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Old 05-03-2013, 02:20 AM   #1
thearmada
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 98
KY Oaks Day

Kentucky Oaks Day 2013

I did this last year. Decided to do it this year. So here we go.

I have broken down into A, B, C, ?, and X rating categories.
A horses are the ones I feel have the best chance to win and/or have great value for their ability. I give them a 50% chance to win.
B horses are those I feel that have a chance to win, but I don’t like them for one or more of these reasons. They are an underlay, do not have the talent to beat the best runner in the field, or there is a “flag” in their prior races. They have a 25% chance to win in my opinion.
C horses have a chance to finish in the money. They usually have higher prices. They would need to run the best races of their life to win against the field they are facing. I would expect these horses to win 15% of the time.
? horses are the ones that have a chance, but the lack of experience racing and/or experience on the surface they are running. I give them a 10% chance to win.
X horses are the ones I feel do not have a decent chance to win. They are unmatched to the field or the surface/distance does not suit them.
The notes for all of the horses and the bets assume a FAST dirt and a FIRM turf. The notes for each horse go like shown below.

Program # ) Name – Rating - Notes

Race 6 – La Troienne G2 – 1 1/16 Dirt
1) Imposing Grace – X – While she has shown potential losing to BYCx2, I feel she is unmatched for the field. ML odds of 10/1 are too low for her.
2) Authenticity – C – Ran well last two times out. Good speed figures. Has the ability to close or stalk. Decent contender, but only tried in graded stakes once.
3) More Chocolate – A– Has ran two huge races at SA recently. She should definitely be in the money. Good value at ML odds of 5/1.
4) Believe You Can – A – She has ran huge at CD before and killed it at the FG this winter. Short odds are her enemy.
5) On Fire Baby – A – Ran a good race last time out. She did hit the favorite around the turn in addition to Grace Hall injuring her leg. She might be getting older with age. Has won at CD before.
6) Class Included – X – I think she is outclassed here.
7) Draw It – X – Slow, but has run decently in the past.
Bets
$1 Tri Box 3,4,5 ($6)
$5 Exacta 3,4,5 ($30)
$.50 Tri 3,4,5 with 2,3,4,5 with 2,3,4,5 ($9)

Race 7 – Edgewood S. – 1 1/16 Turf
1) Street of Gold – X – Too inconsistent. Hasn’t shown affinity for any surface.
2) Broken Spell – X – Nothing about her jumps out to me on paper. ML too low at 15/1.
3) Kitten’s Dumplings – C – She seems like an underlay. Hasn’t done enough to justify 4/1.
4) Judy In Disguise – B – Great value at 10/1. Will likely be lower. Untried routing.
5) Birdlover – A – Seems to always run well on the turf. Very dangerous on the lead. Good speed figures.
6) Private Ensign – X – Lack of turf racing and bad try on poly last time do not look good here at ML of 8/1.
7) Emotional Kitten – C – Last race was her best one. She can rate or close. Could be good value if she drifts higher than 15/1.
8) Praia – X - Her last and only on turf yielded her lowest speed figure. Seems outclassed.
9) Tokyo Time – B – Good effort last time at GP. She can defitinely run on the grass. Odds will probably be slightly lower than I would like.
10) Wave Theory – A – In her last race, outside of the winner that won by 9 lengths, she was right in the mix on her first poly try. She has shown good form on turf.
11) Adriani – B – I expect good odds. She has always been there in her turf tries. Could run a good one.
Bets
$4 Exacta Box 5,10 ($8)
$1 Exacta Box 4,5,9,10,11 ($20)

Race 8 – Eight Belles G3 – 7F Dirt
1) Chortle – B – If she gets 20/1 or higher she will have great value. Has really been a monster in 2013. Killed it last time out at KEE. Ran well on a slow HAW track this winter.
2) Fusaichiswonderful – A – Only loss is to Kauai Katie. She has always ran well. Was a freak when she ran in Puerto Rico. Good showing last time out.
3) Blueeyesintherein – B – Undefeated coming into this race. Good ML at 8/1. If it stays around there I see her having value.
4) Sittin At the Bar – X - LA bred that has run well in some state-bred races and the Delta Princess. I don’t see her being too much of a threat.
5) Renee’s Titan – X – Has beaten Beholder, but it was in her worst race. Odds will probably be higher than I like. Bad speed figures here.
6) Neith – X – Outclassed.
7) Spring Venture – ? – Either runs well or gets killed. Which one will show up tomorrow? Didn’t like dirt her first time on it.
8) Gold Medal Dancer – B – Has shown potential. Can rate or close. I really like her if her odds stay where they are.
9) So Many Ways – C – Had a great 2YO year. Hasn’t seemed to progress much since then. She could break out here.
10) Irish Lute – C – Always has a solid showing. If the odds are right, a WPS wager might be in worth it.
11) Dancinginthecircle – B – Has always performed well at sprint distances. Held decent form over the winter. Kind of the wild card in this race.
12) Touch Magic – A - Can run near the lead or close. She has shown that she can contend after long layoffs. Great value.
13) Guadalupe High – ? – Has ran well decently down at DED, but it is DED. It is hard to tell how good this filly is. One trip to CD did not bode well for her.
14) Calistoga – A- Gets hurt by the wide draw being a speed horse. She has run the best figures and has been training well. She will be hard to beat.
Bets
$10 WP 2 ($20)
$10 Exacta Box 2,12,14 ($60)
$.50 Tri 2,12,14 with 1,2,3,8,11,12,14 with 1,2,3,8,11,12,14 ($45)

