place & show market efficiency

[Half Smoke]

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this is an old scholarly study from 1980 - 42 years ago

it suggests that selective betting on place and show can be profitable due to market inefficiencies

the flaw as I see it in the study - I don't know how he has calculated the theoretical expected return

what do you make of this__? is it too old and/or unclear to be useful?

or does it have some value____?

my own take is that place and/or show betting can be worthwhile at times as long as there is not a small field



https://i.imgur.com/jKCTT9c.png



https://www.researchgate.net/publica...etrack_Betting



.




.

[Half Smoke]

______________


one other thought


a lot of punters won't bet place or show because they don't like the risk/reward profile of this type of bet

what is the importance of risk/reward compared to pure R.O.I.

my thought: risk/reward is much less important in the long run than R.O.I.



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[davew]

Dr Z's work might have worked when published. but rarely now. The problem is late betting turning overlays into underlays.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

______________
my thought: risk/reward is much less important in the long run than R.O.I.
.

I guarantee it becomes more important when you're maximizing bet sizes relative to the pool than to a $200 bankroll.

As for the initial premise, as DaveW pointed out, sadly that ship has sailed.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by davew

Dr Z's work might have worked when published. but rarely now. The problem is late betting turning overlays into underlays.

Truth (I run the dr z formulas for fun every once in a while)

Currently, I think the bridge jumpers are all praying on Kentucky with the penny breakage. They're paying off to the dime on show bets.

I believe there's money to be made betting to show. However, I'm personally not smart enough to make these bets on my own. It's just too complex for me to attempt show bets.

On a Fred Flinstone level... if you rubbed your magic lamp and the genie told you the favorite was 100% out of the money. I'd say fire away

[Light]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

_____________

it suggests that selective betting on place and show can be profitable due to market inefficiencies

That's another way of saying you have to watch the tote board. I recently got $11.20 to show on a 4-1 shot because I thought the big favorite would not hit the board, which he didn't. He had 75% of the show pool.

But we need to evolve from these ideas,not only show betting but all ideas on horse racing.

For example, instead of show betting a horse and maybe losing the show because the jock mistimes his horse's kick and runs 4th by a nose, I've bet 2 horses to win as a show betting variant. So betting a 2-1 and a 3-1 to win will pay $6 to win at worst. That is betting $4 to win $6 which is the equivalent of getting $3 to show from $2. Many times both of those horses show payouts may be under $3, in small fields, so there again you have an exploitation of the market that Dr. Z did not mention or consider.

IMO, you can make way more money betting to show than win or exotics. I can take $20 and turn it into $70, a $50 profit with a selective show betting parlay, than a handicapper can make $50 betting to win or exotics. Yes he may beat me some days but I will beat him more often and he will lose more often which will tip the ROI in my favor. Show betting is easier because it diminishes the damage an unexpected or overlooked winner does to your ROI.

In other words you have more room for error with show betting than win betting which is what makes it easier.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by davew

Dr Z's work might have worked when published. but rarely now. The problem is late betting turning overlays into underlays.

true and add to what you posted the ability to cancel fake bets as the horses are in the gate.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I guarantee it becomes more important when you're maximizing bet sizes relative to the pool than to a $200 bankroll.

true, for many tracks, but at the BAQ this past Wed. on a lowly claiming race
the WPS pool was $231,440

I'm guessing it broke down as:

$130 K win, $65 K place, and $ 36 K show

without doing the math I would presume a punter could make a $500 show bet and not have much effect on the payout



.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Light

That's another way of saying you have to watch the tote board. I recently got $11.20 to show on a 4-1 shot because I thought the big favorite would not hit the board, which he didn't. He had 75% of the show pool.

But we need to evolve from these ideas,not only show betting but all ideas on horse racing.

For example, instead of show betting a horse and maybe losing the show because the jock mistimes his horse's kick and runs 4th by a nose, I've bet 2 horses to win as a show betting variant. So betting a 2-1 and a 3-1 to win will pay $6 to win at worst. That is betting $4 to win $6 which is the equivalent of getting $3 to show from $2. Many times both of those horses show payouts may be under $3, in small fields, so there again you have an exploitation of the market that Dr. Z did not mention or consider.

IMO, you can make way more money betting to show than win or exotics. I can take $20 and turn it into $70, a $50 profit with a selective show betting parlay, than a handicapper can make $50 betting to win or exotics. Yes he may beat me some days but I will beat him more often and he will lose more often which will tip the ROI in my favor. Show betting is easier because it diminishes the damage an unexpected or overlooked winner does to your ROI.

In other words you have more room for error with show betting than win betting which is what makes it easier.

I agree, and thank you for that excellent post


.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

true, for many tracks, but at the BAQ this past Wed. on a lowly claiming race
the WPS pool was $231,440

I'm guessing it broke down as:

$130 K win, $65 K place, and $ 36 K show

without doing the math I would presume a punter could make a $500 show bet and not have much effect on the payout



.

too late to edit -

what I posted here is not correct

it probably would have a fair size effect on the payout on a shot and might not on the fave or 2nd fave

and I would scale back the size of the bet to $300



.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

true, for many tracks, but at the BAQ this past Wed. on a lowly claiming race
the WPS pool was $231,440

I'm guessing it broke down as:

$130 K win, $65 K place, and $ 36 K show

without doing the math I would presume a punter could make a $500 show bet and not have much effect on the payout
.

Absolutely.

As long as the pool has no whales.

[ranchwest]

I am not interested in show wagers as a habit.

But if I happen to notice real opportunity, I will take a small stab. I have hit a show wager as high as $28.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Light

That's another way of saying you have to watch the tote board. I recently got $11.20 to show on a 4-1 shot because I thought the big favorite would not hit the board, which he didn't. He had 75% of the show pool.

But we need to evolve from these ideas,not only show betting but all ideas on horse racing.

For example, instead of show betting a horse and maybe losing the show because the jock mistimes his horse's kick and runs 4th by a nose, I've bet 2 horses to win as a show betting variant. So betting a 2-1 and a 3-1 to win will pay $6 to win at worst. That is betting $4 to win $6 which is the equivalent of getting $3 to show from $2. Many times both of those horses show payouts may be under $3, in small fields, so there again you have an exploitation of the market that Dr. Z did not mention or consider.

IMO, you can make way more money betting to show than win or exotics. I can take $20 and turn it into $70, a $50 profit with a selective show betting parlay, than a handicapper can make $50 betting to win or exotics. Yes he may beat me some days but I will beat him more often and he will lose more often which will tip the ROI in my favor. Show betting is easier because it diminishes the damage an unexpected or overlooked winner does to your ROI.

In other words you have more room for error with show betting than win betting which is what makes it easier.

Show parlays would be the only way I could see profiting from show bets. I'm not sure what the optimum size parlay would be, though. I don't know if it would work with a two horse show parlay.

[Light]

Originally Posted by pandy

Show parlays would be the only way I could see profiting from show bets.

Not true.I have no problems playing show bets straight without parlaying and achieving 10-1 on my money regularly.

[Half Smoke]

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somehow all the talk became about show - nothing about place

I have found that very strong fave at 4/5 will sometimes pay about $3.00 to place if he comes with a shot

and the show payout might be $2.10 or 2.20

so, the place profit is 5 or 10 times as much as the show profit



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