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Old 09-05-2022, 12:07 AM   #271
Spalding No!
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Pincay eased Sham in the Belmont because he felt something wrong with the horse.

A couple of weeks after the race the horse was found to have a fractured leg.
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Old 09-05-2022, 11:13 AM   #272
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Using today's methods Beyer gave Secretariat a 139 for the Belmont. Isn't that the highest ever?
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Old 09-05-2022, 06:27 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Pincay eased Sham in the Belmont because he felt something wrong with the horse.

A couple of weeks after the race the horse was found to have a fractured leg.
I don't remember any details. I was just starting my journey into racing, but I found this.

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The fracture occurred “about 11 days after Belmont,” according to Sham's trainer Frank (Poncho) Martin, but was not confirmed by X‐rays until three days ago. Sham is reportedly insured for $1.5‐million.
https://www.nytimes.com/1973/07/07/a...tured-leg.html
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:31 AM   #274
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I just hope Flightline runs in the BC Classic, and both world cup races, Pegasus and Dubai. But the way racing is now, he'll probably be retired soon.
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:37 AM   #275
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I just hope Flightline runs in the BC Classic, and both world cup races, Pegasus and Dubai. But the way racing is now, he'll probably be retired soon.
Think they've been quoted as saying they want to run him next year. Also thought I heard they could care less about sending him to the middle east.
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:52 AM   #276
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Think they've been quoted as saying they want to run him next year. Also thought I heard they could care less about sending him to the middle east.
The middle east should not be even discussed. Country Grammar was sadly the final evidence that Flightline is much better than those competing over there.

I was 8 when Secretariat won and I thought I had seen the greatest ever but now I am not so sure. I'd like him to race another year, the industry could sure use the national attention, and will wait for his next race.

What can he do if he is really asked for his best?
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Old 09-06-2022, 11:20 AM   #277
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I hope Life is Good makes it to the Classic. Not that I think Flightline can’t do it, but I’d like to see him chase LIG, challenge him fairly early, and see if he can put him away and still draw off on a track that’s a little tougher on speed than DMR was today.

On my figures it was so obviously the highest ranked non trip adjusted dirt performance in decades I don't even have to calculate numbers. IMO it was better than anything Ghostzapper, Arrogate, or Gun Runner ever did. However, according to my metrics it was achieved on a surface that was very conducive to a very fast horse running a huge top. So I'd say, don't expect a repeat performance next time. Expect a more mortal like effort and a more competitive finish if he has to put away LIG first.
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Old 09-06-2022, 12:14 PM   #278
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Flightline makes the Classic a tough betting race for me.

Makings of a a very nice horserace , just not my type for betting.

I feel that a win could be a victory march to the breeding shed.

Epicenter seems like he could gradually improve as far beyond the 3yo season as team-Epicenter wants.

it's a horse race and things like health aslso matter.
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Old 09-06-2022, 03:17 PM   #279
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As a figure maker myself, I love doing numbers for a big performance like this.
My numbers are a close variation of the Quirin style pace-n-speed method. The par for older male Grade 1 runners is around 112-114.
By my Humble Numbers I gave Flightline a 124.

I make Quirin figs, too, 113 is my par for G1 older males,
I gave him a 127-126-129! Yikes!
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Old 09-06-2022, 08:33 PM   #280
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Flightline makes the Classic a tough betting race for me.

Makings of a a very nice horserace , just not my type for betting.

I feel that a win could be a victory march to the breeding shed.

Epicenter seems like he could gradually improve as far beyond the 3yo season as team-Epicenter wants.

it's a horse race and things like health aslso matter.
If he wins the BCC he will be retired, maybe run in the Pegasus and that is it. He won't run as a four year old someone will offer millions to ship him off. Sorry, but if he retires 7-7 I can't consider him one of the greatest ever. You need to run at least 10 races for consideration.
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:03 PM   #281
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If he wins the BCC he will be retired, maybe run in the Pegasus and that is it. He won't run as a four year old someone will offer millions to ship him off. Sorry, but if he retires 7-7 I can't consider him one of the greatest ever. You need to run at least 10 races for consideration.
he's brilliant
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:08 PM   #282
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It could be argued that the Beyer figure may be a tad low even, based on the 126 every single horse regressed in the race from their previous past couple races, some considerably.

Now a couple I would argue, like Royal Ship and Extra Hope really dont want 10F but Country Grammer does and he didnt improve at all in his second off layoff at his preferred distance.
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Old 09-06-2022, 10:27 PM   #283
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If he wins the BCC he will be retired, maybe run in the Pegasus and that is it. He won't run as a four year old someone will offer millions to ship him off. Sorry, but if he retires 7-7 I can't consider him one of the greatest ever. You need to run at least 10 races for consideration.
It should be noted that he is running as a 4 year old this year.

That said, I am probably also in the "you need at least 10 starts to be an all-time great" camp. Up till then you've simply had brilliant/great performances in my book. Others are welcome to have lower thresholds.

My all-time greats also wear the same silks every race once they start reeling off those great performances, and their ownership line doesn't need an "et al." at the end. (Get off my lawn!)
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Old 09-07-2022, 08:38 AM   #284
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It could be argued that the Beyer figure may be a tad low even, based on the 126 every single horse regressed in the race from their previous past couple races, some considerably.

Now a couple I would argue, like Royal Ship and Extra Hope really dont want 10F but Country Grammer does and he didnt improve at all in his second off layoff at his preferred distance.
Beyer didn't split the day at all other than the first race (that was a slow paced race). So I don't think it was a complicated day to make figures.

The argument for the rest of the field declining is that they were chasing a horse that was running very fast splits. While those splits were comfortable for Flightline, they weren't comfortable for the inferior horses trying to stay within striking distance of him. They were being used. I'm not saying that necessarily happened here, but it's not uncommon. Personally, 126 seems too low to me as an expression of the performance, but they are his figures, using his input figures, his analysis, and his projections. In my mind, that race was the best I've seen on dirt in who knows how long. I just qualify it by saying the track was conducive to a big number by a very fast horse like him.
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Old 09-07-2022, 10:27 AM   #285
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Flightline

Beyer 126
Bris 117
Timeform 152

Just an amazing horse!
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