Horses to watch: Script.

[Profesor]

Class
You shouldn’t question The Little Guy he is God he knows everything

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

This is my first post since after Script early races....

His Wed race was creditable......winners on Wed had to be near the lead....

he being 4 1/2 lts behind compromised his chances and besides the 2 best horses in the race came in 2-1....

The time of the race was no big deal being almost identical to the lesser races of the day....

I see him as a alw or maybe small stakes kind of a horse ....

A Derby type.....mostly likely...NO

Mike

a few more races in hand now......

In last 2 races HTR's Rank K ( big factor in HTR) had horse ranked 2 in last 2 races.....he ran 3rd in both and should have ran better...

proves maiden win wasn't that great ...but it can change if horse gets better

[classhandicapper]

This horse is really starting to come around on the turf. Missed by a nose today, but that was a pretty good field and he was moving best at the end in a race without too much pace.

[dnlgfnk]

Redux. Everyone grab your popcorn.

You may be right about the turf specification, though I seldom differentiate between surfaces and find it to be another one of the assumed truths about the game. He's had no greatly troubled trip or done anything with any great élan. The whole field finished within 3 lengths of each other.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This horse is really starting to come around on the turf. Missed by a nose today, but that was a pretty good field and he was moving best at the end in a race without too much pace.

I don't know about the quality of the field; plenty of stakes experience (but obvious unsuccessful experience, as it was a restricted stakes today).

Basically also-rans from an already weak 3yo turf crop in CA. As a barometer, St. Anthony couldn't even hit the board in minor races in KY & NY, never mind races like the NY Turf Triple.

The horse with the best previous stakes performance in the race was--and still is--a maiden.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I don't know about the quality of the field; plenty of stakes experience (but obvious unsuccessful experience, as it was a restricted stakes today).

Basically also-rans from an already weak 3yo turf crop in CA. As a barometer, St. Anthony couldn't even hit the board in minor races in KY & NY, never mind races like the NY Turf Triple.

The horse with the best previous stakes performance in the race was--and still is--a maiden.

People had written this horse off as a non entity, but he’s obviously on the upswing. His figure took a huge jump up last out and it looks like he probably took another step forward today. He came home in a race fast 22.57. That’s pretty good even with slow fractions in front.

A far as the quality goes, these are 3YOs. These kinds of stakes are typically the equivalent of NW2 or NW3 ALW. That’s more less what this was, but Spycatcher ran a decent race against Slow Down Andy and that one is improving and starting to look multi talented. That race looks pretty strong. IMO these were better than the horses he faced last time.

That’s about 150k in the bank and a couple of forward moves. If he holds together, I sure as hell wouldn’t mind owning him even if he tops out only a bit above this. He’s a nice horse and may win a graded stakes eventually.

[SG4]

From a DRF article about previewing this race the other day, Graham Motion said of Script "I thought he was a Derby-type horse.” Too bad Graham wasn't lurking on the boards to jump into this fray when it started late last year.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

People had written this horse off as a non entity, but he’s obviously on the upswing.

Not really my concern, but at least let's put it all out there if we go that route.

He was written off about a year ago after a pair of slow dirt sprints to start his career. You are now trying to graft his rejuvenation on the turf onto his weak form as a dirt 2yo/3yo.

It's like saying back in 1991 after Lure broke his maiden and the 5f track record at Belmont that he would be a major Kentucky Derby contender, then watch him flame out both in the Champagne & the Derby trials, and saying "I told you so" after he ran second in the Kelso on turf...

His figure took a huge jump up last out and it looks like he probably took another step forward today.

You forgot to mention that there was an 8-month layoff and surface switch in-between that "huge jump".

At least you should have characterized it as a "huge jump up in slow motion"...

He came home in a race fast 22.57. That’s pretty good even with slow fractions in front.

I think his come home times as a baby are what got this thread going off the rails in the first place.

Today's race was slower by over a full second than starter allowance horses a couple of races earlier. The 1-2 finishers were both 3yos.

A far as the quality goes, these are 3YOs. These kinds of stakes are typically the equivalent of NW2 or NW3 ALW.

You ignored my point that most of those in this race had already had multiple shots in stakes company and heretofore had only garnered minor placings.

So although you might generalize that 2nd and 3rd level allowance races (which this was not) is a source of horses that are on the rise, this field was not that.

...but Spycatcher ran a decent race against Slow Down Andy and that one is improving and starting to look multi talented.

Spycatcher is the aforementioned maiden that has been able to place in "stakes company" in the SoCal 3yo turf division. That's an indictment of the crop, not a feather in Script's cap.

Slow Down Andy is "starting to look" multi talented? He's a grade 2 winner on both turf and dirt and has a stakes placing while sprinting. I think it's fair to commit and simply say he's versatile. Could use a rider switch, though...

That race looks pretty strong.

