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03-17-2019, 03:50 AM
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#646
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE - R#7- 1200M C2 (6F)T
..4-2-5 W/ 8-6-7
..4:00 AM EST
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03-17-2019, 04:11 AM
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#647
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE - R#7- 1200M C2 (6F)T
..4-2-5 W/ 8-6-7
..4:00 AM EST
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5-8-7-6 Dutch Win 9% Profit Margin Passed /$21.50 Quinella & $107.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!
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03-17-2019, 04:48 AM
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#648
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
R#8- 2000M G1 (10F)T
..1-4-2 W/ 5-8-3
..4:35 AM EST
(May sub (5, 8, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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3-1-14-2 Dutch Loss 22% Profit Margin-Passed //$15.40 Quinella
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03-17-2019, 05:01 AM
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#649
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE - R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T
10-2-4 W/ 5-11-9
.5:15 AM EST
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03-17-2019, 05:28 AM
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#650
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE - R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T…10-2-4 W/ 5-11-9 ….5:15 AM EST
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11-10-2-4– Dutch Loss 44% Profit Margin – Passed /$7.30 Quinella & $258.80 Triple Bx (And a Big unplayable Quartet)/ ALL of that one!
** Dutch Win Quota Reached (After Race #7)– hitting 3 of 4 playable races which produced an O.A. Profit Margin of 68%.
Last edited by Nitro; 03-17-2019 at 05:35 AM.
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03-17-2019, 05:42 AM
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#651
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE - R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T...3-4-10 W/ 13-1-7
.5:50 AM EST
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03-17-2019, 06:01 AM
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#652
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE - R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T...3-4-10 W/ 13-1-7 ….5:50 AM EST
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9-10-8-7– Dutch Loss 19% Profit Margin-Passed
It turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 68%, and came from hitting 3 of 4 playable races. There were also quite a few decent verticals.
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03-19-2019, 09:42 PM
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#653
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,793
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. March 20, 2019
56th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 70 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: S 5 to 10 mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course B, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190320_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Never Better (2-1) Hes 1 for 45 lifetime and is handled by a 4% trainer, Ill take my chances.
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 447 (Winners: 6th, 9th & 11th, Second: 2nd)
Race 4 Chiu Chow Kid (7-1)
Race 417 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 3rd)
Race 5 Applause (9-2)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Victory Boys (8-1)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 3 Insayshable (3-1)
Race 4 Happy Warrior (8-5)
Race 6 Special Stars (7-2)
Race 7 Gamechangers (6-1)
Race 8 Har Har Heart (7-1)
Horses for courses running tonight:
None
Distance specialists running tonight:
None
Class specialists running tonight:
None
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (8-5) Was coming off a front running win while the favourite was encountering trouble, and was getting the aid of a front running bias that night at Happy Valley. In here he was unlucky at the draw getting the 12 post, and due to that Purton decided to take him back heading into the first turn, but was still unable to get over and went into 3 wide. On the backside Zac grew impatient and moved him to the front and was able to get clear heading into the final turn, looked a winner halfway thru the stretch but was engaged at the 100 metres mark and had to fight to the wire with the eventual winner Rulethroost.
Race 7 Waldorf (9-5) Drew the 2 post with a very slow starter under him in Cheeky Bee, and as figured broke well and was able to get to the rail without any effort. Settled mid-pack heading into the back stretch while chasing Dream Come True who eventually tired in the stretch, when he did enter the stretch the 7 pound bugboy tried to get him to get thru on the rail but was blocked by Special Stars and the tiring front runner. He rebroke and was finishing well when room became available but just missed against a $176 winner High Five, and he galloped out well afterwards.
Past watch list runners running tonight:
None
Key Plays:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (8-5)
Race 6 Speedy King (7-1)
Race 7 Waldorf (9-5)
Longshots:
Race 5 The Show (12-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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03-20-2019, 12:04 AM
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#654
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 3/20/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-1 (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,
Post Time Race #1 7:15 AM WED EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T
5-1-2 W/ 6-11-12
.7:15 AM
(May sub (6, 11, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..9-3-8 W/ 4-6-12
..
