Handicap The Late Money

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Tom

Don't your knuckles hurt when you pound your chest so long?

Not really, but I will admit that it’s been quite a while since the early 70’s. Although I didn’t make as much then, I would argue that it was the best overall decade for horse racing that players and enthusiasts ever experienced.

Why would I even bother to do that? There are much better ways to enjoy and share success.

I’m sorry to hear that you have that sentiment. Apparently, you’d rather hang out and sympathize with those who are chronic complainers who share nothing but negativity around here. It’s sort of telling as to how much success they’re having too. But when it comes to the challenges presented by this game it’s no surprise since the overwhelming majority of players are having difficulties.

BTW that’s one of the reasons why I enjoy sharing a lot of positive information related to HK racing. In spite of that, I also realize that many players have that “I’ll do it my way” attitude and heaven forbid humble themselves to use someone else’s selections. But if my success continues to bother those who can’t even structure a bet on their own, then perhaps after 5 years it time to curtail the HK information altogether.
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[jameegray1]

It's pretty easy to accurately estimate the final payoffs. Race 5 at Woodbine below, due off in 9 mins.

First the latest displayed track odds, second my estimated final odds
1) 5 2
2) 3 7
3) 6 20
4) 5 5
5) 6 18
6) 5 6
7) 20 25
8) 5 3

[jameegray1]

Originally Posted by jameegray1

It's pretty easy to accurately estimate the final payoffs. Race 5 at Woodbine below, due off in 9 mins.

First the latest displayed track odds, second my estimated final odds
1) 5 2
2) 3 7
3) 6 20
4) 5 5
5) 6 18
6) 5 6
7) 20 25
8) 5 3

Final odds added below. Not bad!

1) 5 2 5/2
2) 3 7 7
3) 6 20 10
4) 5 5 7/2
5) 6 18 10
6) 5 6 4
7) 20 25 24
8) 5 3 9/2

[jameegray1]

Here's the 1st at Delta downs. 6 mtp.
1 13 16
2 9 4
4 2 5/2
5 3 5/2
6 7/5 3
8 20 28

*NOTE*
Late scratches in this race so forget it.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Not really, but I will admit that it’s been quite a while since the early 70’s. Although I didn’t make as much then, I would argue that it was the best overall decade for horse racing that players and enthusiasts ever experienced.

Why would I even bother to do that? There are much better ways to enjoy and share success.

I’m sorry to hear that you have that sentiment. Apparently, you’d rather hang out and sympathize with those who are chronic complainers who share nothing but negativity around here. It’s sort of telling as to how much success they’re having too. But when it comes to the challenges presented by this game it’s no surprise since the overwhelming majority of players are having difficulties.

BTW that’s one of the reasons why I enjoy sharing a lot of positive information related to HK racing. In spite of that, I also realize that many players have that “I’ll do it my way” attitude and heaven forbid humble themselves to use someone else’s selections. But if my success continues to bother those who can’t even structure a bet on their own, then perhaps after 5 years it time to curtail the HK information altogether.
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I have no problem with your HK wagers Nitro.
Just need an "investment" per race tally.

As a big whale like yourself that is wagering at least $1k per race, you could at least let us small minds know of your $s wagered and how you make such great profits.

Big races this weekend right. No way an incredible system and lucid mind like yourself could lose.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I have no problem with your HK wagers Nitro.
Just need an "investment" per race tally.

As a big whale like yourself that is wagering at least $1k per race, you could at least let us small minds know of your $s wagered and how you make such great profits

Big races this weekend right. No way an incredible system and lucid mind like yourself could lose.

Apparently you do have a problem and it’s about comprehension because my wagers for HK are never posted. (Perhaps you missed post #58 – hint read toward the bottom)

If your mind can’t register the value of the potential results of what I’ve been posting, your problem is bigger than you might think, because it involves a conflict between your personal envy regarding the HK selections posted and the results of those posts. Take it for whatever its worth, but unlike yourself, I don’t have any intention of losing.

So why not do something different this weekend and satisfy your obvious curiosity and stay up during wee hours of Sunday morning. First race post time is Sat 11:15 PM and last race post time is Sun 4:00 AM EST. Unfortunately, this Sunday’s card may not be as lucrative as last weekend because the majority of the races offer lower class animals. But I’ve dealt with that scenario before, and my "lucid mind" should be able to handle it.
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[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Apparently you do have a problem and it’s about comprehension because my wagers for HK are never posted. (Perhaps you missed post #58 – hint read toward the bottom)

If your mind can’t register the value of the potential results of what I’ve been posting, your problem is bigger than you might think, because it involves a conflict between your personal envy regarding the HK selections posted and the results of those posts. Take it for whatever its worth, but unlike yourself, I don’t have any intention of losing.

So why not do something different this weekend and satisfy your obvious curiosity and stay up during wee hours of Sunday morning. First race post time is Sat 11:15 PM and last race post time is Sun 4:00 AM EST. Unfortunately, this Sunday’s card may not be as lucrative as last weekend because the majority of the races offer lower class animals. But I’ve dealt with that scenario before, and my "lucid mind" should be able to handle it.
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I stay up during the wee hours on an everyday basis...and I try to follow along on your HK adventure. I can't say that I know what you are doing...but I find it interesting nonetheless. And I'd like to see you continue your reportage on your foreign escapade...regardless of whether I can tell if you are winning or not. As far as I am concerned...your financial affairs are none of my business.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Apparently you do have a problem and it’s about comprehension because my wagers for HK are never posted. (Perhaps you missed post #58 – hint read toward the bottom)

If your mind can’t register the value of the potential results of what I’ve been posting, your problem is bigger than you might think, because it involves a conflict between your personal envy regarding the HK selections posted and the results of those posts. Take it for whatever its worth, but unlike yourself, I don’t have any intention of losing.

