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View Poll Results: Who do you think will win the Breeders Cup Classic?
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California Chrome
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49 |
59.76% |
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Arrogate
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20 |
24.39% |
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Frosted
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5 |
6.10% |
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Someone else in the field
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8 |
9.76% |
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10-28-2016, 03:51 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Can't see it.
Not at Santa. They'll go out in 23 and 46 at worst with Chrome, Arrogate, and Nyquist.
Bayern already wrote the script. Get out and make Chrome hunt you down. Arrogate and Nyquist will have to run that script if they can.
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Looking at every surface from last week it is rail rail rail no matter the distance. They had to run a sub 45 for a closer to win last week in a sprint. Turf too. I have seen all the closers go down in 2 turn routes.
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10-28-2016, 04:03 PM
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#32
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Looking at every surface from last week it is rail rail rail no matter the distance. They had to run a sub 45 for a closer to win last week in a sprint. Turf too. I have seen all the closers go down in 2 turn routes.
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SA has always been a conveyor belt.
Takes special races and special horses to reverse that trend. Trainers and Jocks are all set in how they need to run at SA. And it works. That won't change, but on 2 days of the year, it can.., and will. 
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10-28-2016, 04:11 PM
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#33
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Can't see it.
Not at Santa. They'll go out in 23 and 46 at worst with Chrome, Arrogate, and Nyquist.
Bayern already wrote the script. Get out and make Chrome hunt you down. Arrogate and Nyquist will have to run that script if they can.
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I actually agree with you 100%. Using different terminology.
In my terminology I'm calling the Bayern/ToastofNY/Chrome script, a "moderate pace". Mainly I'm focusing on them going 1-2-3 around the track more than the fractional time.
FWIW Bris has Chrome running 90/109/101 into a -2 +4 pace.
The above paragraph regarding a 'hot pace' is meant for a less likely scenario where the speeds can't sustain the pace.
My opinion is that a 2014 style race is the more likely general scenario.
I picture Arrogate going right out, but I also think that Nyquist can take the lead if Doug/Mario insist.
Chrome and Arrogate are obviously beasts on their day.
Can Nyquist last and hit the board a la Toast of New York in the Bayern 2014 script?
If horses tire a bit more, can someone like Hoppertunity, Keen Ice, or Shaman Ghost hit the board?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Is Found officially in Robert?
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I don't know. Gun Runner is another who I'm not sure if running.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-28-2016 at 04:14 PM.
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10-28-2016, 05:00 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
SA has always been a conveyor belt.
Takes special races and special horses to reverse that trend. Trainers and Jocks are all set in how they need to run at SA. And it works. That won't change, but on 2 days of the year, it can.., and will. |
Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! 
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10-28-2016, 05:40 PM
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#35
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! |
I'll be there live and front row with our always great seats.
Bantering about this stuff just gets things banging around in my head. The turf races are going to be incredible. The Dirt Mile is solid regardless of what anybody says. The Distaff could be the race of the event and the Classic is always the Classic.
Can't ******* wait. 
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10-28-2016, 07:02 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
I'll be there live and front row with our always great seats.
Bantering about this stuff just gets things banging around in my head. The turf races are going to be incredible. The Dirt Mile is solid regardless of what anybody says. The Distaff could be the race of the event and the Classic is always the Classic.
Can't ******* wait. |
Nice. I'll be playing emperor over here at the helm!
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10-28-2016, 08:36 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 876
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! |
You arent lyin. im chomping at the bit to get out there
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10-29-2016, 12:36 AM
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#38
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,950
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Chrome
not as confident as I was earlier, just saw the PP's
on Arrogate. If he runs what he did at Saratoga. It's Arrogate.
But I just can't see Chrome being beat this year. So I will stick with Chrome The man against the boy. Experience wins out.
This is a weak field based on pre-entries Found can be competetive
Arrogate, Chrome Found Gun Runner Frosted, Melatonin.
Mail it in there's your superfecta and pentafecta
Last edited by ebcorde; 10-29-2016 at 12:39 AM.
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10-29-2016, 12:35 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: west view, pa. now Lancaster, Ca.
Posts: 3,382
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__________________
Buy Sam a drink and get His dog one Too--->mlang
and now in Lancaster, CA.
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10-29-2016, 02:33 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I actually agree with you 100%. Using different terminology.
In my terminology I'm calling the Bayern/ToastofNY/Chrome script, a "moderate pace". Mainly I'm focusing on them going 1-2-3 around the track more than the fractional time.
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Horses running 1-2-3 around the track is no indicator of a moderate pace. Maybe the other riders realized if they try to get the big horse beat they'll get themselves beat worse. They probably remembered Lezcano's bonehead ride on Frosted in the Travers where he got both himself and AP beat to the plodder Keen Ice.
I look at the fractions in relation to the final time and it looks like they all rode to their horses pace abilities. Of course some of the horses just went off form, not the riders' faults.
The only horse who was ridden poorly was CC who was wide the whole way costing him 4 lengths when only losing by a neck.
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10-29-2016, 03:07 PM
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#41
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ldiatone
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Nyquist OUT.
So that simplifies the pace a little bit.
Melatonin will be urged from the gate for that position.
Sherman and Baffert aren't averse to the lead, but neither would sacrifice horse to be on the lead.
Highland Reel is a bit of a question mark, but I'm not even sold that he's capable of out-breaking Melatonin for the pace.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-29-2016, 03:26 PM
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#42
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ldiatone
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I didn't think he had much of a shot but it's always nice to see the derby winner in the BCC. Would have took some money too, just for that very reason.
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10-29-2016, 07:29 PM
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#43
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ldiatone
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Thank the Lord for BloodHorse and other racing publications.
The LA Times article about Nyquist's withdrawal from the Classic was laughable.
It listed him and Seattle Slew as the only undefeated winners of the Derby 
We've had three others do this in just the last 13yrs or so...Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown.
The struggle goes on...
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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10-31-2016, 08:16 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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The race is Arrogate's to lose. The guy has Sprinter speed at a route. His workouts on the slow Santa Anita track are insane.
1:24.40 and only one other horse ran a sub 1:26 seven furlong workout in the entire month of October and that was his workmate Mor Spirit.
This guy is going to leave them all in his wake. He is the real deal.
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10-31-2016, 06:10 PM
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#45
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by depalma113
The race is Arrogate's to lose. The guy has Sprinter speed at a route. His workouts on the slow Santa Anita track are insane.
1:24.40 and only one other horse ran a sub 1:26 seven furlong workout in the entire month of October and that was his workmate Mor Spirit.
This guy is going to leave them all in his wake. He is the real deal.
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This is a very optimistic view and frankly I think it is more suitable to a fan rather to a bettor.
__________________
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