Surprising favorites...

[pandy]

Originally Posted by aaron

Nice pick. I think the race we are talking about is somewhat different. In this race we had an over bet horse,who would be considered a”they knew” horse. Certainly at a higher price,this horse could have been bet. At 8/5, I found him hard to bet,but I do believe having Saez greatly contributed to the underlay. One thing you knew is that you had the best rider in the race and you had a potential speed horse from the inside. I believe the GP turf has be speed friendly.

Saez is a special talent for sure, and if the surface is favoring speed, you're right, people know how he can keep a horse alive like no one else.

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am also hoping to get a chance to ask "mmmjjj" the same question.

thas this is what i had (from linesmakers point of view )



1 1-1

9 4-1

5 4-1

2- 5-1

10 15-1



3,6 were notable exclusions
everyone else didn't make parameters

so the sims actually had him overlaid

still u have to make the call based on experience and for me
i stayed away from the race altogether

[mmmjjjj]

here i will give u one that is worse than that one



race 8--#1



if u noticed my post yesterday this is what i had it at

"gulf


race 8---elite appeal ---should he not go chalkk---8-5
---- rosa star ---- i see 9-2 ( instead of 15-1) --- how about you??"



now u may have noticed as they were loading the 1,9 were both 3-1 and the 10 was 5-1

all of a sudden the bots came in and in a heartbeat the 1 was bet to 6-5 while staying steady throughout the gate load and after

i can tell u that he was 5-1 on my line so where was all this money coming from

the sims did not reflect so as a player u have to say ( assuming u believe my sims are the real deal)

this horse has to be live as there has to be money from computer guys plus inside info on track for him to be that low.( and yes i know about the trainers aquisitions but didn't matter the volume of money on the horse was overloaded here !!!

what was good about this example is i wouldn't have touched this horse with monopoly money but u have to respect it

as money that deep is meaningful when u are comparing it to powerful simulations to accompany them . makes sense ??



horse didn't win which played more to my favour because it shows how often they are wrong

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

here i will give u one that is worse than that one



race 8--#1



if u noticed my post yesterday this is what i had it at

"gulf


race 8---elite appeal ---should he not go chalkk---8-5
---- rosa star ---- i see 9-2 ( instead of 15-1) --- how about you??"



now u may have noticed as they were loading the 1,9 were both 3-1 and the 10 was 5-1

all of a sudden the bots came in and in a heartbeat the 1 was bet to 6-5 while staying steady throughout the gate load and after

i can tell u that he was 5-1 on my line so where was all this money coming from

the sims did not reflect so as a player u have to say ( assuming u believe my sims are the real deal)

this horse has to be live as there has to be money from computer guys plus inside info on track for him to be that low.( and yes i know about the trainers aquisitions but didn't matter the volume of money on the horse was overloaded here !!!

what was good about this example is i wouldn't have touched this horse with monopoly money but u have to respect it

as money that deep is meaningful when u are comparing it to powerful simulations to accompany them . makes sense ??



horse didn't win which played more to my favour because it shows how often they are wrong

Do the Florida Derby.

[eqitec]

The graphic below supports your opinion concerning the relevance of Blakey's last two workouts.

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Do the Florida Derby.

As requested

Florida derby projected odds
From my simulations
What the toteboard should look 👀 like

Tiz the law—1-1
Elite indian—7-2
Governor Morris—4-1
Independence hall—9-2
As seen on tv —-16-1
Candy tycoon—20-1
Shivaree—40-1
My first Grammy—60-1
Rogue element—60-1



Gl

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by eqitec

The graphic below supports your opinion concerning the relevance of Blakey's last two workouts.

Nice equitec 👍

[mountainman]

Great topic that in large part boils down to when a player should duck, as opposed to standing his ground.

It's been my experience that favorites I did not foresee more often bite me when I can't comprehend the support. (Please, don't conflate this with chalks I consider fatally flawed. I will bet against those ANYTIME.) Conversely, when I CAN discern the reason(s) that a mere contender or fringe horse gets pounded, but simply disagree about said entrant, I am often correct and the win pool misguided. In other words, if I can SEE AND AM FAMILIAR with what weapons my opponents in the win pool are wielding, I like my chances. Otherwise, I've learned to fold.

