The 20 Cent Jackpot Six coming to Santa Anita. Wonderful

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...91991329529856

Has anyone done an anal as to which bet handles more? Because I assume the jackpots must be popular given they are proliferating.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[JohnGalt1]

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

If true--it's another track joining the carny sucker bet hall of shame.

Could it be that we are now living in an age where 3 suckers are born every minute?

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

They will make more revenue with it. Probably a lot more. I'm still against this crap. It takes advantage of people who don't know any better IMO. And it set them up for the Whales to rip them off like they normally do.

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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 08-17-2018 at 03:08 PM.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...30020198965248

They will make more revenue with it. Probably a lot more. I'm still against this crap. It takes advantage of people who don't know any better IMO. And it set them up for the Whales to rip them off like they normally do.

Bear in mind that for 98 percent or more of the player pool, all bets are sucker bets.

And in the scheme of things, this is a cheaper sucker bet.

[Prioress Ply]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status...08387161628677

Just like the 2011 increase in takeout was 'temporary' not permanent, right Ritvo?

[jay68802]

And no one saw this coming? The cash cow not being implemented here? Of all places?

[GMB@BP]

So on normal days what is the takeout, 25%? So with 25% on a 70% pool, whats like 50% takeout, right if you are a multiple ticket winner?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So on normal days what is the takeout, 25%? So with 25% on a 70% pool, whats like 50% takeout, right if you are a multiple ticket winner?

It's only good on mandatory payout days.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

It's only good on mandatory payout days.

I disagree.


I've seen many cases where payoffs are very small on those days.

These examples are from my sometimes faulty memory.

Prairie Meadows paid $600+ in their final pick 5 this year.


Golden Gate one year paid $400 because 2 off the turf races were paid for all runners.



Gulfstream paid about $4,000 with many millions in the pool in one mandatory day.


More money is usually paid out during the normal run of this sucker bet.


The best and only times I even think of playing it is if the ticket is so cheap that the loss is inconsequential--like I did a few years ago when I noticed my contenders would cost $6.00. The darn thing hit and paid $60.00--yea me!!


Or if you strongly believe you can take the whole pool.

Good luck with that.

[Poindexter]

My opinion is that for the smaller player the $2 pick six is way too expensive. Obviously a 20 cent jackpot pick 6 with a big percentage being held out is not exactly player friendly, but there are a couple of aspects of the wager that make it tolerable. 1) The amount of money in the pools chasing the jackpot provides better value on more obvious combinations and of course if by miracle you are the only person to bring down the pool you hit the jackpot. It does happen fairly often, so that aspect cannot be dismissed.

As a rule, when looking at the payoffs, compare it to a pick 3 parlay. If the payoff is in the same boat, you are doing okay, if it comes back much lower that excessive take out bit you. I haven't studied it that much, but I believe as that jackpot carryover gets over half a million the payoffs tend to get more fair (more in line with a p3 parlay). The bigger the carryover, the more sucker money that enters the pool.

For the small player, they are likely going to stay in the game putting in $48 into a jackpot pick 6 where they actually have some life and have a chance of hitting (even with a depressed payoff) then they are putting in $48 into a $2 pick six, where they typically have a very tiny chance of winning. I think in terms of enjoyment, the Rainbow Six provides a lot more of it then the $2 pick six (even though the purist will argue that is is a sucker bet).


This decision is more of an attack on syndicates/big $ players. With the current pick 6 method, the $48 will rarely even have a chance of hitting the jackpot, while putting in $3000 to $12,000 plays have a very legitimate chance of bringing home the jackpot when it gets big.

As far as the financial ramifications for so cal racing, I think this decision will probably help, not hurt it. But we will see. The Rainbow Six generally gets very popular when the carryover get's big, regardless of whether there is any chance that day of there being a single ticket jackpot winner.

Honestly I think they should scrap the late pick 5 and offer both on different sets of races, but I think they would have to run 10 races to not impact the two pick 4's they have(jackpot pick six races 3-8 and regular pick six races 5 to 10). Even though both are pick six pools, I think they are largely different markets. The Jackpot Pick Six is more catered to the small, recreational player and even number and lottery players, the $2 Pick Six is more catered to the long time horse player who has been playing it for many years and is comfortable with the risk/reward.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

..... but there are a couple of aspects of the wager that make it tolerable. 1) The amount of money in the pools chasing the jackpot provides better value on more obvious combinations and of course if by miracle you are the only person to bring down the pool you hit the jackpot. It does happen fairly often, so that aspect cannot be dismissed.

The rational that there will be value in the obvious combinations is a poor reason to tolerate this bet. If, in fact, such value did exist it would be quickly diminished by players who watch payouts for values from betting patterns. There is no putting lipstick on this pig.

Originally Posted by Poindexter

This decision is more of an attack on syndicates/big $ players. With the current pick 6 method, the $48 will rarely even have a chance of hitting the jackpot, while putting in $3000 to $12,000 plays have a very legitimate chance of bringing home the jackpot when it gets big.

I agree but ironically it is the big player who usually walks away with the Jackpot.

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Honestly I think they should scrap the late pick 5 and offer both on different sets of races, but I think they would have to run 10 races to not impact the two pick 4's they have(jackpot pick six races 3-8 and regular pick six races 5 to 10). Even though both are pick six pools, I think they are largely different markets. The Jackpot Pick Six is more catered to the small, recreational player and even number and lottery players, the $2 Pick Six is more catered to the long time horse player who has been playing it for many years and is comfortable with the risk/reward.

The 2 P-6 markets do have overlap but I agree they do draw primarily from different markets. The problem is that racetracks don't like tying up betting capital and reducing churn. They kind of have to go with one or the other.

[cj]

This is a terrible bet other than on mandatory payout days which often produce a positive expectation play, but even that is getting iffy. On the big payout days people are betting so much the edge is going away. On other days you're better off playing the Powerball.