Race 9 – Alysheba G3 – 1 1/16 Dirt
1) Patrioticandproud – X – Did not like dirt last time on it. Much more of a turf/poly horse.
2) Laugh Track – ? – Never has run on dirt. Has been running like a monster recently.
3) Right To Vote – X – I feel like he will do well here. His speed has died the last two times at 6F with fast fractions. Even if he can slow it down I think he will be caught.
4) Hymn Book – B – Ran huge figures last year. Definitely is a contender, but I don’t like the ML of 3/1.
5) Richards Kid – C – He runs in everything, but doesn’t seem to win. He can hit the board though. I think he might be feeling being old.
6) Take Charge Indy – A – Has had some tough races. He seems to have the most class here. I think he has a great chance to win.
7) Macho Macho – B – Has great potential to come in the money. He has lost to some great horses recently. Has been fast in those losses.
8) Bourbon Courage – A – He has lost to some great horses recently. With them not here, I think he has a good chance.
9) Cyber Secret – A – Was an absolute monster at OP this winter. If he can replicate that form he will be in the money.
Bets
$2 Trifecta Box 6,8,9 ($12)
$5 Exacta Box 6,8,9 ($30)

Race 10 – American Turf G2 – 1 1/16 Turf
1) Anyriderill Do – C - Good speed figures on his last two turf tries. Is definitely a contender. I think he will good be good value in exotics.
2) Bashaar – ? – No turf racing and his first three races make me hesitant.
3) Channel Isle – X – He hasn’t done enough to make him a contender in my eyes.
4) Noble Tune – A – Ran well last year in the BCJT. Always has been there in his turf races. He will be hard to beat.
5) War Dancer – A – I love that he can rate and close. He will definitely be used in all of my bets.
6) Positively – C – Has shown some turf ability. If there is a fast pace, he might get up in the money.
7) I’ll Call – X – Didn’t show enough in his debut.
8) Tenforthemoney – X – Very much outclassed here.
9) Admiral Kitten – X – Only positive on paper is his last race out.
10) Fire Guard – C – Has the run good/bad pattern. Looks like running good is up next. Even though he got 9th last time out, he still had a decent speed figure. Should be a test for him.
11) Joelito – X – 12/1 is too high for a horse whose only maiden win on the SA grass shipping in here.
12) Redwood Kitten – A – He always runs well and the price could be right for this IL bred.
13) Prado Cat – X – Hasn’t shown enough to make the high odds worth it.
Bets
$50 Win 4 ($50)
$5 Exacta Box 4,5,12 ($30)
$2 Trifecta Box 4,5,12 ($12)

Race 11 – Kentucky Oaks G1 – 1 1/8 Turf
1) Silsita – X – Way too slow for this field.
2) Midnight Lucky – B – She is very much untested, but has shown some great talent. I like her a lot here. This will be a big test for her.
3) Beholder – A- She has run well. Very fast as a 2YO. Will be a shorter price than I would like.
4) Unlimited Budget – B – Has ran huge figures recently. She has potential to do well.
5) Seaneen Girl – X – She has run well at CD, but she doesn’t seem fast enough.
6) Princess of Sylmar – C – She has run decent at the distance. I don’t know if she will have the speed to beat this group.
7) Pure Fun – ? - She loved CD last time she was here. Ran decently against the boys in the Lexington. Very much up in the air. Not sure if she can beat DOJ.
8) Dreaming of Julia – A+ - She is an absolute monster. Ran faster than the boys on the FL Derby Day while getting a hand ride. She should be almost impossible to beat. If she is at 3/1, she is worth it for the win bet.
9) Rose to Gold – C - Ran well at OP. I’m not sure if she is good enough to beat DOJ.
10) Flashy Gray – SCRATCHED – She would have been nice in exotics.
11) Close Hatches – B - I like her a lot here. She should have good price for exotics.
Bets
$50 Win 8 if above 2/1 ($50)
$20 Exacta 8 with 2,3,4,11 ($80)
$5 Exacta 2,3,4,11 with 8 ($20)
$5 Trifecta 8 with 2,3,4,11 with 2,3,4,11 ($60)

Total wagered = $542

Any feedback is appreciated.
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