49ers

[burnsy]

Yeah we will . I love the Bills but I’ve already been disappointed with these losses. But again , it could be a teaching moment. But you can’t blow leads and beat KC. That’s a problem. Cincinnati can help the Bills out . They’re good enough and Joe Burrow is a force .

But that’s why I try to look for different things that win . I think the longer shots worth a bet may be Dallas or Tennessee. I kind of like San Fran for the same reasons. The teams that can run , have the best Offensive line and defensive line can trump the flash . I hate the Cowboys, make fun of them , but they can crush a passer now . It’s been the difference in the Super Bowl games . People always forget how these games have been going . The NFC wins because they get a team with a smothering front line of defense. The 49 ers are built the same way . and they run so does Dallas. Tennessee pretty much is the only AFC team that does that . Their defense is a problem so far this year but they will pound the ball . The running starts short. Then in the 3 rd and 4 th quarter it comes in chunks. It’s sort of a different game plan. That’s why I kind of laugh at TV . The QB and weapons are great . The Bills have that . But many times an offensive line and especially the defensive line can negate a lot . Poor Patrick Mahomes took the beating of his life vs Tampa . And Joe Burrow was lucky not to get hurt last year. They really don’t emphasize what actually wins these games . It’s talked about in passing . The Giants are trying to go back to this and they’re winning . They might need a year or two . But they’re back to what they used to do too. The Jets also. Living here I see almost every New England , Jets , Giants or Bills game .

[Inner Dirt]

I am learning a lesson from last years play-offs when I overrated Tennessee and underrated Cincinnati. Derrick Henry's four lowest rushing totals this year resulted in a record of 1-3. Scheming against Henry seems to be the ticket to beating the Titans. They very likely could have a rematch of last week's game that the Bengals won 20-16 by holding Henry to his lowest total of the season. That would also be a rematch of last years divisional play-off game

where the Bengals stifled Henry again and won 19-16. I would say no thanks to Ten +3000, Cin+2000 might be worth a look.


Dallas+850 who I have always hated, and hated them double, being an ex-49er fan from 1972-2010 and the Washington fan 2011 to present after moving East, definitely has a shot.


They could get Odell Beckham and have a solid ground attack and defense.

They most likely will travel to Tampa Bay that leads the NFC South at 5-6 currently and shows no signs of life.

[rastajenk]

Peeeee-rrrine!

Sorry, Dirt, couldn't help it. But that was a really fun game just now. Bengies can hang with anyone, have head-to-heads over Tenn and KC, and Lamar is injured. So, what's not to be happy about? Total team effort

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Peeeee-rrrine!

Sorry, Dirt, couldn't help it. But that was a really fun game just now. Bengies can hang with anyone, have head-to-heads over Tenn and KC, and Lamar is injured. So, what's not to be happy about? Total team effort

Samaje just had his best career game in yards from scrimmage with 155.
I won't be over looking the Bengals this year in the play-offs.

[burnsy]

49 ers defense on a major roll! Chased Tampa Bay out of town ! How many times has the network changed games in the 3 rd quarter with Tom Brady getting killed ? It’s always been the opposite kind of deal. They have the kind of defense that swarms the opposition. Tampa Bay ? Their offense is offensive this year.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by burnsy

49 ers defense on a major roll! Chased Tampa Bay out of town ! How many times has the network changed games in the 3 rd quarter with Tom Brady getting killed ? It’s always been the opposite kind of deal. They have the kind of defense that swarms the opposition. Tampa Bay ? Their offense is offensive this year.

So far Ryan Succop the place kicker is the most accomplished Mr Irrelavent, when does Brock Purdy get that title? Hopefully Deebo Samuel just has an ankle sprain. I think the 49ers face the Eagles in the NFC Championship game.
They beat Washington and then Minnesota on the way there. I don't see them getting past the Eagles, everything defensive coordinators try on Jalen Hurts fails. The guy seems to improve by the week, he has now passed the point in his young career where previous dual threat QBs were corralled.

