Adjusting par times

[Dave Schwartz]

Banacek,

I think you will be unhappy with our par times.

This will not change.

I do not believe that the Beyer process is correct for the reasons I have stated.

I do believe that there are superior ways to make numbers than the methods I use. However, short of making a race-by-race projection, these are very solid pars.

The projection approach lends itself very nicely to numbers produced by (say) TimeForm U.S. An annual par figure cannot possibly compete with a race-by-race projection.

However, short of that, I am quite pleased (as are many others) with the process we use.

[Boulder]

Dave,

Just wondering if the new multiplier are working in the 2014 pars.

[Gapfire]

Originally Posted by banacek

I

AQU M10000 6f par 113.37 6.5f par 120.06 or a difference of 6.69 seconds

AQU GRADED STAKES 6f par 108.45 6.5f par 115.14 difference of 6.69 seconds.


It seems wrong to me that this would be the case. Shouldn't the difference get somewhat smaller as the class rises..like a sliding scale?

I agree Banacek. I would think that the graded stakes horse would run that last half furlong somewhat faster than the maiden claimer.

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?

Hi thaskalos

The par charts are lacking. What is not taken into account is the variance between the classes.

Thomas Sapio

[PhantomOnTour]

A correctly designed chart avoids the problem being discussed here.
It all comes down to the value that one places on each increment in their charts.
For example, let:
5.5f = .15 secs
6f = .16 secs
6.5f = .17 secs
7f = .18 secs

If you extrapolate using these values and make your chart, you will not run into this problem.
A horse rated a 108 will take 6.33 secs to go from 6.5f-7f
A horse rated a 100 will take 6.41 secs to go from 6.5f-7f