View Poll Results: What is your most successful handicapping trait/tool?
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Patience
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40 |
14.18% |
Experience
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48 |
17.02% |
Number crunching
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18 |
6.38% |
Sheets / Thorograph / TimeformUS / DRF / Equibase, etc.
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33 |
11.70% |
Software
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45 |
15.96% |
Very specific races/angles
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30 |
10.64% |
Jockey/Trainer angles
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17 |
6.03% |
Other
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51 |
18.09% |
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08-16-2018, 08:11 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i handicap the races and come up with a horse that i like and think strongly that he is going to win. instead of betting him to win, i bet him to get beat. that is the greatest system in the world.
they have had 5 or 6 vip contests right on this site. i have played in all of them. so far i have yet to pick 1 winner in the contest. its basically perfect for what i need to do. the harder i try the more i lose. you don't need to invest in any computerised programs or special past performances too. there is only upside in this deal.
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08-16-2018, 08:13 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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another benefit is that you are not competing against the crw and gate punchers, just yourself, and i am easy as pie.
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08-16-2018, 02:45 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Most good handicappers agree there's a time during the racing year when 3 year olds begin to have an advantage over their older competition. If you believe that to be correct. When on the calendar does it kick in? Do birth months matter?
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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08-16-2018, 02:58 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,556
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Most good handicappers agree there's a time during the racing year when 3 year olds begin to have an advantage over their older competition. If you believe that to be correct. When on the calendar does it kick in? Do birth months matter?
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Then I mustn't be a good handicapper...because I can't see how a 3-year-old can have an on-track "edge" over a 4-year-old...based on their age alone. I know that the 3-year-old's age-disadvantage lessens as its 3rd year of life progresses into its latter stage...but how does its relative youth and immaturity ever become an ADVANTAGE?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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08-16-2018, 03:03 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Most good handicappers agree there's a time during the racing year when 3 year olds begin to have an advantage over their older competition. If you believe that to be correct. When on the calendar does it kick in? Do birth months matter?
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Interesting read.
"When the three-year-old Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, met the best older horse around twice in the fall of 1978, he simply could not deal with what Seattle Slew brought to the party. Frankly, Affirmed was no match. Taking advantage of being the older one the following year, Affirmed repelled several advances made by the hotshot youngster, Spectacular Bid, in the ‘79 Jockey Club Gold Cup. The result was closer than Affirmed had come to Slew the year before, but still the older horse proved best."
https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...g_on_Older_123
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08-16-2018, 03:05 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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It has to be patience for me.
For about a decade or so my play has been extremely sporadic so its sorta developed on its own. Since I'm a trip/figure capper its not easy for me to sniff out races I like as much anymore. I find myself watching a lot more races than actually playing but I do alright with this and it works for me.
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08-16-2018, 03:06 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Then I mustn't be a good handicapper...because I can't see how a 3-year-old can have an on-track "edge" over a 4-year-old...based on their age alone. I know that the 3-year-old's age-disadvantage lessens as its 3rd year of life progresses into its latter stage...but how does its relative youth and immaturity ever become an ADVANTAGE?
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Because of the weight break three year olds get over the older horses. Another factor is.....think of the horses as people.
2yo's Early teenagers
3yo's Late teeneagers
4 & up College types.
The growth and maturity spurts in the late teenagers will be more dramatic and and applicable than for the College kids who are much closer to ending their growing.
The difference between now and the end of the year has the opportunity to strongly impact the three year olds much more than the older horses. Especially the ones who are 5 and up.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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08-16-2018, 03:16 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 510
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A wise old Trainer once told me that in the 3yo and up races you only need to find the best 3 yo and the best older horse. Dont make more difficult that it needs to be. The same trainer was my best angle, when he went to the window it was time to follow his bet. Some things never change.
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08-16-2018, 03:25 PM
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#54
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Because of the weight break three year olds get over the older horses. Another factor is.....think of the horses as people.
2yo's Early teenagers
3yo's Late teeneagers
4 & up College types.
The growth and maturity spurts in the late teenagers will be more dramatic and and applicable than for the College kids who are much closer to ending their growing.
