Life is Good in the Woodward

[classhandicapper]

I didn’t hate LIG’s race. IMO it’s fairly likely that if he was asked for more early the winning margin would have been larger and final time faster. But IMO, the last thing you want to do with Life Is Good is dull his speed a bit. That happens sometimes off faces like this. His main chance other than a ridiculously biased track is to outrun Flightline, bottom out all the weaker horses, and then hope Flightline is not as good at 10F on an honest track when chasing a faster horse. I would have rather seen him torch this field and be eased late. We know a lot of trainers don’t want to fully crank their horse in the race prior to a BC race. They’d rather something easy, but IMO this was too soft. He ran for about 1/4 mile.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Mott should run Speaker's Corner (2nd in the important 9f Discovery last year) with Olympiad & I'm pretty sure Baffert is auditioning potential rabbits for Country Grammer in the Awesome Again.

I thought the Pat O’Brien looked like a very solid race. Today’s results supported that. Speaker’s Corner didn’t exactly get the best trip today, but he didn’t have much in the tank late either. I expected him to run better out of that race even though he lost as the favorite that day.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I didn’t hate LIG’s race. IMO it’s fairly likely that if he was asked for more early the winning margin would have been larger and final time faster. But IMO, the last thing you want to do with Life Is Good is dull his speed a bit. That happens sometimes off faces like this. His main chance other than a ridiculously biased track is to outrun Flightline, bottom out all the weaker horses, and then hope Flightline is not as good at 10F on an honest track when chasing a faster horse. I would have rather seen him torch this field and be eased late. We know a lot of trainers don’t want to fully crank their horse in the race prior to a BC race. They’d rather something easy, but IMO this was too soft. He ran for about 1/4 mile.

I laughed

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I laughed

At what?

In questioning prior to the race when asked what he wanted out of the race Pletcher said “Irad knows what the main objective is”. He was saying exactly what he should be saying. The idea was not to impress handicappers yesterday. The idea was to have an easy race and peak for the Classic instead of the Woodward.

I’m not making an argument for him in the Classic. I think 10F is going to be problematical for him with Flightline chasing him. I’ve been making the case that Flightline’s big figure and romp at 10F in the Pacific Classic might have been bias aided. I think the gap between him and the others is more along the lines of the Met and his prior race than the Pacific Classic. If I’m right about that and Life Is Good is sharp enough to take a little starch out of him at 10F on an honest track, a couple of the 3yos may be within striking range to beat him with another step forward.

So from my perspective, as someone thinking of taking a shot against the monster favorite, I would have preferred seeing LIG cut a quick pace and torch the field, not gallop around the track in 12 second splits by design. I don’t want his speed dulled.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think it's pretty clear after yesterday that the Dirt Mile is the proper choice for the Breeders Cup. A repeat in that race is a bit anticlimactic, but that's the way to go. Be nice to see him vs Jack Christopher.

He certainly can't handle Flightline at 10f (who can?) and I think Epicenter & Taiba could beat him at that distance too.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I think it's pretty clear after yesterday that the Dirt Mile is the proper choice for the Breeders Cup. A repeat in that race is a bit anticlimactic, but that's the way to go. Be nice to see him vs Jack Christopher.

He certainly can't handle Flightline at 10f (who can?) and I think Epicenter & Taiba could beat him at that distance too.

He won the Dirt Mile last year. They will almost certainly retire him before waving a white flag and running in it again.

Did the connections say Jack is running in the Mile? I assumed he would got to the Sprint.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He won the Dirt Mile last year. They will almost certainly retire him before waving a white flag and running in it again.

Did the connections say Jack is running in the Mile? I assumed he would got to the Sprint.

pretty light year for sprinters, he seems like a big favorite in the sprint.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

pretty light year for sprinters, he seems like a big favorite in the sprint.

Yeah, that Jackie's Warrior won't take any money.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Yeah, that Jackie's Warrior won't take any money.

embarrassingly I got the two names mixed up ) :

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I think it's pretty clear after yesterday that the Dirt Mile is the proper choice for the Breeders Cup. A repeat in that race is a bit anticlimactic, but that's the way to go. Be nice to see him vs Jack Christopher.

He certainly can't handle Flightline at 10f (who can?) and I think Epicenter & Taiba could beat him at that distance too.

You run LIG in the Classic or not at all.

Sorry, but I'm tired of the excuses of avoiding competition. It will be his last race, with really nothing to lose from an owner/breeding standpoint. Sure, he could get hurt, and have to be put down, but he has been a sound horse that has travelled very well and ran on many different tracks.

Take your shot and run him against a supposed freak that has never ran 10F.

[burnsy]

I think it’s the Classic also. Why not? How is that some awful race . The conditions were such that the Jock and horse wanted to be wide all day. They’re not out there to break some speed record . It’s really a prep. What ? Run him hard as possible yesterday? People act like this race was even close . That’s a “get what you can and move forward “ all the way . I think that horse may of run further than the rest and laughed to the wire . Not sure about that but that’s what it looked like to me.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the only way he's not going to the Classic is if they were expecting a much sharper performance yesterday and he's not working well over the next few weeks. Then they won't run anywhere.

Last year was different. He hadn't been beyond a mile yet or faced the very best older horses. At the time, facing Knicks Go at 9F in the Pegasus after taking on better in the Dirt Mile seemed to make more sense than stretching a 1/4 mile and taking on tougher in one shot. Maybe it was more cautious than some people would have liked, but it was a more logical progression.

The interesting thing is that I haven't heard Baffert make a single comment questioning this horse's ability to get 10F. He praised him again in recent comments when talking about the Classic.

Every time people bring up Dubai to Pletcher he says it was a very deep and slow track that day and he thinks that was a factor in him tiring. I didn't see much evidence the surface was impacting the results that day or had a huge impact in that race going longer, but if he's worried about 10F he's not letting on publicly because he's been consistent in his story. I think he's more concerned about Flightline just being a better horse.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think he's more concerned about Flightline just being a better horse.

Anybody that enters a horse in the Classic has that concern.

I don't get why Taiba, Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, Rich Strike, Country Grammer, Olympiad, or any other horse 'fits' any better than Life Is Good.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer had the track speed staying the same throughout most of the card. He had it slowing down 3 points after the 2 turf races. But it should be noted that the Woodward was the only 2 turn race of the day.

So the figure was made on the assumption that the 2 turn route speed was the same as the 1 turn races, Law Professor ran his usual 95 race, Keepmeinmind and Informative were absolutely terrible in the slop, and LIG ran his worst race since his first start.

IMO, that seems like a reasonable assumption, but it's an assumption.

It could be that the 2 turn track speed was slower than one turn, LIG ran his usual race, and Law Professor, a still relatively lightly raced 4yo, ran a significant new top.

That in combination with the slop would explain why the other two were so badly beaten.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Anybody that enters a horse in the Classic has that concern.

I don't get why Taiba, Epicenter, Hot Rod Charlie, Rich Strike, Country Grammer, Olympiad, or any other horse 'fits' any better than Life Is Good.

I'd say some people (myself among them) would say the 3yos are likely to get better over time (especially Taiba & Epicenter) and close the gap a bit. It's more likely we've seen the best of the older horses by now. Naturally, it looks like a big leap for the 3yos to get where Flightline is in just a little over a month, but if you can make a case that Flighline won't repeat his Pacific Classic and could take pressure from LIG, it stops looking impossible to get close.

I don't hate LIG as much as my Twitter feed. I'm trying to convince myself he can still have a big impact on this race despite yesterday's effort.