Flightline

[Bullet Plane]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Flightline wasn't fully extended? Prat was all over him until a few yards out in a :25+ final quarter.

Olympiad and Taiba are Grade 1 caliber? One was horribly exposed in the Whitney as a second tier horse and the other is marginally better than Cyberknife.

Both were wisely ridden for minor placings in the Classic, both unhurried immediately out the gate (as both had failed miserably showing tactical speed in there previous attempts to make a dent in a major race); Flightline didn't have to open up on them, they were never involved.

It was a match race with a miler that should have taken place in the 8f Metropolitan back in June but instead was 4 months later going 10 furlongs.

BS

[Inner Dirt]

In the discussion of the greatest horse of all time, winning the triple crown has to give the horse a huge boast. The derby being a big part of that. Winning in a 20 horse field of 3 year olds, you have to be good and lucky.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

In the discussion of the greatest horse of all time, winning the triple crown has to give the horse a huge boast. The derby being a big part of that. Winning in a 20 horse field of 3 year olds, you have to be good and lucky.

One thing to bear in mind is many of the TC winners did not face giant Derby fields like they do now.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Flightline wasn't fully extended? Prat was all over him until a few yards out in a :25+ final quarter.

Olympiad and Taiba are Grade 1 caliber? One was horribly exposed in the Whitney as a second tier horse and the other is marginally better than Cyberknife.

Both were wisely ridden for minor placings in the Classic, both unhurried immediately out the gate (as both had failed miserably showing tactical speed in there previous attempts to make a dent in a major race); Flightline didn't have to open up on them, they were never involved.

It was a match race with a miler that should have taken place in the 8f Metropolitan back in June but instead was 4 months later going 10 furlongs.

I can’t agree with much of that.

I think it’s pretty clear by now Olympiad didn’t fire his “A” race in the Whitney and I don’t think Cyberknife’s effort in the BC Mile did anything to diminish an improving Taiba.

IMO, they (and HRC) were ridden the way they would have been if neither LIG or Flightline were in the race. They aren’t pure speeds, but they have some positional speed. If you open up that big a lead on horses like that early you are typically flying. The pace figures verify the obvious. Not many horses can sustain that kind of pace at 10F, show no real sign of tiring, beat horses of that caliber by more than 8 lengths and put up a very fast final figure. It’s not like there are a lot of conflicting figure or non figure conclusions about what happened here.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

One thing to bear in mind is many of the TC winners did not face giant Derby fields like they do now.

The 1973 Derby had 13 horses in it. Only 6 and 5 in the rest of the TC that year.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Me personally though, I can't put him with horses like Bid, Slew, Secretariat, Fager etc.. but I think he has that talent level.

I think this puts it spot on. He had the talent to be an all time great, but he doesn't have the resume. Even if you use the relaxed standards of current racing schedules, he comes up short.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I understood that; my counterpoint was that Prove Out was in the form of his life.

If I told you there was a horse that beat Forego by open lengths in track record time sprinting and 2 weeks later broke the track record routing while beating a subsequent Grade 1 winner, you'd be heralding him as the 'next Flightline'.

Then after winning a 12 furlong marquee race while beating Triple Crown winner, you'd hail him as a 'horse of a lifetime'.


So you knew that Secretariat was carelessly tossed into a major event going 12 furlongs on a sloppy track barely 2 weeks after a world record performance on the heels of an illness, while putting in two significant work on an entirely different surface, all the while pointing for a totally different race (that he still ran in), and it holds no weight?

You must hold Secretariat to a higher standard than other horses.


That has nothing to do with my post. But I suppose Secretariat could have easily been undefeated if he was managed the way top horses are now. But we probably wouldn't have seen him more than 10 times on the track (and likely never after the Belmont).


Halo was a Grade 1 winner as a racehorse.

At last it comes out. A horse that lost 5x from 21 starts could have " easily been unbeaten."

Btw..does that include his debut? And you left out the part where Secretariat spiked a fever following a loss.

You must hold the horse to a very low standard. Grass works? Casually tossed??? How subjective and forgiving.

Please have the last word.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I think this puts it spot on. He had the talent to be an all time great, but he doesn't have the resume. Even if you use the relaxed standards of current racing schedules, he comes up short.

