Gulfstream's 10 cent Rainbow 6....Will it be hit before April 24th?

[Vinman]

Here's a recap of Gulfstream's ten cent "Rainbow 6" numbers from opening day, Jan 5th, through today.....

Daily Pool / Carryover / Dime Payoff for 5 of 6
$7,457 / $2,386 / $596.56
$8,885 / $5,230 / $284.33
$11,644 / $8,956 / $2,794.60
$23,628 / $16,517 / $667.12
$24,439 / $24,337 / $510.02
$22,377 / $31,498 / $5,370.48

Any opinions as to whether this bet will be hit prior to the end of Gulfstream's 79 day meet on April 24th?

Because of the "only one ticket can win it" Jackpot nature of the bet, I believe there will be a "megaton" carryover going into closing day, when they must pay out the entire pool....and if this does happen, who knows how much $$$ will be bet into it on 4/24 alone?

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the history of the Beulah Park "Fortune 6", with it's 25 cent minimum and similar "Jackpot" style payoff provision to form an educated guess as to what might happen at Gulfstream. It should be noted that Beulah pays out 40% of their Fortune 6 pool each day the wager goes unhit with a single perfect ticket and carries forward the other 60% (less takeout of course) while Gulfstream pays out 60% of their P6 pool each day on tickets with the most winners and carries over the remaining 40% (less takeout).

Not long after Beulah started offering their Fortune 6, there was a single perfect ticket sold on 3/21/06 worth $179,072.40, a then record for a base wager of under $1.00. On 1/30/07, after the Fortune 6 went unhit for 32 consecutive days, a single ticket took down the entire pool with a payoff of $364,589.50. On that day, $80,908 was bet into the existing carryover of $301,885.78. The cost of the winning ticket was $12,250....at the 25 cent minimum.

The mutuel prices of the Fortune 6 race winners that day were, get this.....

Leg A: $17.80
Leg B: $27.40
Leg C: $19.00
Leg D: $16.40
Leg E: $21.60
Leg F: $35.20

No wonder there was only a single winning ticket. Not even one single digit winner. All of the Beulah info I've posted is on their website, btw.

With the Gulfstream Rainbow 6 just a dime minimum, versus Beulah's .25, along with Gulfstream's much higher betting handle, it is quite reasonable assume that if one Gulfstream bettor somehow manages to hit this thing, two or three or four others will, ensuring that the Rainbow 6 will continue to go unhit, with the carryover building to stratospheric levels. The longer this bet continues to go unhit, the less likely it will be hit by a single ticket as current Gulfstream form gradually establishes itself over the course of the meet.

So as of today's Gulfstream card, with a meet high 5 of 6 payoff of $5,370.48, the Rainbow 6 carryover is already up to $31,498. Let's pretend that one incredibly lucky player doesn't manage to step up with a perfect ticket before day 79 of the meet on 4/24. Anyone care to guess what the closing day carryover might be?

Vinman

[Market Mover]

Originally Posted by Vinman

Here's a recap of Gulfstream's ten cent "Rainbow 6" numbers from opening day, Jan 5th, through today.....

Daily Pool / Carryover / Dime Payoff for 5 of 6
$7,457 / $2,386 / $596.56
$8,885 / $5,230 / $284.33
$11,644 / $8,956 / $2,794.60
$23,628 / $16,517 / $667.12
$24,439 / $24,337 / $510.02
$22,377 / $31,498 / $5,370.48

Any opinions as to whether this bet will be hit prior to the end of Gulfstream's 79 day meet on April 24th?

Because of the "only one ticket can win it" Jackpot nature of the bet, I believe there will be a "megaton" carryover going into closing day, when they must pay out the entire pool....and if this does happen, who knows how much $$$ will be bet into it on 4/24 alone?

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the history of the Beulah Park "Fortune 6", with it's 25 cent minimum and similar "Jackpot" style payoff provision to form an educated guess as to what might happen at Gulfstream. It should be noted that Beulah pays out 40% of their Fortune 6 pool each day the wager goes unhit with a single perfect ticket and carries forward the other 60% (less takeout of course) while Gulfstream pays out 60% of their P6 pool each day on tickets with the most winners and carries over the remaining 40% (less takeout).

Not long after Beulah started offering their Fortune 6, there was a single perfect ticket sold on 3/21/06 worth $179,072.40, a then record for a base wager of under $1.00. On 1/30/07, after the Fortune 6 went unhit for 32 consecutive days, a single ticket took down the entire pool with a payoff of $364,589.50. On that day, $80,908 was bet into the existing carryover of $301,885.78. The cost of the winning ticket was $12,250....at the 25 cent minimum.

The mutuel prices of the Fortune 6 race winners that day were, get this.....

Leg A: $17.80
Leg B: $27.40
Leg C: $19.00
Leg D: $16.40
Leg E: $21.60
Leg F: $35.20

No wonder there was only a single winning ticket. Not even one single digit winner. All of the Beulah info I've posted is on their website, btw.

With the Gulfstream Rainbow 6 just a dime minimum, versus Beulah's .25, along with Gulfstream's much higher betting handle, it is quite reasonable assume that if one Gulfstream bettor somehow manages to hit this thing, two or three or four others will, ensuring that the wager will continue to go unhit, with the carryover building to stratospheric levels. The longer this bet continues to go unhit, the less likely it will be hit by a single ticket as current Gulfstream form gradually establishes itself over the course of the meet.

