Odds lines are useless

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Nitro

You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.

I had several difficulties with the Free HKJC PP's but one of them involved:

True, they provided a list of horses running for a particular race.

Then you can select each horse and their PP's can or will show in a a separate tab.

True again, each horse's fractional running lines were provided for each race and then you have the option to see the replay of a race but you have no idea which horse is the one you're interested in until the end when you find out it's finish position. Then you have to re-watch the race in order to observe the horse's running style and effort. Do this for several races for this particular horse and I hope you can see the difficulty of this process.

Repeat and for each horse running and then count the number of tabs open on your computer. It's easy to lose track of who is who in each tab.

But, a good feature of HK racing is the video view of the horses in the paddock especially if you understand body language. Each horse is isolated for at least 1 or 2 minutes in the walking ring (which I thought was a mini race track).

I wish the isolating view of each horse would be adopted over here.

I don't know how you do it. But, I remember you mentioned you don't use the PP's. And, if it works for you, that's great (for you).

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

.
But, a good feature of HK racing is the video view of the horses in the paddock especially if you understand body language. Each horse is isolated for at least 1 or 2 minutes in the walking ring (which I thought was a mini race track).

I wish the isolating view of each horse would be adopted over here.

I don't know how you do it. But, I remember you mentioned you don't use the PP's. And, if it works for you, that's great (for you).

How it works for me.
As an initial setup and preparation, I use a pre-race card Static tote analysis that allows me to come up with potentially 50% of any field of entries that in my estimation will be trying. I’ll also take a quick perusal of the Vets info to see if there are any physical issues.

When the actual betting begins the Live tote action in the Win/Place and Quinella pools can further affect the tote analysis and how I view the early selections. Their order of preference might be altered, or they might be dropped altogether due to lack of action and substituted with others receiving the kind of betting that would indicate a better performance. I also enjoy the pre-race commentary by the announcers who are viewing each entry in the walking ring. Very often they may point out a peculiarity that could affect an animal’s performance one way or the other.

I could care less about how the entries have performed previously. In fact, when the indicators show that they’ve been running poorly, but for some unknown reason are getting what most would deem unwarranted betting activity, there’s usually a very good reason for it.

Keep in mind, I’m not trying to find a single Winner among the 12 to 14 entries. I’m simply trying to find those entries that will make-up either a 3-entry Dutch Win bet, a Quinella or possibly a Triple bet. In other words, I’m looking for a Winning play that will produce profit. The odds of the final selections act as my barometer to determine which play to make or even to play at all.

Being an outsider half-way around the world from where the racing is taking place doesn’t faze me at all. That’s because the large field sizes permit a more discriminatory analysis of the betting activities. HK betting is like no other place in the world and the information I’m getting in real time is always spot on. I can only add that after 4 years of playing there, it’s still a very refreshing change from the local racing.

BTW, this was my most recent posting of early selections for HK:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=139233

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Nitro

No, actually that any American based player would find the all the details provided by the HKJC inadequate, just because its formatted differently from what their used to. It doesn’t take any pre-requisite in any special discipline to comprehend the information that’s offered (Assuming they know how to read English). I would agree that they might actually find it a bit overwhelming at first glance, because there’s an awful lot more pertinent info available particularly when it comes to a horse’s physicality.

I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in the exact format that one prefers.

Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.

And the upside is that one takes all the responsibility for generating the values used in wagering--so one gets all the fortune and glory one deserves. The downside, of course, is that there is no one to blame when things don't work out as planned.

[cj]

Originally Posted by traynor

Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.

LOL, ok.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

LOL, ok.

CJ, isn't it nice to know that what you do is considered "a relatively trivial matter" by others here at PA?.....So refreshing...

[cj]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

CJ, isn't it nice to know that what you do is considered "a relatively trivial matter" by others here at PA?.....So refreshing...

I just hope my bosses don't find out!

To be fair, just doing Hong Kong wouldn't be that hard in my opinion. Trivial, no, but they don't run that many races or have many tracks. I'm sure most people betting serious money there have some sort of quality speed figures.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Nitro

How it works for me.
As an initial setup and preparation, I use a pre-race card Static tote analysis that allows me to come up with potentially 50% of any field of entries that in my estimation will be trying. I’ll also take a quick perusal of the Vets info to see if there are any physical issues.

