Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
my two cents. i have been using a data base since 2004, and in my observations, the scenario's where the favorites fair poorly are pretty cut and dried. it is simply the larger the race field the more likely the most favored horse in the race is not going to find the winner's circle. the reason is self- evident...the more horses that have to be beat, the more difficult the feat is.
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Out of curiosity, I just queried this from 20180101 to 20180714 for NA horse racing covering 23918 races. Below is the final, track adjusted probability for all winners. Your 2 cents is worth more than that
Code:
mean min max std size
number_of_horses
2 0.661510 0.484529 0.754545 0.153337 3
3 0.426682 0.086458 0.780952 0.155409 37
4 0.369483 0.030826 0.810000 0.165348 350
5 0.314850 0.016129 0.805429 0.160916 1985
6 0.282615 0.020329 0.790476 0.157341 4757
7 0.255267 0.010931 0.790476 0.148384 5087
8 0.232237 0.009336 0.754545 0.140588 4462
9 0.220214 0.010553 0.754545 0.139242 3306
10 0.200269 0.009253 0.771429 0.129277 2669
11 0.197563 0.009529 0.687500 0.129179 772
12 0.180528 0.009318 0.691667 0.115152 506
13 0.136155 0.012353 0.415000 0.105092 22
14 0.103976 0.010506 0.323077 0.079885 21
16 0.265781 0.265781 0.265781 NaN 1
20 0.211538 0.211538 0.211538 NaN 1
Edit: Actually, this doesn't really help. Little too early in the morning for me...