So as of today's Gulfstream card, with a meet high 5 of 6 payoff of $5,370.48, the Rainbow 6 carryover is already up to $31,498. Let's pretend that one incredibly lucky player doesn't manage to step up with a perfect ticket before day 79 of the meet on 4/24. Anyone care to guess what the closing day carryover might be?

Vinman

As with the Beulah example, as this p6 carryover pool grows larger and larger, you will have more syndicates buying longshot combinations in hopes of hitting it big. So the purpose of the bet no longer becomes who can select the most likely winner, but instead becomes who can cover the more rare ticket combinations. The Beulah winner did just that.

The better approach? Don't wait until the end of the meet, when form will have been better determined. Play the p6 now and cash early on the longshots. Take advantage of the public confusion in the early weeks of this GP p6 introduction. As evidenced by today's results, there's no shame in cashing 4 figures off a dime base wager.

[therussmeister]

If "more syndicates" means two or more, they will wind up canceling each other out.

I always thought there would come a point where the carryover becomes so large it would be impossible for anyone to win the whole pot because all possible combinations would have at least two tickets on it.

[Vinman]

Russmeister.....

The "cancelling out" of the big swinging syndicates is what I'm counting on to keep the Rainbow 6 carryover train chugging along until closing day. Actually I believe the truly professional syndicates will hold off firing their missiles until 4/24. As Market Mover stated, its not about having all the winners, its having the ONLY winning ticket. That requirement goes by the boards on closing day.

[adwplayingfool]

Another 5/6 with $500 payout today, no one person was alive for all the marbles going into race 9.... If someone is going to hit it this year it has to be soon or else it will carry.

[Vinman]

Today's pool took a slight dip to $19,546, yielding a $521.23 payoff for 5 of 6. The carryover inches forward to $37,752 for the meet.

Great 50 cent Pick 5 payoff today of $37,499.95 in a pool of $58.852.

I'm with the previous poster on the Rainbow 6 becoming less and less hittable by a single ticket as the meet progresses. In fact I'll go one step further....unless someone comes up with a winning ticket using birthdays, numerology or some other non-handicapping method, no one's taking down this pool during the course of the meet. The dime minimum will simply not allow for one handicapper to out-do all others at a high profile venue like GP.

Having hit two Pick 6's over 40K, I never thought I'd say this, but I think it might actually be fun to buy $10 or $20 worth of quick picks just to be in action on the Rainbow 6. Hey....you never know : )


Vinman

[Market Mover]

Originally Posted by Vinman

Today's pool took a slight dip to $19,546, yielding a $521.23 payoff for 5 of 6. The carryover inches forward to $37,752 for the meet.

Great 50 cent Pick 5 payoff today of $37,499.95 in a pool of $58.852.

I'm with the previous poster on the Rainbow 6 becoming less and less hittable by a single ticket as the meet progresses. In fact I'll go one step further....unless someone comes up with a winning ticket using birthdays, numerology or some other non-handicapping method, no one's taking down this pool during the course of the meet. The dime minimum will simply not allow for one handicapper to out-do all others at a high profile venue like GP.

Having hit two Pick 6's over 40K, I never thought I'd say this, but I think it might actually be fun to buy $10 or $20 worth of quick picks just to be in action on the Rainbow 6. Hey....you never know : )


Vinman

Exactly right Vinman. The odds of a single winner hitting this jackpot get larger and larger as the meet goes on. The best way to approach this is look at this wager like a lottery ticket. Take a few stabs and have some fun with it.
When handicapping the card, try to isolate the sequence of longshots that few would consider....and then expand from there. If you're going to include that odds-on chalk, followed by a few morning line second choices, it's not going to happen. Because then everyone and their mother will hit it. And it will carry.

The Beulah player knew what he was doing. Remember, at a quarter min. base wager, he had fewer combinations than what 12K could buy in dimes. (Could someone do the math and see who many combinations he really bought?)

[adwplayingfool]

Must have been 49,000 combos right? 4*12,250? Same amount for a dime would run $4,900

[Vinman]

In 2000 I led a group that hit the 45K Breeders' Cup Pick 6 on a wager of $17,988. The equivalent dime wager comes to $899.40....LOL!

If any so called "serious player with a plan" manages to make off with this pool before 4/24, it would be the most impressive score since the '78 Lufthansa heist at JFK......on second thought, we'll go with Graham Stone's walking off with the entire 2003 BC Pick 6 pool on an $8 bet....after changing his pick in the BC Turf.

Vinman

[Vinman]

Originally Posted by adwplayingfool

Must have been 49,000 combos right? 4*12,250? Same amount for a dime would run $4,900

.....a $98,000 wager on a $2.00 bet.

[balarat]

At Delaware Park, we are unable to bet the .10 pick six at Gulfstream. They say that the tote companies are not compatible. Anyone else having this problem?

[Vinman]

Does Delaware still have United Tote?

[balarat]

Delaware has scientific games.

[Vinman]

Originally Posted by balarat

Delaware has scientific games.

Major player....hard to understand why there would be a tote compatibility issue.

[Market Mover]

Originally Posted by adwplayingfool

Must have been 49,000 combos right? 4*12,250? Same amount for a dime would run $4,900

That's a lot of combos adw!