The difference between now and the end of the year has the opportunity to strongly impact the three year olds much more than the older horses. Especially the ones who are 5 and up.
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Arrogate is a perfect example.
Not even close to being a factor on the Triple Crown trail, and within 3 months took down the best horse in training in California Chrome in the BC Classic.
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08-19-2018, 10:19 AM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
Because of the weight break three year olds get over the older horses. Another factor is.....think of the horses as people.
2yo's Early teenagers
3yo's Late teeneagers
4 & up College types.
The growth and maturity spurts in the late teenagers will be more dramatic and and applicable than for the College kids who are much closer to ending their growing.
The difference between now and the end of the year has the opportunity to strongly impact the three year olds much more than the older horses. Especially the ones who are 5 and up.
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How is going through a growth and maturity spurt the same as having an overall advantage?
It's like saying an 18-year-old who started lifting weights three years ago and is seeing big gains can be as physically strong or impressive as a 22-year-old who has been lifting for 7 years. Except in rare cases of genetic freaks (or steroids), if the work put in and physical potential are equal, they can't.
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08-19-2018, 10:34 AM
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#56
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
How is going through a growth and maturity spurt the same as having an overall advantage?
It's like saying an 18-year-old who started lifting weights three years ago and is seeing big gains can be as physically strong or impressive as a 22-year-old who has been lifting for 7 years. Except in rare cases of genetic freaks (or steroids), if the work put in and physical potential are equal, they can't.
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I think it is an under simplification.
3YOs actually do become better than their elders, IF they are good enough.
The BC Classic is littered with 3YO winners. In the 34 years the BC Classic has been run, here are your winners by age:
3YOs: 12
4YOs: 14
5YOs: 8
Nobody over 5YOs has ever won the race. I have always felt that 4YOs are at their premium racing age, and do handicap towards that belief.
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08-19-2018, 12:06 PM
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#57
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Arrogate is a perfect example.
Not even close to being a factor on the Triple Crown trail, and within 3 months took down the best horse in training in California Chrome in the BC Classic.
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That's because Chrome was piloted by an inept jockey. On turf, its's a rarity that a top 3-year old will defeat a good 4-year old.
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08-19-2018, 12:10 PM
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#58
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
I think it is an under simplification.
3YOs actually do become better than their elders, IF they are good enough.
The BC Classic is littered with 3YO winners. In the 34 years the BC Classic has been run, here are your winners by age:
3YOs: 12
4YOs: 14
5YOs: 8
Nobody over 5YOs has ever won the race. I have always felt that 4YOs are at their premium racing age, and do handicap towards that belief.
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These are highly biased numbers: no great 4, or 5 year olds are racing at that age, they're all retired.
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08-19-2018, 09:28 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
That's because Chrome was piloted by an inept jockey. On turf, its's a rarity that a top 3-year old will defeat a good 4-year old.
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It happens in the Arc fairly often...particularly 3 year old fillies getting a nice weight break.
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08-20-2018, 09:27 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
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[/ATTACH]
Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
On turf, its's a rarity that a top 3-year old will defeat a good 4-year old.
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It's an everyday occurrence in Europe right through the grades - but the following graphic concentrates on UK & IRE 3yo+ Group 1 Flat Turf & Aw Races (over 90% are on turf) since 2008 to currently yesterday - i could have put up similar for Group 2 , 3 , & Listed level and the bias is even more pronounced in our Handicap system - so much that top trainer Mark Johnston regularly calls for a change to a US style claiming system based on prize money. 3yos have a clear advantage over their elders more than likely due to the WFA(Weight For Age) allowance they receive and the table shows a by age breakdown with various metrics including Win/WinPlace Impact Values and Betfair Actual To Expected (A/E)
This allowance was looked at relatively recently by International Handicappers and an adjustment made to try and equalise the advantage. Even if you don't believe the "counting" stats like Win % or Win/Place % or even the impact values or the actual exceeding the expected according to the Betfair Market , then i have added a metric called % of Rivals Beaten which cumulatively measures total position against total runners across the full sample - 3yos come out tops at 51.23% against a par of ever so slightly over 50%.
Last edited by ARAZI91; 08-20-2018 at 09:36 PM.
Reason: misplaced attachment
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