Explain the A-B-C-X method for horizontal wagers?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Jealousy is a terrible thing. Thanks for stopping by, though, as I'm sure some were impressed....other than yourself even.

Is my jealousy of being a paid tout that obvious?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Your constant reliance on "survival" "surviving" in multi-leg wagers is completely wrong.

One of these days you are going to have to come to the realization that there are people out there who are much smarter than you and much better than you at wagering and winning. People have studied wagering strategies for decades and have honed their skills making a living depending on betting as their sole source of income. It's win or die.....not win or lose, get a paycheck and proclaim how you know everything.

It's scary the gap between how smart you think you are and how little you actually know about wagering strategy.

Handicapping you might be the smartest human on the planet....that's subjective.....but wagering correctly is not....that's objective.

Your talk/fright of bankroll and swings tells me all I need to know....The people who are good at this win constantly....there are no worries about bankrolls or swings....when you make good bets over and over and over, it's just how much you are going to win......when you makes bets strictly as a function of handicapping or survival, then yes, you have to worry about bankroll and swings cause you are doing it wrong and probably going to lose over the long run.

And of course the hurdle of thinking you are smarter than everybody else is the absolute worst hurdle of all.....it's almost impossible to overcome in a gambling game.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You aren't a Pick-6 player, now or ever, and need to stop telling people how they should play it. Period.

Pick-6s are hit by surviving legs to get to good opinions. Sorry if you disagree but that doesn't make that theory wrong....and it's hardly an original theory.

If it wasn't personal you'd realize that 90% of what I've been saying hasn't been about playing Pick-6s and the reason I don't play Pick 6s often is because I share your concerns about bankroll.

Here's the difference. Rather than playing Pick-6s like everyone else (in a way that almost guarantees they'll lose) I don't play at all.

That's the big recommendation that seems to be upsetting you so much.

I am telling people unless they have a monster edge over this game, don't play Pick-6s because playing the way most people play them makes it almost impossible to have an edge.

As to your 2nd quote, I am basically recommending the same thing. I am adding that you have to have multiple value oriented opinions in any exotic sequence for it to make sense to get involved.

Other than that as long as you don't include some really terrible underlays in the other legs, you'll be fine. But you NEED value oriented opinions in there. Those horses and races are the As, not many of the horses that other people call As or single because the horse has a good chance of winning.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If it wasn't personal you'd realize that 90% of what I've been saying hasn't been about playing Pick-6s and the reason I don't play Pick 6s often is because I agree with your concerns about bankrolls.

Here's the difference. Rather than playing Pick-6s like everyone else (a way that almost guarantees that I'd lose like most people) I don't play at all.

That is the big recommendation that seems to be upsetting you so much.

I am telling people unless they have a monster edge over this game, don't play Pick-6s because playing the way most people play them makes it almost impossible to have an edge.

I know your response wasn't directed to me, but I feel compelled to respond.

First of all, thanks for engaging in the discussion. I appreciate and learn far more from people who disagree with me than from people who agree with me. I really don't get upset from internet forum discussions, I can't really understand why anybody does even if senseless personal attacks are made.

I think we are in total agreement regarding how to bet horses in general. If you don't have a perceived edge, don't bet! The disconnect in this discussion comes from your extrapolation of your methods to P-6s. Personally, I played P-6s very successfully for about 30 years. In doing so, I charted pool sizes, payoff sequences, # of horses per race, and several other fun facts and figures. I know, for example, how winning favorites in the first leg affect the payoffs. I know how the morning line can affect betting patterns. I also know that including an underlaid favorite does not make for an automatic underlaid bet. And conversely, one overlay doesn't guarantee that your bet will be an overlay.

You have stated that I play the way most people play. The fact is, you have know idea how I play or the process I use to determine my bets. Your recommendations for the P-6 do not come from personal experience of being a P-6 player betting real significant money. I realize that most people shouldn't even consider playing the P-6 because there betting personalities and/or bankroll aren't suited for such a bet. Many smart players avoid the P-6 because it doesn't fit their style.

