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Old 06-07-2022, 10:05 PM   #1
judehaz
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The Belmont Stakes Card

Lots of whining on Twitter about the small fields in some of the graded stakes races Saturday on Belmont Stakes day. What do you all think? Seems to me there are a lot of prohibitive favorites; were owners more inclined to seek high allowance purses elsewhere? I will say that the Belmont card seems to usually be just as good as the Derby card - and this one definitely has some small field sizes.
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Old 06-07-2022, 10:11 PM   #2
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Small fields in many of these races is nothing new but this year it does seem to be worse than I can remember, also races with prohibitive favorites.

The goal is to bring out the star race horses and they did that, the betting product may be lagging but it is what it is in todays racing.

Watch as a fan but going to be pretty tough to find value on those cards. The derby day cards definitely were better.
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Old 06-07-2022, 10:14 PM   #3
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The card is not good for the bettor and concerning for the future of racing
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Old 06-07-2022, 10:33 PM   #4
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The card is not good for the bettor and concerning for the future of racing
I may have Empire State-tinted glasses, but I feel confident that NY, KY and CA racing will be just fine regardless of the future of the sport. NYRA really seems to have the business model down 90% of the time. I wonder if this is a temporary aberration rather than a harbinger for things to come.

Last edited by judehaz; 06-07-2022 at 10:37 PM.
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Old 06-07-2022, 11:05 PM   #5
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Thankfully, there are some potentially strong wagering opportunities.

The Belmont Stakes is always a favorite race of mine, and this year there may be some value regardless of whether you feel the race is balanced.

I'll also be looking at races like the Jaipur, the Belmont Stakes, the All-Turf 'triple play' P3, the 2-day pick 4, 2-day GoldCup/BelmontS etc...

Much of the card, they went overboard in showing appreciation to the connections, breeders, and star horses.
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Old 06-07-2022, 11:19 PM   #6
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Was wondering if anyone else was disappointed at the small fields for so many of the races. 4 Grade I races with only 5 entries each. Another with only 6. One saving grace is that some of the best horses in the country are running on Saturday; e.g., even with only 5 entries, the Ogden Phipps is loaded with a strong field of older fillies and mares.
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Old 06-07-2022, 11:42 PM   #7
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I haven't look at the cards yet, but I very rarely spend more than a minute or two looking at any race with 6 or fewer entries. The odds are just not there. Why bother?
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Old 06-08-2022, 12:00 AM   #8
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It really hasn't changed too much since I became a fan. My memory insists racing was much better and far more competitive with bigger fields back then. But, going back and taking a look at my favorite year of 1994. It reveals mostly comparable field sizes to Saturdays.

1994

ACORN : 5

JUST A GAME : 5

BROOKLYN : 7

WOODY STEPHENS : 9

OGDEN PHIPPS : 5

JAIPUR : 14

MET MILE : 10

MANHATTAN : 7

BELMONT STKS: 6



2022


ACORN : 5

JUST A GAME : 5

BROOKLYN : 7

WOODY STEPHENS : 6

OGDEN PHIPPS : 5

JAIPUR : 13

MET MILE : 5

MANHATTAN : 10

BELMONT STKS : 8


I've learned to just enjoy watching good horses run, even if the race doesn't offer a wagering opportunity. The JUST A GAME is a prime example, can't wait to see that turn of foot from Speak of the Devil.
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Old 06-08-2022, 02:14 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by judehaz View Post
I may have Empire State-tinted glasses, but I feel confident that NY, KY and CA racing will be just fine regardless of the future of the sport. NYRA really seems to have the business model down 90% of the time. I wonder if this is a temporary aberration rather than a harbinger for things to come.
I'm of the opinion that contraction of the game reflects the "discretionary" money available in the economy. In other words, how much money is available for the bettors and owners to put into the game after meeting their lifestyle mandatory costs like food, shelter, clothing, etc? This is obviously shrinking for the little guys like me.

Furthermore, I think the economy, especially in the US, is going to contract pretty steeply with stagflation, more expensive resources and energy, and limited expansion potential. Just the increased cost of diesel fuel will make almost every consumer product more expensive. "Degrowth" is the wave of the future.

NYRA is my favorite North American circuit. But the cost of doing business in New York and California is prohibitively high, so I see further contraction for two of the three circuits you mentioned. Kentucky, with lower costs and the backbone of the largest and best breeding operation in the world, will be more resilient in the near term. But if transportation costs continue to remain high or increase, which I think is likely, then KY will also see contraction in the long term as racing contracts to more localized venues.

So, in other words, short fields on Belmont Day? It's the new normal.
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Old 06-08-2022, 07:26 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by judehaz View Post
I may have Empire State-tinted glasses, but I feel confident that NY, KY and CA racing will be just fine regardless of the future of the sport. NYRA really seems to have the business model down 90% of the time. I wonder if this is a temporary aberration rather than a harbinger for things to come.
Please don't forget Arkansas.

Our meet at Oaklawn is pretty terrific!

Opening day for the 2022-2023 season is Friday Dec. 9.
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Old 06-08-2022, 09:01 AM   #11
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There are probably too many graded stakes to begin with, but there are also too many top horses in the hands of too few trainers. The latter gives trainers an incentive to at least try to keep their top horses apart. The number of graded stakes gives them more of an opportunity to do so. It may be difficult to get the number of graded stakes reduced, but it's at least theoretically doable. I'm not so sure how you can control 4-5 trainers having most of the good horses.
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Old 06-08-2022, 09:20 AM   #12
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It simply isn't a good wagering card.

