Easy Tosses

[PowerUpPaynter]

Who do you guess find easiest to toss and why?

Random Order

Gronkowski - obvious reasons

Free Drop Billy - I took a stand against his hype train in October and it did not let me down. (not yet) Hes just not a very good horse IMO.

Firenze Fire - No way he can get the distance

Enticed - I wouldnt call this easy because I think he will be a force at one turn miles. But again dont think he can get the distance.


Those are the obvious ones for me... They wont be anywhere on any ticket I hold.

[clicknow]

so when you say "toss" here you mean toss entirely off any ticket?

Or is this a "toss for the win" topic?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Who do you guess find easiest to toss and why?

Random Order

Gronkowski - obvious reasons

Free Drop Billy - I took a stand against his hype train in October and it did not let me down. (not yet) Hes just not a very good horse IMO.

Firenze Fire - No way he can get the distance

Enticed - I wouldnt call this easy because I think he will be a force at one turn miles. But again dont think he can get the distance.


Those are the obvious ones for me... They wont be anywhere on any ticket I hold.

I actually like Enticed and think he has a pedigree for distance and think he has upside, I loved his Wood and thought it better than his Gotham.

But I tossed the following in my odds line

1 Gronkowski - way to slow, going from 7th grade to NFL
11 Quip - Has been good with slow paces, lets see how this pace works for him. too slow.
12 Flameaway - the toughest toss but he is going to be completely up against it pace wise and hasnt been good enough with better setups, i do think he is a decent sort who could make some money
14 Bravazo - one really good race was a perfect trip on moderate pace, now he gets the wrong setup here.
16 Promises Fulfilled - run off in this years derby
17 Free Drop Billy - non competitive as a 3yo
20 Firenze Fire - non competitive as a 3yo

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by clicknow

so when you say "toss" here you mean toss entirely off any ticket?

Or is this a "toss for the win" topic?

off all tickets

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

off all tickets

pretty hard to toss anyone out of the superfecta. sure you can pick 1 or 2 not 6 or 7.

Biggest toss is Promises Fulfilled.

[señorclipclop]

Tossing all of these out of the top 3 spots:

Promises Fulfilled
Bravazo
Flameaway
Combatant
Enticed
Free Drop Billy
My Boy Jack
Gronkowski
Lone Sailor
Noble Indy
Firenze Fire

[exactatom]

My tosses:

Lone Sailor Ran a career race in the Louisiana Derby. Probably will bounce and has only won once in his life.
Firenze Fire Got his Derby points when the distance was shorter.
Gronkowski Never farther than a mile. Never on dirt.
Promises Fulfilled Will not be able to take this crew gate to wire
Quip Does not have the speed to find a spot in this pace scenario.
Solomini Just been beaten by too many in this field
Flameaway Not a good pace scenario
Enticed A good 7 to 8 1/2 furlong horse.

Those I do not feel can win, but could bottom out exotic tickets

Bolt d' Oro I did not buy into the hype last year. I think he is questionable at 10 furlongs. I think a barn that is 3 for 55 is going to have a rough time handling all of the Derby fever and media attention.
Bravazzo This horse got much better when the light went on in the December 27 work, but getting the Coach his 5th Derby is more than this one can handle.
My Boy Jack Will have to pass too many tiring horses and will have to come wide. Barely closed against inferior talent in Lexington.
Free Drop Billy When he won locally, he was a much better horse. Still could be the closer to get a piece of the exotics.


My upset special

Hofburg While I have liked Mendelssohn since last November, this horse is moving in the right direction. Mott lost a lot of foundation with this one, but he is working frequently. I wish this one had more gate works on the sheet as he has had bad gate experiences in his first 2 races.

[clicknow]

I'm playing some exotics and NOT tossing Firenze Fire. Has plenty of stamina on the female side. I kinda like Florida breds anyway.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I'm playing some exotics and NOT tossing Firenze Fire. Has plenty of stamina on the female side. I kinda like Florida breds anyway.

This is a interesting thread but I don’t even know where to start lol

If your talking about on the win end than there is a lot of horses that are easy tosses but if your talking about tossing out of the Superfecta than there really isn’t too many, but ...

Firenze Fire is the easiest toss of all. His female side may have stamina but this horse has raced enough times to know he didn’t inhereit any Kentucky Derby level talent. Look at his last two races he just was not competitive at ANY point in either race. He had no excuses in either race. He just simply was not good enough and now you think he has a chance to magically get good and finish ahead of 16 of the other horses which is what he would have to do even to hit the 4th spot in the super.

You do know that Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, Audible and Good Magic will be in the race ? I couldn’t look at myself in the mirror then next day if I put so much as a penny on this horse in the derby.

[LoneF]

Gronkowski is a toss for me out of the super because I don’t want to spread insanely deep in the super so stands must be made but he is not a easy toss.

We know that 11 of the 14 horses Justify has defeated were recruited at the last minute from the local fair where they were giving kiddie rides but how much does anybody really know about the horses Gronkowski has been beating up on ? I assume they were bad . Maybe not as bad as the stiffs that have lined up against Justify but still pretty bad so for that reason I’ll toss him but he does have that grinding running style that you see in so many clunk up type horses .

[LoneF]

Promises fulfilled is the type of horse you either take a shot on using on the win end at huge odds or just completely toss. If they let him crawl like Justify in the SA derby than who knows maybe he gets brave and repeats his fountain of youth effort but if that does not happen than he will just show speed and fade bad like in the Florida derby.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Firenze Fire is the easiest toss of all.

As I stated I am an exotics player. We all have our wagering styles. I like to find a horse or 2 who will mess up the exotics. I got lucky with Battle of Midway and Commanding Curve. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't. I didn't have Lookin at Lee.

I look for horses like Firenze Fire or Free Drop Billy who I think may be able to bust up tris and supers.

[Robert Fischer]

.

'ABC' ranking method for all 4 superfecta spots

Top Tier AAA =Justify
2ND Tier BAAA =Bolt, Good Magic, Vino.
3RD Tier CBAA =Audible, My Boy Jack, Enticed, Solomini
4TH Tier XCBA =Flameaway, Mendelssohn, Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor
Near misses Quip, Hofburg XXCB

easy complete tosses:
Firenze Fire XXXX
Gronkowski XXXX
Bravazo XXXX
Noble Indy XXXX
Magnum Moon XXXX


tosses from first:
Flameaway
Mendelssohn
Promises Fulfilled
Free Drop Billy
Lone Sailor

Tosses from exacta:
Quip
Hofburg



Not enough value to spread this opinion thin.

Need some dark greens and none of the reds

[dilanesp]

I will post a more courageous toss. I don't like Magnum Moon. I don't think he is fast enough. I am not against an inexperienced horse (I don't believe in the Curse of Apollo or dual qualifiers or any of that), but this horse's races just don't look good enough. I don't think he is near as good as Justify, and I think he is likely to get beat pretty badly.

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Promises fulfilled is the type of horse you either take a shot on using on the win end at huge odds or just completely toss. If they let him crawl like Justify in the SA derby than who knows maybe he gets brave and repeats his fountain of youth effort but if that does not happen than he will just show speed and fade bad like in the Florida derby.

He's got by far the best jock for walking the dog at Churchill. I tend to think he's dangerous.