methodology of choosing horses

As they have always said "pace makes the race"

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

I voted the top 3 as my most important, but you left off my fourth important factor--condition.

If the fastest horse with all higher class races is entered, but is coming off a long layoff with only a 3f workout, it will probably not win. Unless it worked out off track, but I wouldn't know that and would not play it.

form falls under trainer /form cycle and is a staple of my handicapping

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by louisianawoman

As they have always said "pace makes the race"

seems like the majority use pace as a mainstay and basis for their selection method

[andymays]

All these things are more or less important depending on the individual race and type of race.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by andymays

All these things are more or less important depending on the individual race and type of race.

very true but a pace handicapper may stay away from certain type races ...turf routes ..where a class handicapper may have an edge..as someone who follows trainer angles may excel in claiming sprints...etc.etc

[off'nclear]

Way back when, had the world's DREAM program. Had track models, printed out how race should run, based on that model (age, sex, distance, dirt, turf...no one had yet decided to run on ground up old ttires or whatever poly is supposed to be.) However, I do think a model on poly would still give the same results) Each entrant showed up and showed if it could make calls, etc. Life was SIMPLE. I gather that I was the only person who used this particular method of using the program because "upgrades" thereafter eliminated my "system"

It was simple to see who could not meet the calls, eliminate those. Who would insist on the lead...who would quit if contested. /who "liked the track", which trainer was almost always in the money, and a scad of other decisions led to ELIMINATIONS. I could never tell you for SURE who would win, but I was very good at figuring out who would be in the money.

I am a chicken bettor. I HATE giving up $$. I, unlike hubby, don't believe that I'm betting the track's $. If it's been in my pocket, it's mine. We'd go to track or OTB (Lancaster) where I'd bet my Sprint Rogers' suggestion (2-4-12), and he'd bet exotics. I'd have $30, he'd have several hundred and I'd wonder how we had the same horses, but he'd make a good profit.

Program changed to looking at some columns of numbers....and I was absolutely LOST. There must be some word that is even worse then LOST but I can't think of it. (It probably starts with "F")

Needless to say, it's been a LONG time since I've been spring chicken and being an old dog, I don't want to learn new tricks.

[Warren Henry]

Originally Posted by off'nclear

Way back when, had the world's DREAM program.

What product was it?. Any way to get back to the version prior to the updates that ruined it for you?

[cmoore]

Maiden Race Handicapping.
I circle the top sprint sires in the race..This includes the sire, grand sire and broodmare sire..Even in routes.

I look over the insider picks and power plays. They show clocker workouts and key races. I circle each of those on the pps and look over each horses workout pattern...I draw a line to seperate each month of workouts..That shows me how many works per month instead of counting the days between each work. That can get time consuming, especially when there's 8-10 first time starters..If a horse only has one work in a given month. That gap shows up easily..

I look over the race reports at breedingwinners.com...

I look over the ultimate summary sheets..Mostly the SPI and AWD number.

Then the following...
Pace Figures are first and foremost...Who's getting the lead
Run Style....How many E or Ep style runners in the race
Race Ratings...Who faced tougher company
Class Ratings..Who performed the best in their last race or two

I print out all pps using the TSN custom pp generator. No ML odds and the workouts are blended in between races..The layoff line is set at 37 days.

I use Procaps Software. It makes it real easy to compare many different factors side by side.

Then of course Value dictates my bet..I look for long shots. I don't bet short prices very often. Sometimes a 3-1 will offer value. But normally I'll go to exactas at shorter prices..

[off'nclear]

It's All-In-One versions 1-5. We still have 5...but AZ makes it difficult to bet.

I've noticed while lurking here for several years that most have little respect for Allinone, but it consistently made $$$$$$$$ for us. With two exceptions:
I did poorly choosing horses at Hollywood, and when Del Mar changed something (before the synthetic) I bombed there, too.

I think I'm the only one who eliminates, rather than selects, so I guess that's why things "improved."

In hopes that AZ will improve, I have one laptop and one pc with Windows 98 that run the program. The question then becomes will those old things be able to reach HDW... another question...will that info "fit" the program.

I still have a uselss Toshiba notebook with 1MB ram, Windows 3.1 and OLD version of Allinone. Useless in that browser's so old nothing recognizes it. And it was so FAST with 14k modem! The PC had 9 kb

Might as well tell a funny...hubby rushes off to bet a race, places his bet, and wins Tri & Super. Finds out he's rushed so well, he bet the wrong race. Decides he'll bet the one he planned, and the same numbers ran in the same order.

[nobeyerspls]

None of the above except that class is looked at after several other factors are weighed.

[lamboguy]

i vote for none of the choices. all i do know is that if you base your picking on any or all of those choices you are guaranteed to lose all or part of your money. you will get eaten up by the percentages that you are paying. in order to win at this brutal game you must do something different than those choices and different from the majority of the people playing the game.

i beat this game years ago consistanly before the racing form published track varient's and italicized next out winners.

[Cadillakin]

A good player needs to learn every approach. The various tools and methods become more or less relevant depending on the makeup of the fields under study.

An edge or angle becomes apparent when one of the entrants owns a quality or two that is lacking within the field. A good trainer is less important in a field of good trainers.. Early speed is more important in a field without it. A great looking horse in the post parade is not so important if a few other entrants looks equally great. And so on....

Finding the winner is an effort to realize the relative differences within the field, and to exploit those differences by betting the horses whose qualities are superior - in the context of the race conditions, pace, class, form, and likely race shape.

Pace and class assessments are the foundation for distinguishing the competitor from the non-competitive. But the comparisons must go much deeper if one is to sufficiently realize the superiority of one entrant over the others...

All the tools are needed at various times.. and the tools of most import will change from race to race. Recognizing superiority when others don't, and attaining pricing that allows for consistent profit should be the players final consideration, and should overview any handicapping effort regardless of the tools he or she has chosen.

[fmolf]

i guess i did not phrase the question correctly.. i am was looking to find out what is the most important factor in your handicappingsuch as ....you have field narrowed down to three contenders..one owns the best final speed figures at the distance...two owns the best early pace figs...the other is a first off the claim horse for a trainer successful with this move...all three horse are overlaid because a class horse is dropping severely and is odds on false favorite...which horse would your handicapping lead you too?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Perhaps I'm splitting semantic hairs with your thread title, but I use multiple weighted elements such as the ones you listed for evaluating or rating the horses in a race. However, for choosing which one(s) I'm going to bet, odds and wagering value have the last word for me.

Well said.

[Robert Fischer]

I use a comprehensive approach where I generally read the form and look at all the information that it gives you, and then watch the videos of the important races.

I don't always look for 1 thing in particular, but I will use "every trick in the book" as necessary.

I think that handicapping the horses as individuals is pretty much a secondary thing, and that it gets an undeserved reputation as the most important facet of horseplaying.

among evaluating the individual horses, unique opinions most important=
Some players are better at noticing the subtle suggestions that could separate from the pack of common public opinion. I think that a lot of that is related to video. Other things that have that type of impact are understanding about the dynamics of the races (the way the track was playing, how having the outside post affected that horse, noticing a race that you can "toss")