There can never be a all time great racehorse really if they are a colt, its a problem that racing cannot do much about.

Between the racing spacing phenomenon and the breeding money its just not going to happen.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by mountainman

At last it comes out. A horse that lost 5x from 21 starts could have " easily been unbeaten."

What comes out? I don't think his losses should be expunged. I simply said if he was carefully managed he could have won every start. I'm presuming he'd be managed the way horses like Flightline & Life is Good were handled. That might even preclude him from winning the Triple Crown or ever running on the grass.

Btw..does that include his debut?

Isn't that the most obvious one of his "frequent" losses that he should have won considering the amount of traffic & trouble he found himself in?

You do this for a living, right?

And you left out the part where Secretariat spiked a fever following a loss.

Didn't I mention something about him wheeling back in the Marlboro Cup "on the heels of an illness"?

You must hold the horse to a very low standard. Grass works? Casually tossed??? How subjective and forgiving.

Huh? I guess the turf could be characterized as "forgiving" based on its condition the days he worked on it, but it is not a subjective comment to state that Secretariat worked twice on the turf (4f & one mile) in the 2-week period between the Marlboro Cup & the Woodward. That's a fact.

It's also well-documented that Secretariat was entered in the Woodward in place of Riva Ridge when the forecast turned against the mud-hating older horse.

Please have the last word.

Thanks.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think it’s pretty clear by now Olympiad didn’t fire his “A” race in the Whitney and I don’t think Cyberknife’s effort in the BC Mile did anything to diminish an improving Taiba.

Out of curiosity, can you expand on why Olympiad didn't fire in the Whitney?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Out of curiosity, can you expand on why Olympiad didn't fire in the Whitney?

Perhaps he only fires every 4 years .

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Out of curiosity, can you expand on why Olympiad didn't fire in the Whitney?

Writing horses off because they don't fire for whatever reason is a big part of why we are in the spot we are now with top horses. Losses used to be just that, losses. Now they are looked at as an albatross around a horse's neck.

As for that race, who knows? But he returned to beat all three horses that finished ahead of him that day on Saturday. I think it is pretty clear he didn't really show up for the Whitney. Too quick of a return of his fastest race by a good margin? Didn't like an off track, the only one he saw in his career?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

Writing horses off because they don't fire for whatever reason is a big part of why we are in the spot we are now with top horses. Losses used to be just that, losses. Now they are looked at as an albatross around a horse's neck.

As for that race, who knows? But he returned to beat all three horses that finished ahead of him that day on Saturday. I think it is pretty clear he didn't really show up for the Whitney. Too quick of a return of his fastest race by a good margin?

Thanks. I'm not writing him off per se (although I guess he's never running again so in effect I am) & earlier in the year I was hoping he'd emerge as a major racehorse but he appeared to hit a ceiling and IMO neither the JCGC nor the also-ran/no factor/Dynever effort in the Classic explains away that he just happened to randomly fall on his face in his toughest assignment up to that point.

The only excuse I see is that he was run off his feet early trying to keep Life is Good in range the opening quarter. If that's the case then he simply isn't a Grade 1 horse despite beating First Captain a few weeks later in one.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Out of curiosity, can you expand on why Olympiad didn't fire in the Whitney?

He broke a bit behind LIG and HRCharlie, was roused to contend to first turn when LIG opened up, asked to accelerate again rounding latter part of first turn. One can know because his acceleration carried him out entering the backstretch about four more paths and widest, and HR Charlie with only similar speed at best advances past him already early on backstretch. After that 2-3 on final turn, 4 entering stretch.

His different trip in Classic was obvious, even ducking to rail on first turn at the point where he attempted to gain in the Whitney, instead mostly unhurried and not willing to chase LIG/Flightline pace until past midway backstretch.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Out of curiosity, can you expand on why Olympiad didn't fire in the Whitney?

If I could I wouldn't have made a big bet on American Revolution in the JCGC.

Some people said it was very hot that day and he looked uncomfortable in the post parade.

Some people thought he bounced off the Foster.

It was also the only time he's run on an off track.

I didn't buy any of it at the time.

Looking back, I wouldn't take my bet back, but he was so bad that day I think it had to be more than just a rougher trip chasing a very fast horse like LIG while wide. He bounced back nicely, unfortunately, without my money.