7:45 AM
(May sub (4, 6, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#3 1800M C1 (9F)T
..2-4-1 W/ 3-5---
...8:15 AM
(May sub (3, 5) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
..1-4-7 W/ 2-9-3
...8:45 AM
(May sub (2, 9, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..3-11-6 W/ 5-8-12
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9:15 AM
(May sub (5, 8, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#6- 1000M C3 (5F)T
...1-5-2 W/ 10-4-8
..9:45 AM
(May sub (10, 4, 8) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
....7-3-5 W/ 2-8-4
...10:15 AM
(May sub (2, 8, 4) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..3-6-10 W/ 8-5-11
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9:50 AM
(May sub (8, 5, 11) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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03-20-2019, 01:00 PM
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#655
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T
5-1-2 W/ 6-11-12
.7:15 AM
(May sub (6, 11, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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3-12-11-2 Dutch Loss 87% Margin/
Quote:
R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..9-3-8 W/ 4-6-12
..
7:45 AM
(May sub (4, 6, 12) into top 3 & may add #7 to bot 3 if live tote dictates)
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8-12-11-9 Dutch Win 79% Margin/ $27.30 Quinella
Quote:
R#3 1800M C1 (9F)T
..2-4-1 W/ 3-5---
...8:15 AM
(May sub (3, 5) into top 3 & may add #8 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
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1-6-2-4 Big Dutch Win 144% Margin/
Quote:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T
..1-4-7 W/ 2-9-3
...8:45 AM
(May sub (2, 9, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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8-4-1-7 Dutch Loss 35% Margin-Passed/
Quote:
R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T
..3-6-5 W/ 11-8-12 Sub #5 (good action) for #11 (minimal action)
.
9:15 AM
(May sub (5, 8, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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9-11-4-2 Dutch Loss 23% Margin-Passed/
Quote:
R#6- 1000M C3 (5F)T
...1-5-2 W/ 10-4-8
..9:45 AM
(May sub (10, 4, 8) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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3-7-4-9 Dutch Loss 165% Margin/
Quote:
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
....7-3-5 W/ 2-8-4
...10:15 AM
(May sub (2, 8, 4) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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7-3-9-2 Dutch Win 86% Margin/ $20.80 Quinella
Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..3-6-10 W/ 8-5-11
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9:50 AM
(May sub (8, 5, 11) into top 3 & may if live tote dictates)
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10-7-9-11 Big Dutch Win 205% Margin/
It was another very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 57% and was hit from the 4 of 6 playable races.
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03-23-2019, 09:55 PM
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#656
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,793
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. March 24, 2019
57th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 70 Degrees Cloudy 40% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20mph.
Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course C+3, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190324_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Flying Noble (7-2) Won his last at this class level while holding off Never Better who had all kinds of trouble, now is picking up 6 more pounds and Purton has decided to ride the 1 for 44 Triumphant Light instead of Yips runner in here.
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 447 (Winners: 6th, 9th & 11th, Second: 2nd) Class 4
Race 1 Surewin (43-1)
Race 223 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 7th)
Race 2 Happy Winner (142-1)
Race 417 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 3rd)
Race 3 HK Tourbillon (37-1)
Race 4 Hearts Keeper (11-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Otouto (6-1)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 7 Time To Celebrate (3-1)
Race 7 Easy Go Easy Win (5-1)
Race 7 Right Choice (6-5)
Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Right Choice (6-5)
Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 6 Goko (3-1)
Class specialists running tonight:
None
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 4 Prince Of Gems (2-1) After winning his debut for fun and drawing the 2 post with the short run to the turn at 1200 metres, he looked the part of a very heavy favourite which he was. He broke well and Zac put him into a nice striking position while chasing Poon on Bullish Brother who eventually finished a well beaten ninth. In the turn he started to climb on Purton refusing to relax, at the 820 mark he had to be taken up when Poon put the brakes on the leader (he was reprimanded for it) and Zac ran right up on him. Then in the stretch when he was trying to make a winning move by splitting the top two Moreira's mount Beauty Applause drifted in on Prince Of Gems forcing him to be taken up again. Purton gave him a few whacks to see what was left in him but there wasn't much of a response so he wrapped up on him for the last 50 metres.