Of course, these discussions are probably moot considering that the real P-6 has been all but eliminated in favor of the Jackpot P-6.

[098poi]

To be honest I don't bet pick 4's so my opinion may not count for much. I checked my TwinSpires history and I bet 1 in 2011. I knew I had bet some earlier and I found an old post about the most money you ever lost. This was from 2009. Still makes me cringe.

*************************************************


My worst beat was a few years ago online and I was trying to attack the P4's and I put $1,000 in my Youbet account and was determined to hit one of those big ones. I was betting 3 3 3 4 ($216) or less. Not the most effficient plays. I hit a few that kept me afloat and 1 for over $1,000 but my beat came when I was alive in the last leg at Aq or Bel (brain damage, I can't remember). It was the ninth race and it was a MSW (don't think it was MCL) on the turf. I think I had 3 horses and one of them was leading all the way and got nipped at the wire. It would have paid over 15K. The rub was the horse that beat me was a horse that I was 50-50 with over the horse he beat. Both were lightly raced, not terribly well meant in previous races but not longshots either. I remember looking back and forth and saying just chose one! The horse I chose had raced within the past 30 days and the horse that won had been off about 4 months. I went with recency. Recency may be better with claimers but with 3yo maidens a few months off can be a plus. I took it very personally as we all do. This is when I was on the DRF chat. A poster here who was under a different name then came in and said tough beat which I appreciated. Not too long after my money dried up. Maybe I will try the P4's again. Who wants to lend me $1000?!!
Last edited by 098poi; 07-10-2009 at 06:46 AM.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Your talk/fright of bankroll and swings tells me all I need to know....

Bankroll and swings are a HUGE factor.

1.Skill + 2.Bankroll + 3.very selective(sequence/card) high value + 4.coverage-oriented = can negate most 'Swings' from happening


but take away any of those four factors and you are subject to the probability of swings...

sure you can hop into your Titanic, and if you don't hit an iceberg, you can have a sumptuously rich ride... Until you do.

................................

or Skill + Bankroll + (smaller combinations)high value + swings = can negate the need for coverage oriented and very selective cards/sequences ...

Here your large bankroll covers the ups and downs of most of the probable the swings over a long game.

.................................

i don't care to go into every other combination of factors, as these two combinations are major models, and I'm still waking up

also don't care to go into your personal beef w/ TLG ... I've stated my positive opinion of his next to Beyer and others in the past

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I know your response wasn't directed to me, but I feel compelled to respond.

First of all, thanks for engaging in the discussion. I appreciate and learn far more from people who disagree with me than from people who agree with me. I really don't get upset from internet forum discussions, I can't really understand why anybody does even if senseless personal attacks are made.

I think we are in total agreement regarding how to bet horses in general. If you don't have a perceived edge, don't bet! The disconnect in this discussion comes from your extrapolation of your methods to P-6s. Personally, I played P-6s very successfully for about 30 years. In doing so, I charted pool sizes, payoff sequences, # of horses per race, and several other fun facts and figures. I know, for example, how winning favorites in the first leg affect the payoffs. I know how the morning line can affect betting patterns. I also know that including an underlaid favorite does not make for an automatic underlaid bet. And conversely, one overlay doesn't guarantee that your bet will be an overlay.

You have stated that I play the way most people play. The fact is, you have know idea how I play or the process I use to determine my bets. Your recommendations for the P-6 do not come from personal experience of being a P-6 player betting real significant money. I realize that most people shouldn't even consider playing the P-6 because there betting personalities and/or bankroll aren't suited for such a bet. Many smart players avoid the P-6 because it doesn't fit their style.

Of course, these discussions are probably moot considering that the real P-6 has been all but eliminated in favor of the Jackpot P-6.

A few things and then hopefully we can move on.

1. My "play the way most people play" is a generic statement about how most people focus too much attention on probability when assigning As, Bs, and Cs. It wasn't directed at you. We were just having a conversation. I have no idea how you play.

