Sometimes they just know!

[GMB@BP]

I always look back at a race after to see what I missed. On 10/9/22 race 7 at Kee, a mdn special, the winner had a line that was tough to come up with.

Sent off at 23-1 in his debut for a solid barn he did little to no running on the inside of the track. Granted the winner was a nice horse there was nothing to indicate this horse should improve, at least to me. Barn is just as good first a second so that angle was shot, the trip angle didnt pan, and its not like he took money and just had a bad day.

Yet 15/1 ml gets pounded to 5/1 and then absolutely airs by 5 in what i thought was an ok field.

I usually can find a reason but in this case it just felt like they knew and really big players hammered him.

PP for reference.



https://imgur.com/a/6eiLj3q

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I always look back at a race after to see what I missed. On 10/9/22 race 7 at Kee, a mdn special, the winner had a line that was tough to come up with.

Sent off at 23-1 in his debut for a solid barn he did little to no running on the inside of the track. Granted the winner was a nice horse there was nothing to indicate this horse should improve, at least to me. Barn is just as good first a second so that angle was shot, the trip angle didnt pan, and its not like he took money and just had a bad day.

Yet 15/1 ml gets pounded to 5/1 and then absolutely airs by 5 in what i thought was an ok field.

I usually can find a reason but in this case it just felt like they knew and really big players hammered him.

PP for reference.



https://imgur.com/a/6eiLj3q

Nice example Gmb you proved that horses who have bad lines in recent races but have positives coming into today deserve a 2nd look

Even the CLOSER LOOK comment was hinting at a good race for this horse

"He is in good hands and just might provide backers with a nice Sunday special"

Thanks, DRF this game is so easy

[cj]

The only way IMO was the money.

[P.Rosa]

He was the 5th favorite in a nine horse field.

The 4 & 5 are pets, #9 needs class relief.

I hated the 10 because the connections already gave up on him.
When owners pay $280,000 for a colt, they are looking for a Triple Crown contender. His last race was on the turf, Triple Crown races are not run on the turf. #10 was over bet.

The odds were just about right.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The only way IMO was the money.

Bullets at Keeneland, 1st start at Churchill, now running at Keeneland angle?

[metro]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

He was the 5th favorite in a nine horse field.

The 4 & 5 are pets, #9 needs class relief.

I hated the 10 because the connections already gave up on him.
When owners pay $280,000 for a colt, they are looking for a Triple Crown contender. His last race was on the turf, Triple Crown races are not run on the turf. #10 was over bet.

The odds were just about right.

Can you put a lot of weight into connections going the KY Downs route for MSW races when their bloodlines or other factors seemingly say dirt? The purses there just make it too tempting to not try. It does throw another variable into handicapping maidens at Kee and CD in the fall though.

Agree with your other points, that was a weak MSW field all things considered. Would add that those 2yo, MSW going 7F at Kee, very much favor horses with experience.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

He was the 5th favorite in a nine horse field.

The 4 & 5 are pets, #9 needs class relief.

I hated the 10 because the connections already gave up on him.
When owners pay $280,000 for a colt, they are looking for a Triple Crown contender. His last race was on the turf, Triple Crown races are not run on the turf. #10 was over bet.

The odds were just about right.

While I generally agree with that thought the KD races seem to grab plenty of well bred dirt horses, its been tough to figure out.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Bullets at Keeneland, 1st start at Churchill, now running at Keeneland angle?

I saw that too as possible, but 5-1 type angle, hard.

[shout1966]

Lemon Drop Kid is my favorite horse to follow in breeding lines. His horses do improve with distance so that could be added to this.

[classhandicapper]

The biggest problem I have with this kind of thing is that none of us knows everything about everything that's relevant to the betting. We are using different figures, sometimes miss a bias, trip, or trainer pattern etc..

It's hard to tell when you missed something or when insiders may have had access to information you didn't.

I saw a couple this weekend where I shook my head because I didn't understand the betting at all and the horse won. I still don't know whether I missed something and I looked at every set of figures, had trips and bias notes etc..

[Light]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's hard to tell when you missed something or when insiders may have had access to information you didn't.

There was no need for "inside info" here. The data was plain to see. This horse was a true contender.

Of the 5 horses who had run (not the Fts's), he was:
Rated second on SR numbers alone.
His LP was top ranked top in the field.
His break was poor in his debut breaking 10th from an 11 horse field.
His form factor (my method) was 2nd in the field.

So SR=2 LP =1 FF=2 Trouble in debut. What's not to like?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Light

There was no need for "inside info" here. The data was plain to see. This horse was a true contender.

Of the 5 horses who had run (not the Fts's), he was:
Rated second on SR numbers alone.
His LP was top ranked top in the field.
His break was poor in his debut breaking 10th from an 11 horse field.
His form factor (my method) was 2nd in the field.

So SR=2 LP =1 FF=2 Trouble in debut. What's not to like?

I didn't look at the race in question, but you did a great job of making my point.

None of us knows every relevant piece of information about a race and we are all working with different information. So "they knew" is sometimes actually "I didn't know". That must be the case with the races that perplexed me this weekend.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Light

There was no need for "inside info" here. The data was plain to see. This horse was a true contender.

Of the 5 horses who had run (not the Fts's), he was:
Rated second on SR numbers alone.
His LP was top ranked top in the field.
His break was poor in his debut breaking 10th from an 11 horse field.
His form factor (my method) was 2nd in the field.

So SR=2 LP =1 FF=2 Trouble in debut. What's not to like?

I watched the break in the 9/17 race, just looked like he was slow to get going, I didnt see any real trouble, I dont think he did anything different from the break on Sunday. I wanted to rewatch because I thought I missed something when I did my notes from that day at CDI.

I will say he did make somewhat of a small move on the turn before flattening out indicating maybe some ability and it was a fast race...taking all that in 5/1 seems awfully short (obviously not in hindsight).

[GMB@BP]

Tomorrow 10/12 race 5 Kee....whats the opinion on this horse, 4/1.

https://imgur.com/ifFOAhR

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I watched the break in the 9/17 race, just looked like he was slow to get going, I didnt see any real trouble, I dont think he did anything different from the break on Sunday. I wanted to rewatch because I thought I missed something when I did my notes from that day at CDI.

I will say he did make somewhat of a small move on the turn before flattening out indicating maybe some ability and it was a fast race...taking all that in 5/1 seems awfully short (obviously not in hindsight).

Light is VERY smart after races and likes to let people know how dumb they are before the races are run.