Race 7 Time To Celebrate (3-1) Drew a small Class 2 field with a favourable draw, he broke well and Zac placed him at the rear in a nice comfortable gallop down the backside. At the 750 mark he was ready to go but his rider wasn't so Purton grabbed him up saving him for the stretch run, at the 570 mark he caught de Sousa daydreaming on Superich and herded him into the back of Gold Chest, within a few strides the race ceased to be a competition and he quickly drew away without any urging from the rider. By the time they reached the wire he was in a full canter with his ears picked straight up, there should be plenty in the tank, and he only picked up 10 rating points which will keep him in Class 2 hopefully next time he appears on the track.
Past watch list runners running tonight:
None
Key Plays:
Race 7 Time To Celebrate (3-1)
Longshots:
Race 10 Kings Shield (12-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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03-24-2019, 12:22 AM
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#657
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 3/24/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Im posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf & 2 on the dirt: (Classes from top to bottom) (1)-Class-2, (4)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5
Post Time Race #1 12:45 AM SUN EST
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values of the selected entries add up to decent return.
Good Luck if youre playing!
R#1- 1400M C5 (7F)T
.8-11-3 W/ 12-1-6
12:45 AM EST
(May sub (12, 1, 6) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T
.3-8-1 W/ 9-5-12
.1:15 AM EST
(May sub (9, 5, 12) into top 3 & (12) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#3- 1200M C5 (6F)T.
3-7-2 W/ 4-9-12
...1:45 AM EST
(May sub (4, 9, 12) into top 3 & (11) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D
..1-2-9 W/ 5-7-10
.2:15 AM EST
(May sub (5, 7, 10) into top 3 & (11) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T
..2-9-12 W/ 3-4-8
3:05 AM EST
(May sub (3, 4, 8) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#6- 1000M C3 (5F)T
..7-5-8 W/ 1-12-13
.3:40 AM EST
(May sub (1,12,13) into top 3 & (9) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#7- 1600M C2 (8F)T
..2-4-9 W/ 3-1---
..4:10 AM EST
(May sub (3, 1 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T
..1-4-6 W/ 5-10-7
..4:40 AM EST
(May sub (5, 10, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
R#9- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D
1-7-2 W/ 6-11-8 .5:15 AM EST
(May sub (6, 11, 8) into top 3 & (9) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T...2-4-3 W/ 6-12-5
.5:50 AM EST
(May sub (6, 12,5) into top 3 & (10) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
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03-24-2019, 12:26 AM
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#658
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
(May sub (12, 1, 6) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
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When viewing the live tote, what "dictates" the subbing of one, or more of the bottom three Nitro? And who gets bounced? In this scenario, would 3 be the first toss or would you base the deletion based on one of the three horses odds?
Last edited by Ramblin; 03-24-2019 at 12:32 AM.
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03-24-2019, 01:03 AM
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#659
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramblin
When viewing the live tote, what "dictates" the subbing of one, or more of the bottom three Nitro? And who gets bounced? In this scenario, would 3 be the first toss or would you base the deletion based on one of the three horses odds?
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The tote analysis I use will generally provide me with the indicators I need to make any changes.
Theres a lot involved and too much to offer an explanation here.
Race #1
Code:
4 10 15 P F
383 287 250 247 1 3 2
744 659 581 560 2 3
522 470 452 448 3 6
633 588 587 587 4
291 389 381 377 5
501 403 369 367 6 5
440 424 392 391 7 4
361 267 251 250 8 1
441 481 470 465 9
273 470 460 456 10
326 291 282 273 11 2
505 448 444 437 12 4
574 700 609 613 13 1
534 536 528 528 14
398 379 358 354
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03-24-2019, 01:09 AM
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#660
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
The tote analysis I use will generally provide me with the indicators I need to make any changes.
Theres a lot involved and too much to offer an explanation here.
Race #1
Code:
4 10 15 P F
383 287 250 247 1 3 2
744 659 581 560 2 3
522 470 452 448 3 6
633 588 587 587 4
291 389 381 377 5
501 403 369 367 6 5
440 424 392 391 7 4
361 267 251 250 8 1
441 481 470 465 9
273 470 460 456 10
326 291 282 273 11 2
505 448 444 437 12 4
574 700 609 613 13 1
534 536 528 528 14
398 379 358 354
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Thanks, best wishes the balance of the card.
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