 Turf editions at Churchill
also were won by horses with European preps.
Favorites have lost 8 consecutive Turfs and the
average $2 win payoff during that drought is
$20.90 (no winners at less than $9.60).
Favorites have blanked in all 8 Turf renewals at
Churchill - average $2 mutuel $28.35.
Since 1995, the only Turf winner prepped in
California was dead-heater Johar (2003).
In the last 10 years, Little Mike (2012) is the only
Turf winner raced exclusively in the US.
Fillies Found (2015) at age 3, Pebbles (1985) and
Miss Alleged (1991) at age 4 have won the Turf. No
horse over age 5 has won taken this race.
While no Arc de Triomphe winner has won the Turf
in the same year (6: 0-2-1); the Arc de Triomphe (9
wins) and Turf Classic at Belmont (6) are the most
productive Turf preps.
Race 11
Stats & Trends
Division Debut: 1984
Favorites: Win 26%
In-The-Money 59%
Average $2 Payoffs
Win: $25.77
Exacta: $200.22
Trifecta: $3,097.93
Superfecta: $76,996.43
2017 Classic:
Defending champion and 2-1 favorite Arrogate
finished fifth behind a 1-2-3 carousel led by second
betting choice Gun Runner. He became the third
wire-to-wire Classic champ in the last 4 years.
Know This
Three straight Classic winners were idle since
racing during the Saratoga meet: American
Pharoah (2015 Travers), Arrogate (2016 Travers)
and Gun Runner (2017 Woodward).
The last 3 Classics at Churchill Downs were won
by NYRA-prepped horses: Drosselmeyer, Blame
(Belmont) and Invasor (Saratoga).
Of 8 Classic winners at Churchill, only Tiznow
(2000) prepped in California. Dimmed ‘Hollywood’
stars include Zenyatta, Lava Man, Game on Dude,
Silver Charm and Best Pal.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup (7 wins) and Awesome
Again (6 wins) are most productive Classic preps.
The last 6 Classic winners have been within 2
lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.
Bob Baffert won 3 straight Classics from 2014-’16.
West Coast and Collected were 2nd & 3rd last year.
11 European raiders have finished in the money in
the Classic, including winners Arcangues (1993)
and Raven’s Pass (2008). Most recently, Toast of
New York (2014) was runner-up.
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