So why not do something different this weekend and satisfy your obvious curiosity and stay up during wee hours of Sunday morning. First race post time is Sat 11:15 PM and last race post time is Sun 4:00 AM EST. Unfortunately, this Sunday’s card may not be as lucrative as last weekend because the majority of the races offer lower class animals. But I’ve dealt with that scenario before, and my "lucid mind" should be able to handle it.
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Sounds like a plan.


I say we make it a Main Board event and track wagers.

[AltonKelsey]

Theoretically , what nitro claims he does can be done.



Thing is, what has he actually taught anyone ?


Very little, even if you assume his 6 horse out of 14 numbers mean anything.



What has anyone learned ?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I stay up during the wee hours on an everyday basis...and I try to follow along on your HK adventure. I can't say that I know what you are doing...but I find it interesting nonetheless. And I'd like to see you continue your reportage on your foreign escapade...regardless of whether I can tell if you are winning or not. As far as I am concerned...your financial affairs are none of my business.

Very well stated!
It can sometimes become very frustrating trying to get valid points across. I personally find it very curious as to how some people (like yourself) know exactly to rationalize the objective of comments made while others just don’t get it at all.

I assume that this sort of mentality can also be correlated with how people interpret the data they’re using in an attempt to uncover hidden gems among the entries on a typical race card.

Be it early money or late there are ways to distinguish solid insider betting versus the general crowd. It involves understanding the combination of the money being bet, its flow into all of the viewable betting pools together and then the disparities among them (the pools) during a typical betting cycle. The betting side of this game is based entirely on human psychology.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Very well stated!
It can sometimes become very frustrating trying to get valid points across. I personally find it very curious as to how some people (like yourself) know exactly to rationalize the objective of comments made while others just don’t get it at all.

I assume that this sort of mentality can also be correlated with how people interpret the data they’re using in an attempt to uncover hidden gems among the entries on a typical race card.

Be it early money or late there are ways to distinguish solid insider betting versus the general crowd. It involves understanding the combination of the money being bet, its flow into all of the viewable betting pools together and then the disparities among them (the pools) during a typical betting cycle. The betting side of this game is based entirely on human psychology.

I am not nearly as fanatical about the betting action as you seem to be...but even I notice cases where the flow of money flatly contradicts what the past performance data seem to indicate. And painful experience has taught me that this conspicuous contradiction of handicapping "logic" can be ignored only to the financial detriment of the studious bettor. This is indeed an "insiders' game"...and the value-seeking bettor walks a fine line between "real value" and 'fool's gold', when he assesses his wagering opportunities. The pursuit of "value" in this game isn't as clear-cut as we sometimes make it out to be.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Theoretically , what nitro claims he does can be done.



Thing is, what has he actually taught anyone ?


Very little, even if you assume his 6 horse out of 14 numbers mean anything.



What has anyone learned ?

Forgot something here. Have a opinion. And bet it. If you have not learned from this forum, you are slow. The "slow" comment is not directed at you. So join in and post your opinion, educate us.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am not nearly as fanatical about the betting action as you seem to be...but even I notice cases where the flow of money flatly contradicts what the past performance data seem to indicate. And painful experience has taught me that this conspicuous contradiction of handicapping "logic" can be ignored only to the financial detriment of the studious bettor. This is indeed an "insiders' game"...and the value-seeking bettor walks a fine line between "real value" and 'fool's gold', when he assesses his wagering opportunities. The pursuit of "value" in this game isn't as clear-cut as we sometimes make it out to be.

Hard learned lesson. If you think your horse looks 10-1 on paper, is 10-1, but you think should be 4-1, bet away. If you think your horse looks 4-1 on paper, should be 4-1, goes off 10-1...RUN!!!

[pandy]

I don't like certain types of bet downs. Let's say that a track has a good or even decent morning line maker and a horse is 12-1 on the morning line and goes off at 3-1. Generally speaking, it's a bad bet over the long run. Sure, occasionally it's smart money and the horse wins, but overall, it's an underlay.

Let's put it this way, horses that are 3-1 on the morning line and go off at 3-1, are better bets over the long run than horses that are 6-1 or higher on the morning line and go off at 3-1.

I have no stats to prove this but when I do testing, this is what I've noticed. My theory on this is simple. If a horse is, say, 10-1 on the morning line, the handicapper who made the line obviously didn't think the horse had a strong chance of winning. If the horse goes off as the favorite at 2-1 odds, you're essentially betting on a 2-1 shot that doesn't look good on paper, which doesn't make sense. If you're betting a 2-1 shot that is 2-1 on the morning line, the horse looks good on paper, has a better chance of winning, and will return a higher ROI in the long run because it will win more often than the bet down horses.

Bet downs make more sense when there's a mystery around the horse, like if a horse is a first or second time starter, so there's not much history there, or a horse that ships in from Europe, something like that.

[cj]

Most morning lines away from a few of the top circuits stink and I don't use them at all to determine if a horse is being bet down or is cold on the board. I trust experience of knowing what a horse should be within reason based on his PPs.