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05-06-2022, 02:16 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Do we know each other? I used to bet 3-5 shots at Fairmount back in the 1980's and anytime someone said "this horse is the value/overlay" I always said "only if he wins." It was my favorite line that I said thousands of times.  |
Maybe. If your name is Craig, we "in the gang" used to refer to you as "College Craig", as opposed to another guy named Craig who had a very nice-looking redheaded wife. Joe, Spence, Herbie, Les, Mike, Daryl were some of the other guys I hung around with....this was 1985-1989. There was a guy who worked for the post office who would only bet to show. He'd called his winning picks "Monsters!" . Hah. Another guy was "$20 Gimmick Gary", who I think worked at Chrysler, and would bet a $20 straight ticket on the gimmick bet for the race. Back then FP only had one gimmick per race, and none in the 9th IIRC. He would every so often in the 5th and 10th play two $10 straight tris instead. He said that approach helped him "maintain control."
If you are "The Kid", please no lawsuits. I did attribute the Law of Overlays to you....
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05-06-2022, 08:03 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Maybe. If your name is Craig, we "in the gang" used to refer to you as "College Craig", as opposed to another guy named Craig who had a very nice-looking redheaded wife. Joe, Spence, Herbie, Les, Mike, Daryl were some of the other guys I hung around with....this was 1985-1989. There was a guy who worked for the post office who would only bet to show. He'd called his winning picks "Monsters!" . Hah. Another guy was "$20 Gimmick Gary", who I think worked at Chrysler, and would bet a $20 straight ticket on the gimmick bet for the race. Back then FP only had one gimmick per race, and none in the 9th IIRC. He would every so often in the 5th and 10th play two $10 straight tris instead. He said that approach helped him "maintain control."
If you are "The Kid", please no lawsuits. I did attribute the Law of Overlays to you.... |
Oh my God!!! Yes, I am college Craig.  I recall all of those names you listed. Okay, you have to tell me who you are, either here or send me a private message. If you don't I will go crazy trying to figure it out. 
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
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05-06-2022, 09:52 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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At this price if you don't bet Taiba it's pretty damning regarding odds analysis. Whether or not you think he will win, the odds are certainly much, much higher than 7.7%
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05-06-2022, 11:28 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Oh my God!!! Yes, I am college Craig. I recall all of those names you listed. Okay, you have to tell me who you are, either here or send me a private message. If you don't I will go crazy trying to figure it out. |
Small world. I'll PM you with my "need to know" details.
BTW - I like your take on the odds. With all the chatter about this Taiba, he's the "wise guy" horse of the Derby, and may go off the chalk....
The other "hot" horse is of course Crown Pride, or as I'm sure we would have called him back at FP, "Top Pig". More for the fans, the dancing horse could surprise, but I won't bet him.
I'm pretty confused on this Derby, and will be letting the tote help me more than usual. With getting those OVERlays of course.
Oh - forgot to mention Rich, our bookie, and Isaac, the craziest NBA bettor I've ever met. Isaac used to drive up on weekends from that army base down in SW Missouri, and got around to asking us if we knew anyone who took bets. We introduced him to Rich, thinking he'd be a regular fan - but no. His second day of playing, he called Rich and placed bets on the sides and totals, 15 bets, for the eight games that day. Rich asked him why he was reluctant to play the Warriors total. Isaac said, "Okay, give me a half on the over!"
What a nut.
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05-06-2022, 12:20 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,955
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Early odds on Taiba 5-1. Mo in the 1 hole, 7-1. Epicenter 9/2, and chalk. Messier 7-1 (my top pick), Zandon 8-1. Everybody else double digit odds on up.
It should shake out pretty well by the end of the day, but Mattress Man could remove all value on the chalk when he bellies up to the Window.
Was hoping for higher odds on  , thinking in terms of value. As is often the case in life, might have to rethink that.
Last edited by Parkview_Pirate; 05-06-2022 at 12:21 PM.
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05-06-2022, 01:22 PM
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#51
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Early odds on Taiba 5-1. Mo in the 1 hole, 7-1. Epicenter 9/2, and chalk. Messier 7-1 (my top pick), Zandon 8-1. Everybody else double digit odds on up.
It should shake out pretty well by the end of the day, but Mattress Man could remove all value on the chalk when he bellies up to the Window.
Was hoping for higher odds on , thinking in terms of value. As is often the case in life, might have to rethink that. |
Mattress Man might put it all on the nose of Smile Happy - I think he used to own the site Runhappy.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-06-2022, 02:06 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
Mattress Man might put it all on the nose of Smile Happy - I think he used to own the site Runhappy.
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smile happy and a couple of others 2nd tier figure to have depressed odds being right outside the favs. big ML odds actually hurt these horses.
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05-06-2022, 05:08 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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seems like the betters are getting it right for the most part.
in the oak /derby doubles the low payouts are with the 3-6-10-12 with the 1 close behind.
nothing is really amiss here. except tha white abarrio is almost on equal terms with charge it several 2nd tier horses. most is what you would expect.
Last edited by boys at tosconova; 05-06-2022 at 05:16 PM.
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05-06-2022, 06:35 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: America
Posts: 6,955
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Is Taiba really an Ex-Baffert horse, or after the Derby Baffert continues to train the horse?
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05-06-2022, 07:20 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Hope Taiba takes a ton of money. Either everything we know about derby handicapping is a lie or the points system is a complete failure if this horse wins.
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05-06-2022, 07:29 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Hope Taiba takes a ton of money. Either everything we know about derby handicapping is a lie or the points system is a complete failure if this horse wins.
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It isn't a point system problem.
It is a decades long breeding problem and racing problem. This is the end result.
Justify should have never won, much less a Triple Crown. Why shouldn't Taiba break through with a new "never has been done" before Derby win?
Every Derby nowadays breaks another "rule".
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05-06-2022, 07:35 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
It isn't a point system problem.
It is a decades long breeding problem and racing problem. This is the end result.
Justify should have never won, much less a Triple Crown. Why shouldn't Taiba break through with a new "never has been done" before Derby win?
Every Derby nowadays breaks another "rule".
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I just think Justify was truly a special horse. This feat would be almost greater than Justify's.
Id change the points system, but something tells me this horse will hopefully be nowhere to be found come the end of the race.
But you can change the point system so that horses have to race.
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05-06-2022, 07:54 PM
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#58
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Hope Taiba takes a ton of money. Either everything we know about derby handicapping is a lie or the points system is a complete failure if this horse wins.
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he looks like he is ready to run a big one to me……after watching his last workout I think he is ready to go.
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05-06-2022, 08:59 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Hope Taiba takes a ton of money. Either everything we know about derby handicapping is a lie or the points system is a complete failure if this horse wins.
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lay off the ripple
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05-06-2022, 09:50 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Near Lexington, KY
Posts: 3,246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
lay off the ripple
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__________________
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