Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Yep.

After their common debut, Sadler decided to take the hard road with Accelerate, running him in 3 more maiden special weights before shooting for the moon in a listed stakes at Del Mar the same weekend Arrogate won the Travers in a track record performance.

Nice changing of the subject, Spalding.

Again, I say. Do you know what Accelerate's record was against Arrogate?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Nice changing of the subject, Spalding.

Again, I say. Do you know what Accelerate's record was against Arrogate?

What part of "yep" wasn't clear?

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you suggesting Accelerate was already amid the top ranked handicap horses in 2017?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

What part of "yep" wasn't clear?

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you suggesting Accelerate was already amid the top ranked handicap horses in 2017?

He's trying to distract you from the stupidity of Burnsy's post.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He's trying to distract you from the stupidity of Burnsy's post.

I presume that Burnsy's point was that rather than Joe Blow winning the batting title going 8 for 10, Arnie Smith was more deserved for going 9 for 12.

This makes more sense to me than the whole Arrogate-Accelerate thing.

Did we miss out on some spectacular rivalry in 1989 between Lorenzoni and Caro Lover because we were too caught up with Sunday Silence and Easy Goer?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Did we miss out on some spectacular rivalry in 1989 between Lorenzoni and Caro Lover because we were too caught up with Sunday Silence and Easy Goer?

Now THAT'S some good stuff.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

What part of "yep" wasn't clear?

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you suggesting Accelerate was already amid the top ranked handicap horses in 2017?

No, I am saying that you probably shouldn't have argued that Accelerate didn't get good until a list of horses left the scene and then listed Arrogate among those horses.

In fact, what happened there was that Arrogate was a total flash in the pan and Accelerate was a nice demonstration of that as he managed to finish ahead of him twice.

Arrogate is actually something like Justify. Both of them were 4 stakes wonders.

(EDIT: Also, it is worth remembering at all times that while Justify did win 6 races, two of them were a MSW and a NW2, presumably against the awful horses that typically populate the ranks of Santa Anita also-rans in such contests. So the relevant comparison is 7 wins vs. 4, not 7 vs. 6.)

[the little guy]

It has to be an act.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

No, I am saying that you probably shouldn't have argued that Accelerate didn't get good until a list of horses left the scene and then listed Arrogate among those horses.

It's arguable, despite continuing to enter major stakes, that Arrogate "fell by the wayside" sometime mid-2017. And even then, how do you account for the fact that Arrogate reversed form on Accelerate (to the tune of 20 lengths or so) less than a month later?

Arrogate's whimper of a career ending aside, Accelerate went bust himself by years end, getting thrashed in the BC Dirt Mile (9th) and throttled by Giant Expectations in the San Antonio.

In fact, what happened there was that Arrogate was a total flash in the pan and Accelerate was a nice demonstration of that as he managed to finish ahead of him twice.

Arrogate was good for about one year and 10 starts. That's about average for any Unbridled's Song offspring which are invariably beset by soundness problems.

(EDIT: Also, it is worth remembering at all times that while Justify did win 6 races, two of them were a MSW and a NW2, presumably against the awful horses that typically populate the ranks of Santa Anita also-rans in such contests. So the relevant comparison is 7 wins vs. 4, not 7 vs. 6.)

How about the awful horses that typically populate the ranks of Santa Anita stakes races for older horses? More like 3 wins (Gold Cup, Awesome Again, BC Classic) vs. 4.

Oh, and Accelerate didn't win 7 races in 2018...

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

How does 6 starts compare with other horses who have won the award the past decade?

Well, how about ... in the 2000's ??


Ghostzapper ran all of 4 times in 2004, a couple of those being 4-horse fields.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Well, how about ... in the 2000's ??


Ghostzapper ran all of 4 times in 2004, a couple of those being 4-horse fields.