When the actual betting begins the Live tote action in the Win/Place and Quinella pools can further affect the tote analysis and how I view the early selections. Their order of preference might be altered, or they might be dropped altogether due to lack of action and substituted with others receiving the kind of betting that would indicate a better performance. I also enjoy the pre-race commentary by the announcers who are viewing each entry in the walking ring. Very often they may point out a peculiarity that could affect an animal’s performance one way or the other.

I could care less about how the entries have performed previously. In fact, when the indicators show that they’ve been running poorly, but for some unknown reason are getting what most would deem unwarranted betting activity, there’s usually a very good reason for it.

Keep in mind, I’m not trying to find a single Winner among the 12 to 14 entries. I’m simply trying to find those entries that will make-up either a 3-entry Dutch Win bet, a Quinella or possibly a Triple bet. In other words, I’m looking for a Winning play that will produce profit. The odds of the final selections act as my barometer to determine which play to make or even to play at all.

Being an outsider half-way around the world from where the racing is taking place doesn’t faze me at all. That’s because the large field sizes permit a more discriminatory analysis of the betting activities. HK betting is like no other place in the world and the information I’m getting in real time is always spot on. I can only add that after 4 years of playing there, it’s still a very refreshing change from the local racing.

BTW, this was my most recent posting of early selections for HK:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=139233

That's a good approach.

Btw, I only was looking at HK for only a short time. The time difference is a killer for me deciding between gambling and sleep. Towards the end, I tried looking at body language and my selections were so-so to okay. Still wasn't confident without my usual handicapping.

We differ here because I think previous performance is very important basically the where, how and why's.

Again, we differ since I prefer Win but will make other bets. But, I do remember betting an exacta or a quinella which is actually a Win and Show placing or something like that. Taught me a lesson that I should learn the difference in terminology between jurisdictions because at the same time I was looking at Aussie racing (I have TVG). Found out later there is a HK betting guide available.

We're all (or most) are looking for winning plays just using different methods.
.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by traynor

I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in the exact format that one prefers.

Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.

And the upside is that one takes all the responsibility for generating the values used in wagering--so one gets all the fortune and glory one deserves. The downside, of course, is that there is no one to blame when things don't work out as planned.

You hit the nail right on the head...that's exactly what I was looking for. Someone to blame for when things "don't work out as planned".

[betovernetcapper]

as a point of reference. Everyone sees the track or DRF Ml. For better or worse it influences the pools. If a horse has exposed form & appears to be the horse to beat on paper & has a ML of 8-5 & then hovers around 3-1 or 7-2, then it's probably not an overlay but a horse with a problem. If the same horse is bet aggressively it's more likely to run to it's numbers.
The great thing about the ML is that it's the same for everyone. It's like Coordinated Universal Time (similar to Greenwich Mean Time), which is the same for everyone. It's not a particularly good tool for betting, but it's a great tool to measure how the betting market is flowing.
I think it's important to differentiate between a morning line and a betting line. In a betting line you draw a line in the sand and say I'll take this horse at 2-1 or this horse at 5-1 & this horse if it's going off at big odds. A betting line can be computer generated or created by your view of the race or a combination of the two. I've never been able to say with authority that a given horse should be $3.43 to one. I'm more comfortable with saying it should be in the neighborhood of a little over 5-2 to 4-1. Just my 2$.

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.

I found one. It's called honkongturfcom They sell a DRF type product with speed figures & trainer-jockey stats and comments. You can download a race for free & see how you like the format. Aside from the cost $25 Sha Tin & $15 for Happy Valley, it's pretty good.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

as a point of reference. Everyone sees the track or DRF Ml. For better or worse it influences the pools. If a horse has exposed form & appears to be the horse to beat on paper & has a ML of 8-5 & then hovers around 3-1 or 7-2, then it's probably not an overlay but a horse with a problem. If the same horse is bet aggressively it's more likely to run to it's numbers.