I do have a theory proposing one reason that unlikely horses go favored, and it's a belief I touched on in Jason Beem's popular podcast. Modern sharpies possess and hone lots of handicapping tools and weaponry. And it's human nature to want to employ them, even the most obscure and specialized. In fact, ESPECIALLY the most obscure and specialized. Consequently, hard-learned "advanced" angles and factors that should be secondary to handicapping basics often catch FIRE in the win pool and determine who goes favored. Lots of well-schooled players, I think, are soooo proud of their trimmings that they put them before the turkey.

This theory of mine is one reason I constantly warn good handicappers attempting to guestimate final odds to BE REALISTIC. No matter how unique your approach , others almost CERTAINLY see what you do, even if you are super sharp and supplement traditional handicapping resources with extra-info of your own. Hell-ESPECIALLY if you are super sharp and put in the work.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Great topic that in large part boils down to when a player should duck, as opposed to standing his ground.

It's been my experience that favorites I did not foresee more often bite me when I can't comprehend the support. (Please, don't conflate this with chalks I consider fatally flawed. I will bet against those ANYTIME.) Conversely, when I CAN discern the reason(s) that a mere contender or fringe horse gets pounded, but simply disagree about said entrant, I am often correct and the win pool misguided. In other words, if I can SEE AND AM FAMILIAR with what weapons my opponents in the win pool are wielding, I like my chances. Otherwise, I've learned to fold.

Same experience for me.

The one thing I will qualify that with is that I realize that sometimes I don't understand the favorite because my own information and/or understanding is incomplete. But if I understand why the horse is favored and disagree strongly, that's when I want to get involved.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Same experience for me.

The one thing I will qualify that with is that I realize that sometimes I don't understand the favorite because my own information and/or understanding is incomplete. But if I understand why the horse is favored and disagree strongly, that's when I want to get involved.

If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?

In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?

In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".

Why not just bet the horse that makes you fold your hand?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Why not just bet the horse that makes you fold your hand?

Because this isn't a zero-sum game...there is also an onerous takeout to consider. Just because I deem it unprofitable to bet AGAINST these "illogically" bet-down horses doesn't automatically mean that it's profitable to bet ON them. When I have troubling doubts of this nature in mind...I feel it prudent to keep my money in my pocket.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?

In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".

I think the win pool sometimes overrates secondary angles and factors. A good example might be a layup horse with a trainer who rocks with comebacks. At 35%, for instance, they will play in a manner not only allowing that the runner is probably fit, but disregarding staple concerns like field strength, class, and projected flow, they will bet as if the horse is a cinch. Secondary factors like that are sexy, even to smart players, and often overbet.

Another example, centered mainly at smaller venues where most horses that change hands do so by private sale, is the classic switch to a better outfit. Lots of knowledgeable players that should know better figure the horse HAS to win and go over the top on an angle they simply consider sexier than class, speed numbers , or current form.

And don't EVEN get me started on the often premature rush to intuit some type of track bias. (Mahoning denizens, are you listening??) Again, quite apart from the potential profit in accurately discerning a bias sooner than fellow bettors, track bias is simply SEXY to lots of players. Especially PATH bias. Now THAT (potential) factor makes many players swoon. Even more so, in some cases than running -style trends. In fact, I constantly caution Nancy that in doing her bias notes and talking bias on the air it's important to first consider the basics: what running style seems to have some undue advantage, before jumping straight to the sexy stuff: path bias. I realize they usually go hand in hand, but it's important to eat your dinner before ripping into dessert.

Awesome thread, Gus. Stay safe.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because this isn't a zero-sum game...there is also an onerous takeout to consider. Just because I deem it unprofitable to bet AGAINST these "illogically" bet-down horses doesn't automatically mean that it's profitable to bet ON them. When I have troubling doubts of this nature in mind...I feel it prudent to keep my money in my pocket.

Good lord, with my ego it is STILL difficult to admit to myself that some races simply confuse me. But I have learned to. The hard way.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Good lord, with my ego it is STILL difficult to admit to myself that some races simply confuse me. But I have learned to. The hard way.

It hurts me to say this...but my "ego" kept me broke for 20 years. That's how long it took me to finally admit to myself that I couldn't find "value" in almost every race that I encountered.