Unless the guy takes a bad leg injury that forces him to lose a step he is going to be a d-coordinator's worse nightmare for the next 10 years.


If you are the 49ers, what do you do with Brock Purdy? There is nothing better that a good QB on a rookie deal so you can spend money elsewhere.
Trey Lance will be going on year 3 next year, only played in 8 games and hasn't impressed. Jimmy Garappolo was on a one year deal so he is gone.
I say you ride Purdy until he falls back to Earth, including letting him start 2023 over Lance if he finishes out 2022 on a high note.

[burnsy]

The Bills defense is rounding to form too , injury guys returning. They punished the Pats and Jets the last two weeks . It’s a shame they lost Von Miller cause with home games they be pretty much unstoppable.

I agree, ride with Purdy. Those drafts are not a total crap shoot . But they’re kind of like buying a race horse. Sometimes the “one “ no one wants , ends up being a gem . Brady is near the end and he played a guy yesterday that, like him , no one really wanted . The Goat 🐐 got kicked around in the draft too. Purdy gets the Pro passing game and that’s a huge helper. He recognizes the defense and who should get the ball ………. Quickly. That’s like more than half the game right there .

Like I said the Eagles deserve favoritism . But I love teams that don’t give up more than 20 points a game . I would have to see the spread because obviously the game is most likely in Philly . And if the Moneyline is lopsided. I would consider the 49ers a bet . Of course , there’s plenty of football 🏈 left . These top teams can’t afford injuries. Because at this point being healthy is the difference.

The teams that don’t give up many points in the second half have been winning over the more offensive team . It’s just been working . The tv people won’t say it because it’s not flashy . Well , a couple will but they’re outnumbered. Rex Ryan was talking about winning the SB with the best defense and a ok offense. He’s absolutely right about that . But most people don’t really want to admit it . But if you go thru every year of Super Bowls many were won that way . The cliche that defense wins championships , is an old one , but many times if you have the best pitchers in baseball or the best defense in football . It goes a long way towards winning it all.

[Inner Dirt]

I think the Bills fortunes lie with Josh Allen's elbow, that he hurt in the 4th quarter of the loss to Minnesota. He hasn't been the same since then.

[burnsy]

Josh is back . His problem now is the risk taking and forcing . That team is too good , he doesn’t have to take the chances he takes . Which makes me wonder if they’ll make . A turnover in the playoffs can easily send you packing against a good team .

I made a small bet on the 49ers winning the Superbowl and a bigger bet on NFC Champs . Their defense has given up 230 points thru the season which in this day and age is unbelievable. No one else is even close . And I mean by a lot . The focus on the QB is over hype . It’s great to have a name but this kid is doing fine . They are just going to dare you to put up 30 on them and that’s a hard task. It’s the kind of team that can travel and challenge anyone barring one bad showing . They love to get into those under 40 games . Old style ugly football that’s win many a playoff game .

[burnsy]

And that worked out so far . Locked in at +260 down to + 230 on the conference and some books lowered it more than that .

The other thing I talked about the Eagles are having their slump and injury bout at just the wrong time . The season is very long now for playing football. Reeling off dominating wins early is not always a good path anymore. Now they must regroup and get healthy or it won’t end well . They can do it but I wouldn’t want money on that as a fav. Last year the Cardinals were 10-2 , didn’t even make it . The year before the Steelers were like 11-1 or some ridiculous record . Bounced very early on. It just seems better to get the injuries and bad games out early . You gotta be hitting on all cylinders “right now” to have a chance . Even the players know this . Joe Burrow was great in that interview. He is very perceptive and realistic. That’s why he wins . He said expectations to win every game or be 17-0 is just not reality . They are a dangerous team because they understand rounding to form and coming on strong late. They did it last year and they are looking like that again . The game tonight with the Bills is a battle of two of the best . Must watch TV for me . Go Bills !