Taiba versus Zandon versus White Abarrio versus Epicenter

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

I don't think Epicenter is good enough to beat the others. White Abarrio is definitely a win contender

[f2tornado]

Zandon appears to be the real deal and Chad Brown has his horses ready for a peak effort on the third run. Prat is one of the hottest riders in the country. I suspect he will have the horse a little closer to the front at CD and attempt make a big passing move we're desperate to see after years of merry go rounds.

Taiba ran impressively but I can't double first that kind of horse in the Derby. I might small fist and hope he's the next Justify with Mike Smith.

I felt White Abarrio's run in the FL Derby was underwhelming. Hard to dismiss a FL Derby winner but I cannot get over the slow late fractions. Feels like the type that will pass some tired rivals and finish 8th.

I get the feeling Epicenter has peaked, but his last two suggests the horse has the stamina to be in the picture late. Reminds me of a better version of Hot Rod Charlie. Horse is already helped by a couple early pace defectors. I won't leave him out of my trifecta, especially with JR aboard, and could use in at least minor fashion on top if he gets a favorable draw.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Zandon appears to be the real deal and Chad Brown has his horses ready for a peak effort on the third run. Prat is one of the hottest riders in the country. I suspect he will have the horse a little closer to the front at CD and attempt make a big passing move we're desperate to see after years of merry go rounds.

Taiba ran impressively but I can't double first that kind of horse in the Derby. I might small fist and hope he's the next Justify with Mike Smith.

I felt White Abarrio's run in the FL Derby was underwhelming. Hard to dismiss a FL Derby winner but I cannot get over the slow late fractions. Feels like the type that will pass some tired rivals and finish 8th.

I get the feeling Epicenter has peaked, but his last two suggests the horse has the stamina to be in the picture late. Reminds me of a better version of Hot Rod Charlie. Horse is already helped by a couple early pace defectors. I won't leave him out of my trifecta, especially with JR aboard, and could use in at least minor fashion on top if he gets a favorable draw.

I hope you're right about the 3rd run. I don't follow him too closely but it seems like his main track horses run 1 or 2 huge races and then lose it and run up the track at low odds????

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I hope you're right about the 3rd run. I don't follow him too closely but it seems like his main track horses run 1 or 2 huge races and then lose it and run up the track at low odds????

He's been improving on the dirt to the point his 2022 dirt record (41% W, 67 WPS!) is superior to his turf record (27% W, 55% WPS). Basically, leaving Brown out of your trifecta will result in half to two-thirds of your tickets being tore up. He had Good Magic primed several years back but got Justify'd.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's been improving on the dirt to the point his 2022 dirt record (41% W, 67 WPS!) is superior to his turf record (27% W, 55% WPS). Basically, leaving Brown out of your trifecta will result in half to two-thirds of your tickets being tore up. He had Good Magic primed several years back but got Justify'd.

Thanks.

[Musket Man]

2 preps has been the formula for peaking on Derby Day.

Epicenter has three preps and will need to run faster than he previously has to win IMHO. Usually not a recipe for success w/his prep schedule. (2 preps is a plus when I start to handicap the Derby). Have their been exceptions, yes, but give me the two prep schedule when sorting through the process.

Abarrio will need a hose to get the distance. He'll get play, which is a good thing, because it'll increase the value of others. The Fla. Derby was slow coming home, as F2 has pointed out. I won't no part of that contingent May 7th.

Barring post position draws, and how the next 27 days transpire, I see three likely winners at this point.

[Robert Fischer]

evolving opinions and still learning


I don't yet understand Taiba. He has flashed me some 'brilliance' that hasn't been as common from his team in the past year and a half or so, but I have to basically handicap him from scratch. If he is in fact that type, he's anywhere from a winner to a top 6 runner.

I will say that Epicenter looks like perhaps the most likely runner to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Of course the pace of the field will be important.

I don't see White Abarrio as capable of contending in the Kentucky Derby, and I think he needs to sit a good trip to run for 3rd-6th.

Zandon is a hard-hitter. I have to re-watch his Bluegrass to understand him more. I'd love to see some of his pre-Derby works, but he appears to be a hard-hitter that can contend or be in the mix. He seems close to Epicenter in terms of hitting the board, even though he isn't the reliable pace-setter of Epicenter.

I want to watch Smile Happy's Bluegrass again.

I need to evaluate Mo Donegal. He's a big classy plodder, but at a glance he may have moved forward and although he saved ground and made the last move, he seemed to be the only one closing.

Cyberknife is worth watching in his pre-derby works. I have respect for that team and the horse is a nice big physical animal

Slow Down Andy has the Preakness look to me, but is worth noting his training if there is significant improvement

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...44980154249217

Maybe it's in his blood. And I don't mean bloodlines...

[cj]

Originally Posted by Musket Man

2 preps has been the formula for peaking on Derby Day.

Epicenter has three preps and will need to run faster than he previously has to win IMHO. Usually not a recipe for success w/his prep schedule. (2 preps is a plus when I start to handicap the Derby). Have their been exceptions, yes, but give me the two prep schedule when sorting through the process.

Abarrio will need a hose to get the distance. He'll get play, which is a good thing, because it'll increase the value of others. The Fla. Derby was slow coming home, as F2 has pointed out. I won't no part of that contingent May 7th.

Barring post position draws, and how the next 27 days transpire, I see three likely winners at this point.

Starts in the calendar year before the Derby:

2021 Medina Spirit 4
2020 XXXXXXX
2019 Country House 4 (Max Security 3)
2018 Justify 3
2017 Always Dreaming 3
2016 Nyquist 2
2015 American Pharoah 2
2014 California Chrome 3
2013 Orb 3

I don't think it is set in stone that 2 starts is ideal. The horses that won the Derby on the above list with just two starts had plenty of two year old foundation.

[classhandicapper]

I've been a little suspect of the leading CA 3yos. There are two ways to look at Taiba. Either he's pretty special to win the SA Derby in only his second start stretching out from 6F or 9F or maybe Messier and the other CA 3yos are not all that good.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've been a little suspect of the leading CA 3yos. There are two ways to look at Taiba. Either he's pretty special to win the SA Derby in only his second start stretching out from 6F or 9F or maybe Messier and the other CA 3yos are not all that good.

Or it could play out like a Real Quiet-Indian Charlie type scenario.

Or Lil E. Tee-Pine Bluff.

Or Unbridled-Summer Squall.

Or Funny Cide-Empire Maker.

Or Ferdinand-Snow Chief.

Or Monarchos-Congaree.

Or Sea Hero-Prairie Bayou.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Or it could play out like a Real Quiet-Indian Charlie type scenario.

Or Lil E. Tee-Pine Bluff.

Or Unbridled-Summer Squall.

Or Funny Cide-Empire Maker.

Or Ferdinand-Snow Chief.

Or Monarchos-Congaree.

Or Sea Hero-Prairie Bayou.

Or Rock Your World - Medina Spirit

Is it me or Messier wasn't pushed in the final 8th?