It is worth noting that Ghostzapper, while a deserving HOTY (he beat older horses in very fast time in the BC Classic), did get criticism for his infrequent races at the time.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

It has to be an act.

I love how people think snark on the Internet makes them look smart.

Andy's a smart guy, but this sort of thing makes him look less intelligent, not more.

If you actually have an argument, you say it. You don't just insult people without stating your argument. 6 year olds insult people without stating an argument-- because they DON'T have intelligent things to say.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

It's arguable, despite continuing to enter major stakes, that Arrogate "fell by the wayside" sometime mid-2017. And even then, how do you account for the fact that Arrogate reversed form on Accelerate (to the tune of 20 lengths or so) less than a month later?

Arrogate's whimper of a career ending aside, Accelerate went bust himself by years end, getting thrashed in the BC Dirt Mile (9th) and throttled by Giant Expectations in the San Antonio.


Arrogate was good for about one year and 10 starts. That's about average for any Unbridled's Song offspring which are invariably beset by soundness problems.


How about the awful horses that typically populate the ranks of Santa Anita stakes races for older horses? More like 3 wins (Gold Cup, Awesome Again, BC Classic) vs. 4.

Oh, and Accelerate didn't win 7 races in 2018...

Arrogate was not good for one year and 10 starts.

He was OK before the Travers. Basically an allowance horse. He then rattled off 4 incredibly good races. After that, if you want to give him one more good race (his Pacific Classic defeat was a defensible race), that's fine. At best, you can say he was a good horse for 5 starts.

But to even get there, you have to dismiss your own position. Because Arrogate's Pacific Classic and San Diego losses were to exactly the sorts of horses in the Southern California handicap ranks that you contend are bums.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Arrogate was not good for one year and 10 starts.

He was OK before the Travers. Basically an allowance horse. He then rattled off 4 incredibly good races. After that, if you want to give him one more good race (his Pacific Classic defeat was a defensible race), that's fine. At best, you can say he was a good horse for 5 starts.

My statement was poorly written. What I meant was that Unbridled's Song horses typically last for about 10 races career-wise. I agree, he was not at his best for at least the last 3.

However, I'm not going to call him an "allowance" horse through the spring and summer simply because Baffert was able to run him through his conditions. Certainly his Beyer Speed Figures put him at a high level (for the 3yo class at any rate). Meanwhile, Accelerate was still a maiden during that time frame.

But to even get there, you have to dismiss your own position. Because Arrogate's Pacific Classic and San Diego losses were to exactly the sorts of horses in the Southern California handicap ranks that you contend are bums.

Collected was solid for most of 2017 (though he quickly fell apart by year's end and beyond). In fact, he buried Accelerate in the Precisionist early in the year. Nevertheless, Arrogate should have been able to handle him at 10 furlongs.

By virtue of that Pacific Classic score, Collected became I believe the only City Zip horse to win at 10 furlongs on the main track, giving hope to all the Improbable backers this weekend.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure how Arrogate got dragged into this discussion, but it's pretty obvious to me he was one of small group of horses I've seen over 40+ years that performed at a borderline great level for a short period of time and then tailed off to be more of an ordinary Grade 1 horse.

I'm not sure how you want to value that historically. People argue about peak vs. longevity all the time in sports. But his period of excellence was certainly worthy of his HOTY - as was Justify's campaign and Accelerate's in any other year than one with a Triple Crown winner.

We aren't going to see campaigns of 8-10 races anymore when horses are running every 6-8 weeks (unless Lukas gets a good one).

Also, all these horses were better or worse at various points in their careers and even during their best year. What's the point?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Also, all these horses were better or worse at various points in their careers and even during their best year. What's the point?

My point was that Accelerate suddenly reached the upper echelon when the there was no one left in the older horse division.

Arrogate got pulled in because his "peak" period was bookended by defeats at the hands of Accelerate (and several others). Presumably that meant that Accelerate was never far behind (or not behind at all) Arrogate in terms of ability.