The Del Mar Derby looks strong? I don't agree. The winner edged a 70-1 maiden who lost today against weaker. The show horse got scratched as the favorite in the post parade of the Twilight Derby, which was subsequently won by one of the also-rans (Cabo Spirit) who barely beat out another Motion-trained benchwarmer who had failed to make a dent in multiple Grade 3 appearances back east.

IMO these were better than the horses he faced last time.

Probably, but all these have hit a ceiling and it is not set very high. Spycatcher may have some hope of improvement if they actually let him break his maiden. The winner had pretty much beaten every other horse in the race in previous outings.

That’s about 150k in the bank and a couple of forward moves. If he holds together, I sure as hell wouldn’t mind owning him even if he tops out only a bit above this. He’s a nice horse and may win a graded stakes eventually.

At the very least, he might improve enough to beat the starter allowances horses from Race 5...

[classhandicapper]

Spalding,

This isn’t complex.

The OP said he thought the horse was talented based on what he saw, that Motion rarely rushes his horses, and that he would likely improve.

He was laid up after a disappointing effort, but came back working (on synth) a LOT better than when he first came out. He was working like a new horse. And his form on turf verified that. For all we know he might show improved form on dirt also, but they found a nice niche on turf and will probably stay there.

Now he’s a lightly raced 3yo that took a huge step up, another step up yesterday, and probably has the best ahead of him if he stays sound and maybe stretches out further.

So basically, he was a horse with talent, Motion took his time with him, and he’s beginning to turn into a very nice horse. Hmmmn

Fields are what they are. Races like these for 3yos with restrictions are ALW races with labels. They aren’t top horses, but they are good horses with potential and some will continue improving and possibly even win graded stakes. Some horses coming out of these races are improving and winning again. They are good good ALW races.

You are a very sharp guy, but we aren’t comparing every horse to Secretariat and Dr. Fager and every ALW race to the best we’ve ever seen. I’m pretty sure this one won’t even be as good as Flightline who you barely gave credit to. .

This horse might turn out to be a graded stakes winner before it’s all over. That’s a good horse. Again, I wish I owned him.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Spalding,

This isn’t complex.

The OP said he thought the horse was talented based on what he saw, that Motion rarely rushes his horses, and that he would likely improve.

Understood. My foray into this thread was to oppose your statement that the field yesterday was "pretty good". For even a restricted stakes race it wasn't, and especially so if we are now predicting this horse is a future graded stakes winner.

It would have been more accurate to say, as you did in your subsequent post, that he probably faced "better horses than he did last time".

And just so's it doesn't get lost in the shuffle: he lost yesterday.

[cj]

Did he really improve that much? That was a very slow race yesterday. Admittedly the pace had a lot to do with the final time, but a ho hum starter race two slots earlier on the card was run 1.26 seconds faster.

My assistant does Del Mar so I won't speculate on an exact number from yesterday, but at the very best this horse looks like listed stakes quality even based on the last two races.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Did he really improve that much? That was a very slow race yesterday. Admittedly the pace had a lot to do with the final time, but a ho hum starter race two slots earlier on the card was run 1.26 seconds faster.

My assistant does Del Mar so I won't speculate on an exact number from yesterday, but at the very best this horse looks like listed stakes quality even based on the last two races.

He is what he is, but I think he’s likely to continue getting better.

I don’t think anyone claimed he was going to be a beast.

If anything, I was neutral on the horse. I just think there’s little value in knowing that some horse debuted with a 95. He’s going be 4/5 next out and every prospective owner is going to be on the phone trying to purchase him. I way prefer finding the horse that might jump up because I see some talent and know he is going to get a lot better because of how the trainer handles horses.

Personally, I screwed up. I had the horse on my stable mail, knew he was working way better than previously and might make a big jump. I even contacted the OP. Then he came back on turf and I didn’t play him 6.42-1. Someone played him and cashed though. He took a lot of money that day. Someone didn’t care about his 60 Beyers and knew he going to move forward a lot.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Understood. My foray into this thread was to oppose your statement that the field yesterday was "pretty good”.

We obviously disagree on the definition of “pretty good” and the potential Beyer improvement from younger later developing turfers. No big deal.

[senortout]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Of course, but just dismissing a horse because it debuted at a lesser track is dangerous. Too Much Bling came from Ohio. Forest Music had a heckova debut at Laurel.

Secretariat made a fairly early trip over that oval, winning the Laurel Futurity, further stamping his abilities. Furthermore, a good many grand horses simply refuse to lose, whilst showing just enough talent to continue success~ (Secretariat, to be fair, often won with extra gusto, as most of you will recall, using his Belmont as an example.) I would hope for agreement that we have seen something at least very near to Big Red's stature this year, and that the name is NOT Script...but, anything is possible, maybe next year we'll sing his praises, one and all.

[proximity]

two days and two slow n$y stakes.

idk if this is a tribute to the power of lasix or randomness or whatever?