2. I agree that one underlay does not necessarily make for an underlaid combination. It depends who else is included. But to clarify, when I am talking about underlays in this context I am not talking about the typical horse that's going to lose the track take (which is most). I am talking about some horse that's very overbet that you would normally be keying against in a vertical or win wager. If you are throwing in even money shots that have a 30%-35% chance of winning instead of 40%-45% and making them As, you are heading in the wrong direction.

3. I think the insights you have into betting patterns are a great way to go to try to add value to your tickets.

4. My recommendations on the Pick-6 have been very limited, but I see gambling as a math problem. I never played craps or roulette because I understand the math. I feel qualified to tell people not to play those games at all. lol I also feel qualified to say there are certain strategies in the Pick 6 that will make it harder for a player to sustain an edge (assuming they had a small one to begin with) because of the math. So they shouldn't do those things. If they think along those lines, they'll probably end up where I ended up and rarely get into that pool.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

A few things and then hopefully we can move on.

1. My "play the way most people play" is a generic statement about how most people focus too much attention on probability when assigning As, Bs, and Cs. It wasn't directed at you. We were just having a conversation. I have no idea how you play.

2. I agree that one underlay does not necessarily make for an underlaid combination. It depends who else is included. But to clarify, when I am talking about underlays in this context I am not talking about the typical horse that's going to lose the track take (which is most). I am talking about some horse that's very overbet that you would normally be keying against in a vertical or win wager. If you are throwing in even money shots that have a 30%-35% chance of winning instead of 40%-45% and making them As, you are heading in the wrong direction.

3. I think the insights you have into betting patterns are a great way to go to try to add value to your tickets.

4. My recommendations on the Pick-6 have been very limited, but I see gambling as a math problem. I never played craps or roulette because I understand the math. I feel qualified to tell people not to play those games at all. lol I also feel qualified to say there are certain strategies in the Pick 6 that will make it harder for a player to sustain an edge (assuming they had a small one to begin with) because of the math. So they shouldn't do those things. If they think along those lines, they'll probably end up where I ended up and rarely get into that pool.

The difference, of course, is that...while craps and roulette could be reduced to a math problem...the horse-betting game CANNOT...because it's a combination of art and science. As a Pick-6 abstainer myself...how can I provide instruction on the wager to those who are way more in tune with the "artistic" aspect of the bet than I am? We are who we are...and we know what we know. And i know for a fact that a certain member of the discussion here is so proficient at the Pick-6 wager that he has been called the best horseplayer in America by no less a gambling authority than Roxy Roxborough...who has, no doubt, seen countless horseplayers plying their trade at the Vegas casinos. Roxborough even admitted to being so impressed by this PA-member...that he would often ask to be a partner of his in these Pick-6 wagers. This was chronicled in Andy Beyer's last book. Wouldn't it be a little pretentious of me to presume to give Pick-6 advice to such a player? I mean...I could argue with him about some other aspect of this game...but not the Pick-6. In the Pick-6, this man is the teacher and I the student...and I should accept that.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I know your response wasn't directed to me, but I feel compelled to respond.

First of all, thanks for engaging in the discussion. I appreciate and learn far more from people who disagree with me than from people who agree with me. I really don't get upset from internet forum discussions, I can't really understand why anybody does even if senseless personal attacks are made.

I think we are in total agreement regarding how to bet horses in general. If you don't have a perceived edge, don't bet! The disconnect in this discussion comes from your extrapolation of your methods to P-6s. Personally, I played P-6s very successfully for about 30 years. In doing so, I charted pool sizes, payoff sequences, # of horses per race, and several other fun facts and figures. I know, for example, how winning favorites in the first leg affect the payoffs. I know how the morning line can affect betting patterns. I also know that including an underlaid favorite does not make for an automatic underlaid bet. And conversely, one overlay doesn't guarantee that your bet will be an overlay.