The great thing about the ML is that it's the same for everyone. It's like Coordinated Universal Time (similar to Greenwich Mean Time), which is the same for everyone. It's not a particularly good tool for betting, but it's a great tool to measure how the betting market is flowing.

I think it's important to differentiate between a morning line and a betting line. In a betting line you draw a line in the sand and say I'll take this horse at 2-1 or this horse at 5-1 & this horse if it's going off at big odds. A betting line can be computer generated or created by your view of the race or a combination of the two. I've never been able to say with authority that a given horse should be $3.43 to one. I'm more comfortable with saying it should be in the neighborhood of a little over 5-2 to 4-1. Just my 2$.

Let’s just agree that the M/L is a reference point. Any changes due to scratches and track conditions can wreak havoc on any M/L, but it is what it is.

The creation of a personally developed betting line is as far as I’m concerned based on a purely subjective interpretation of the past performances and perhaps some other statistical data. Just because your own line may show that a 2/1 shot as an overlay because the current real odds are 5/1, doesn’t mean it’s time to send it in. The same can be said about a personal betting line showing a 5/1 entry as an underlay because its currently 2/1 on the live tote. There are certainly other things to consider about an animals current condition.

Unfortunately, odds in general reflect only a single betting pool: The Win Pool. In most individual races there’s lots of other betting taking place not only in the Mutual pools (Place & Show), but in the Vertical pools as well. The ability to analyze and compare the activity among all the available pools is at the heart of thorough tote analysis. There’s also an important key psychological factor incorporated into this analysis which weighs specific betting activities in order to arrive at those entries which are deemed as “live”.

The Live betting is the only realistic measurement of how the betting market is actually flowing. The final odds (or those close to post-time) should only be used to determine if the race is even playable from you’re personal betting history. Not because your selection’s personal line is higher or lower than what’s being shown, but because of the entry’s face value when considering what your historical hit frequency is. In other words, if you’re only hit 1 out of every 5 of those 5/1 shots you’re only breaking even.

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

The creation of a personally developed betting line is as far as I’m concerned based on a purely subjective interpretation of the past performances and perhaps some other statistical data. .

Of course it's subjective. You look at all the data, including "live betting and make a judgment on how much if anything you should bet. It's called horse racing.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

I found one. It's called honkongturfcom They sell a DRF type product with speed figures & trainer-jockey stats and comments. You can download a race for free & see how you like the format. Aside from the cost $25 Sha Tin & $15 for Happy Valley, it's pretty good.

Looks like the 4th race is "free" tonight. It's pretty sparse compared to North American PPs, but we'll see how the speed figures compare to the ones at HKJC (in the speed pro link) and the KGR figs from racingandsports.com.au (which show Hong Kong horses to be quite slow compared to other venues) . Last time I checked for alternative PPs for HK a few years ago, the pay sites were all stale links.

Interestly, there is no "morning line" from Hong Kong on most sites, though Xpressbet has a wildly erratic M/L listed on their program. So if one used the M/L in constructing an odds line, you'd be a bit more on your own at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

As a side note, the PPs for Hong Kong are okay for me, since the figures are not nearly as relevant as North American, especially North American dirt racing. What is important is post, jockey switches, and trip, since most of the races are on the turf.

The huge downside to Hong Kong is Moreira. He's a man among boys, is usually on a horse that figures, and is consistently a huge underlay. He easily makes 1/3 to 1/2 of the races unbettable, and I really wish he'd take more days off or retire.

[betovernetcapper]

I make a morning line from the HKJC Speed Pro numbers & run them through a Monte Carlo program 2000 times with a 10% Standard Deviation. It's by no means perfect but OK. I needed a morning line to get certain features of ATR PRO.

The upside to Moreira, is that everyone thinks he's magic. Purton rides almost as many winners but you tend to get better prices. In addition, if you like something the Magic Man is not riding, your probably getting a few points. So it all evens out. Do share your wish that he'd retire though.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Nitro

And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures.

I think Hillary Clintons old man was Prez the last time I paid for PP's. Just sayin.