Late P6 and P5 that leads into the Belmont Stakes is 6x5x13x5x10x8.

In those fields you have ML favorites of 1/2, 6/5, and 3/5. To make a play in the P6 or P5, you'll likely need to single 2 legs, if not 3 to make any kind of valuable play.

If the G1 Jaipur and G1 Manhattan chalk-out, it will be some woeful payouts unless something off the wall happens.

2014 was when this mega Belmont card came about as the Met Mile used to be held on a different date. In 2014 when Palace Malice won, there were 12 that ran in the Met Mile. Since 2014, there have been the following entrants in the Met Mile: 12, 10, 10, 12, 11, 9, 8, 6. And now 5.

The decline has been sharp over the last 4 years.
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Old 06-08-2022, 09:21 AM   #13
Andy Asaro
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Belmont Stakes Racing Festival to include a host of two-day special wagers


https://www.belmontstakes.com/news/2...special-wagers


Two-Day Pick 6 returns Friday, June 10

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) today announced a selection of special wagers to be offered during the 2022 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.

The half dozen two-day wagers are highlighted by the return of the popular two-day Pick 6, which will open on Friday, June 10 and concludes with the 154th running of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday, June 11.

Headlined by the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday, June 11, the three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival kicks off on Thursday, June 9 and will include 17 stakes races in total with eight Grade 1 races to be contested on Belmont Stakes Day.

Day 1 of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival on Thursday, June 9 is a twilight racing program with a first post of 3:05 p.m. Eastern. First post on Friday, June 4 is 12:50 p.m. First post on Belmont Stakes Day is 11:20 a.m.

The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival will offer a total of six two-day special wagers including:

Two-day Pick 6

Returning to the wagering menu is the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival two-day Pick 6, which features a low 15 percent takeout and $0.20 base wager. The two-day Pick 6 opens on Friday and continues Saturday, ending with a mandatory force out in the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

The sequence begins on Friday in Race 9 at 5:17 p.m. with the Grade 2, $300,000 True North and the Grade 1, $750,000 New York in Race 10. Saturday’s four-race sequence will include Grade 1, $400,000 Woody Stephens presented by Mohegan Sun in Race 6, the Grade 1, $400,000 Jaipur in Race 8, the Grade 1, $750,000 Resorts World Casino Manhattan in Race 10 and concludes with the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

Two-day Pick 4

The two-day Pick 4 opens Friday with the Grade 1 New York in Race 10 at 5:50 p.m. and includes the Grade 3, $200,000 Intercontinental in Race 11. The wager concludes Saturday with the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan and the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.. The base wager is $2 with a 24 percent takeout.

The New York/Met Mile Double

The New York Double opens with the Grade 1, $750,000 New York on Friday and concludes with the Grade 1, $1 million Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap on Saturday. The base wager is $1 with an 18.5 percent takeout.

Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes Double

The Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes Double opens with the Belmont Gold Cup in Race 8 at 4:42 p.m. on Friday and concludes with the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday. The base wager is $1 with an 18.5 percent takeout.

Two-day Filly and Mare Double

The Filly and Mare Double opens with the Grade 3, $200,000 Intercontinental on Friday and concludes with the Grade 1, $500,000 Ogden Phipps on Saturday. The base wager is $1 with an 18.5 percent takeout.

Two-day Sprint Double

The two-day Sprint Double opens with the Grade 2, $300,000 True North in Race 9 at 5:17 p.m. on Friday and concludes with the Grade 1 Jaipur on Saturday. The base wager is $1 with an 18.5 percent takeout.

New on the 2022 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival wagering menu are:

Triple Play ($3 Pick 3)

The special all-turf Triple Play ($3 Pick 3) will be offered on Belmont Stakes Day and opens with the Grade 1, $500,000 Longines Just a Game in Race 4 at 1:08 p.m. followed by the Grade 1 Jaipur, and concluding with the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan. The base wager is $3 with a 19 percent takeout.

Met Mile/Belmont Stakes Double

The Met Mile/Belmont Stakes Double on Saturday opens with the Grade 1, $1 million Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap in Race 9 at 4:43 p.m. and concludes with the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets. The base wager is $1 with an 18.5 percent takeout.

***

The traditional $1 Pick 6, with carryover provision, will also be offered on each day of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The Pick 6 on Saturday, June 11 will conclude with the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

Belmont Stakes Day will feature an early, middle, and late Pick 5, with the middle Pick 5 offering a mandatory payout and concluding with the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.
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Old 06-08-2022, 10:39 AM   #14
Redboard
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2017
ACORN : 7
JUST A GAME : 7
BROOKLYN : 6
WOODY STEPHENS : 11
OGDEN PHIPPS : 7
JAIPUR : 10
MET MILE : 12
MANHATTAN : 9
BELMONT STKS : 12
Total: 81
Only one winner, Songbird (1/3) in the OGDEN PHIPPS, was less than 9/5.
----
2022
ACORN : 5
JUST A GAME : 5
BROOKLYN : 7
WOODY STEPHENS : 6
OGDEN PHIPPS : 5
JAIPUR : 13
MET MILE : 5
MANHATTAN : 10
BELMONT STKS : 8
Total: 64 (21% drop-off from 2017)
-------
The Belmont undercard used to be my favorite day after the Breeders cup.
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Old 06-08-2022, 10:41 AM   #15
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I haven't look at the cards yet, but I very rarely spend more than a minute or two looking at any race with 6 or fewer entries. The odds are just not there. Why bother?
How many will end up 3 or 4 horse fields?
Last year, 2 5 horse fields all day.

Parx is running Saturday.......
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