You have stated that I play the way most people play. The fact is, you have know idea how I play or the process I use to determine my bets. Your recommendations for the P-6 do not come from personal experience of being a P-6 player betting real significant money. I realize that most people shouldn't even consider playing the P-6 because there betting personalities and/or bankroll aren't suited for such a bet. Many smart players avoid the P-6 because it doesn't fit their style.

Of course, these discussions are probably moot considering that the real P-6 has been all but eliminated in favor of the Jackpot P-6.

bingo

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The difference, of course, is that...while craps and roulette could be reduced to a math problem...the horse-betting game CANNOT...because it's a combination of art and science. As a Pick-6 abstainer myself...how can I provide instruction on the wager to those who are way more in tune with the "artistic" aspect of the bet than I am? We are who we are...and we know what we know. And i know for a fact that a certain member of the discussion here is so proficient at the Pick-6 wager that he has been called the best horseplayer in America by no less a gambling authority than Roxy Roxborough...who has, no doubt, seen countless horseplayers plying their trade at the Vegas casinos. Roxborough even admitted to being so impressed by this PA-member...that he would often ask to be a partner of his in these Pick-6 wagers. This was chronicled in Andy Beyer's last book. Wouldn't it be a little pretentious of me to presume to give Pick-6 advice to such a player? I mean...I could argue with him about some other aspect of this game...but not the Pick-6. In the Pick-6, this man is the teacher and I the student...and I should accept that.

I see handicapping as using a combination of data and stats that we sometimes have to subjectively interpret. The latter being art.

I see betting as objective math (including bankroll risk).

Playing the horses successfully is all of the above.

I would not presume to tell someone how to interepret something for which I have no hard data or stats, but I feel comfortable telling them that if they use even money shots with a 35% chance of winning as As (and other examples like that), the math is taking them in a negative direction. So they better make sure they have a big enough edge to play that way otherwise go to another pool .

[letswastemoney]

On Santa Anita opening day, I tried out DRF Ticketmaker and spent $59 total on pick 3s for Races 4-6 (Lady of Shamrock, Maiden, La Brea).

Race 4: I used 2 As (Amandine, X S Gold) and 1 B (Ms Bad Behavior)
Race 5: Confusing race. I used 3 As (Big Scott Daddy was one of them), 2 Bs and 1 C.
Race 6: I used 2 As (Dream Tree, Spiced Perfection) and 1 B (Cathedral Road)

When I got to Race 6, I knew I was in a good position. I could hit the pick 3 to Dream Tree or Spiced Perfection for $2, or to Cathedral Road for $1.

Spiced Perfection won, and it paid $602 for $2.

If Catherdral Road won, it would've paid over $1,000 for just $1, so I was excited about that. But she folded and my main closer won.

I had a good feeling about the sequence when I tried this. It will probably take some effort to find a sequence that good again.

[098poi]

Congratulations on your win!

[Tom]

On ATR today, second hour, Steve and Nick go into a very detailed discussion of ticket building using races to be run Saturday. Steve put the thole thing up on his website later today. Talks about A-B-C horses, ticket cost, etc. Over a half an hour - excellent spot on the show today.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Tom

On ATR today, second hour, Steve and Nick go into a very detailed discussion of ticket building using races to be run Saturday. Steve put the thole thing up on his website later today. Talks about A-B-C horses, ticket cost, etc. Over a half an hour - excellent spot on the show today.

Nick is a great bettor. Tremendous handicapper as well, but he really knows how to put tickets together.

[Tom]

Very good analysis of how to construct a DD ticket package for the two races.
A C horse won the first, and his comments was to play that one only with As in the next race.

An A won, but not the heavy favored A, so a nice double hit, and now I am putting the hot dogs back in the freezer and heading out fro steak and ale tonight.

Seriously, very good logic in the two races. I have got to re-visit DD - which used to be one of my favorite, bets but has kind of faded away in favor of exactas.

I guess this is going to be an ongoing thing for ATR from what I heard Friday.
Good idea, IMHO. I know I am never too old to learn something new.

The two races were Aqu 7 and 8.