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Old 10-04-2022, 07:29 AM   #1
Half Smoke
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overrating of class factor here_____?

__________


in the Eddie D at S.A. Saturday Gregorian Chant was bet down to about 2/1 and Lane Way was let go at about 4/1

before that race Lane Way had only appeared in on G1 event and finished poorly and no G2 events

Gregorian Chant had appeared in 2 G1 events and 3 G2 events

in the last 4 races Lane Way had higher speed figures per Equibase and had run in 3 Alw races whereas Gregorian Chant's last 3 races were all stakes in which he had not been very impressive - although he did get 2nd in a black type thing

Gregorian Chant had not finished well in any of his previous G1 and G2 events

Lane Way finished 2, 2, 1 and 4 in his last 4 races before the Eddie D and 3 of them were only Alw races

I can't see any major difference in the Pace factors but I haven't looked at that very closely



what's your take on this_________?__________thanks



https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB


https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB


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Old 10-04-2022, 10:13 AM   #2
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Not sure I am understanding your question?

I often find class in turf sprints somewhat irrelevant compared to other races. Lane Way is a pretty talented horse sprinting with a good late kick but often doesnt find a clean trip, I would run him back at Kee as that sprint there has produced a couple price results.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:32 AM   #3
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Class doesn't apply as much in the turf sprints I've noticed. Look at a horse like Lieutenant Dan, hadn't run in graded stake on the turf until last year's Green Flash and ended up runner up in the BC turf sprint.

There are so few big money turf sprints anyway, in this case it was notable that Gregorian Chant intended to run in one of them at Kentucky Downs but was rerouted to this much less lucrative spot.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:56 AM   #4
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Class doesn't apply as much in the turf sprints I've noticed. Look at a horse like Lieutenant Dan, hadn't run in graded stake on the turf until last year's Green Flash and ended up runner up in the BC turf sprint.

There are so few big money turf sprints anyway, in this case it was notable that Gregorian Chant intended to run in one of them at Kentucky Downs but was rerouted to this much less lucrative spot.
the reroute is almost always a bet against, or the trainer unsure if they will run and then they run.

Mandella 2 weeks ago said he wasnt sure about running Royal Ship in the race last weekend, he went, ran like trash. Those horses just seem to lose with those statements a lot more than win.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:23 PM   #5
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Seems like it fit the bill that turf handicappers look for in a turf sprint -

- runs turf sprints
- runs on a consistent basis
- seems it's in the same ballpark of class
- kept it around a length back the entire way last time out
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Old 10-05-2022, 10:52 AM   #6
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The gap between ALW and Graded stakes is lower in turf sprints than in many other categories. These turf sprints are a relatively new division in US racing. The very top of the division is not that strong (though it's stronger now than it was even 5 years ago).
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Old 10-05-2022, 12:27 PM   #7
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The gap between ALW and Graded stakes is lower in turf sprints than in many other categories. These turf sprints are a relatively new division in US racing. The very top of the division is not that strong (though it's stronger now than it was even 5 years ago).
I would argue its also a bit like soccer in the US, the best horses are not being pointed to those events but become a fallback.
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Old 10-05-2022, 01:46 PM   #8
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I would argue its also a bit like soccer in the US, the best horses are not being pointed to those events but become a fallback.
Except for Wesley Ward.
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Old 10-05-2022, 02:51 PM   #9
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____________


worth noting also that Lane Way - 4.20/1 - set a track record at S.A. for a 6 furlong turf sprint on 10/3/21

in the money 12 out of 14 times

just seemed well overlayed to me even though a shot nailed him on Sat.


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Old 10-05-2022, 03:29 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Not sure I am understanding your question?

I often find class in turf sprints somewhat irrelevant...
"Class" and "turf sprints" are mutually exclusive terms.
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Old 10-05-2022, 03:55 PM   #11
Half Smoke
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"Class" and "turf sprints" are mutually exclusive terms.

so, then, would it be fair to say that the following results in your opinion are just due to a random thing

Gregorian Chant won 4 out of 8 alw races

here are his finishes in graded stakes events:


3
7
4
3
7
1
11
5



meaningless__________?



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Old 10-05-2022, 03:58 PM   #12
GMB@BP
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so, then, would it be fair to say that the following results in your opinion are just due to a random thing

Gregorian Chant won 4 out of 8 alw races

here are his finishes in graded stakes events:


3
7
4
3
7
1
11
5



meaningless__________?



.
yes,

he could go in a nw1x next week and lose and no one would be surprised.

i dont think the same of a dirt horse. Even the record you put up there shows how much variance there is on grass races.
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Old 10-06-2022, 01:01 AM   #13
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If anyone can handicap the 4th at Kee fri, turf sprint, on Friday then turf sprints are your cup of tea, I narrowed it down to 8.
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