After Secretariat's Belmont....

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Hmmm…..

Look at those ridiculous PP lines for Secretariat! Track records on dirt and turf, Triple Crown winner, etc.

As you know, these modern day horses just don't put up the resume like the "old timers".

Made me pull up the records of Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid beyond Secretariat.

Flightline just can't enter that pantheon with such a short resume.

And I'm speaking as someone who would absolutely love to watch Flightline go out in a blaze of glory in the Classic.

[classhandicapper]

I wish I had the full charts for the day Secretariat won the Belmont. I have his PPs and I have the abbreviated results with the Class and Final time of each race that day. So if you wanted, you could see how fast he ran relative to the other races on the same day and how fast the track was. What I'd like to see is how the races were developing that day.

[classhandicapper]

I would be semi shocked and quite impressed if Flightline duplicated his Pacific Classic figure in the BC Classic. Both Timeform and TG appear to have the race even faster than Beyer and I don't think he'll run back to the 126 Beyer.

IMO, the track that day at DMR was carrying speed better than the average track on the average day. On surfaces like that, very fast speed horses sometimes carry their speed to huge final time figures.

We don't know how KEE will be playing in a couple of weeks, but if it's an honest racetrack I'm expecting his form to drop back to something more along the lines of the Met Mile.

That was also an outstanding performance, but chasing LIG, holding off Taiba, Epicenter, and the rest of the quality horses in that field at 10F on an honest track is a bit different than dominating a race chasing Speaker's Corner and holding off Happy Saver at 8F (rough trip or not).

I think this is going to be a much better test of whether he's a true 10F horse and whether he's a very good or great horse.

He's obviously the most likely winner, but I don't think there will good value playing him even if you leave LIG off for 2nd on the assumption he's going to put that one away. Almost everyone that likes him is thinking along those lines. It's probably going to take something more creative than that or taking a shot against him to get real value.

[Brisk Urging]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would be semi shocked and quite impressed if Flightline duplicated his Pacific Classic figure in the BC Classic. Both Timeform and TG appear to have the race even faster than Beyer and I don't think he'll run back to the 126 Beyer.

IMO, the track that day at DMR was carrying speed better than the average track on the average day. On surfaces like that, very fast speed horses sometimes carry their speed to huge final time figures.

We don't know how KEE will be playing in a couple of weeks, but if it's an honest racetrack I'm expecting his form to drop back to something more along the lines of the Met Mile.

That was also an outstanding performance, but chasing LIG, holding off Taiba, Epicenter, and the rest of the quality horses in that field at 10F on an honest track is a bit different than dominating a race chasing Speaker's Corner and holding off Happy Saver at 8F (rough trip or not).

I think this is going to be a much better test of whether he's a true 10F horse and whether he's a very good or great horse.

He's obviously the most likely winner, but I don't think there will good value playing him even if you leave LIG off for 2nd on the assumption he's going to put that one away. Almost everyone that likes him is thinking along those lines. It's probably going to take something more creative than that or taking a shot against him to get real value.

2 tracks in the country that can help horses get the 1 1/4

Keeneland /Gulfstream

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Brisk Urging

2 tracks in the country that can help horses get the 1 1/4

Keeneland /Gulfstream

Del Mar feels like one of those as well.

[Bullet Plane]

The Secretariat Belmont day charts have been posted on this site before. It was a few years ago during a discussion of the AP triple crown bid.

[delayjf]

The Whitney probably wasn't a bounce.

The Woodward was 100% a reaction/bounce.

Not sure which race it was, but I read some place by someone who was there that Secretariat was sick in one of those races. Displayed diarrhea on his way to the walking ring,

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by HorsemenHeist

Agree with Vic, the only way Flightline gets beat is if he gets injured.


The spacing gets mentioned, this race next week will be his first start since September 3, only 63 days after the Pacific Classic. That is by far the least amount of times he will have between starts. Sadler says that the horse needs 30 days to recover before training, can you win the Breeders Cup Classic with such light training, leaving just 33 days to run that next 127 beyer? He will need to bring his A game to a track that he's not that familiar with for a trainer with a 1 for a gazillion Breeders Cup record. The only bets I'd make on the race would be chancing Flightline getting beat. Especially with all the hype Fanduel TV and ABR have put on the horse, there are other fantastic horses in the race.

Flightline was back on the track in 4 days after the PC. And actually had a half mile breeze 21 days after. He has been in steady training since July and hasn't missed a work since then.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The Whitney probably wasn't a bounce.

The Woodward was 100% a reaction/bounce.

No matter how great when the run crazy fast they will react.

Sadler is acutely aware of this as evidenced by the spacing of FLIGHTLINE'S races.

He CAN get beat. They all can get beat.

IMO if FLIGHTLINE loses it's because he's unsound.

He's never been sound. Not many would be running that fast.

Never been sound? He hasn't missed a scheduled work in 4 months. That sounds pretty sound to me. The spacing of his races early on were all "sheets" theory. He did have a 1/4 crack issue that was quickly healed, and a strained hock in early spring that needed to be addressed.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by delayjf

Not sure which race it was, but I read some place by someone who was there that Secretariat was sick in one of those races. Displayed diarrhea on his way to the walking ring,

Bear in mind that one of the products of Secretariat having such a big fan club is that there is a lot of demand for excuses for each of his losses. People like the late William Nack could not accept that their hero might not have fired every time.

The Woodward is the best example of this, because Prove Out ran out of his eyeballs that day and Secretariat may have just been slightly short, or maybe not.

[Brisk Urging]

Per Mike Welsch-

Flightline has never raced or worked on a wet track but if his gallop here this a m is any indication rain on BCup day won’t be an issue. Was full of run getting faster the further he went completing his final 1/4 out near middle of track in 28.55 on a cool and very windy morning

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