Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-09-2017, 09:24 PM   #16
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by zawaaa View Post
why do i feel that nobody ITT has the slightest idea what the word collusion means?

or game theory, for that matter
You're the obvious expert.

Enlighten me.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2017, 09:32 PM   #17
SandyW
Registered User
 
SandyW's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 930
Impossible to stop, impossible to police, there are partners and collusion in all these tournaments including partners that may be thousands of miles away, but are in continuing contact with the partner that is on site.
There are beards playing tickets for the actual player that should be putting the plays in at all these tournaments.
What about the husband and wife that each has two entries and the husband or the wife are controlling all four entries? Collusion or strategy, you tell me.
That is why I stopped playing in all these tournaments.

Last edited by SandyW; 11-09-2017 at 09:35 PM.
SandyW is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2017, 09:40 PM   #18
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyW View Post
Impossible to stop, impossible to police, there are partners and collusion in all these tournaments including partners that may be thousands of miles away, but are in continuing contact with the partner that is on site.
There are beards playing tickets for the actual player that should be putting the plays in at all these tournaments.
What about the husband and wife that each has two entries and the husband or the wife are controlling all four entries? Collusion or strategy, you tell me.
That is why I stopped playing in all these tournaments.
Seems like Pick and Pray would eliminate most of these issues.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-09-2017, 09:43 PM   #19
NTamm1215
Registered User
 
NTamm1215's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 752
Winning these tournaments is extremely difficult, both because of the pressure of the handicapping and betting and the quality of your competitors. There is no doubt that guys like Kevin McFarland, Nisan and anyone else they associate with are VERY good players and I have tremendous respect for their accomplishments.

When approached about joining the effort to ensure that no rules were broken, I wanted one specific item to be investigated closely. If a player did not play the required number of races and took a penalty that cost them points rather than dollars, then bet late in the contest with a full bankroll, then my feeling is that rule needs to be changed. For example, the contest requires you to play 5 races each day at a certain dollar amount. If you fail to do so on either day, you receive a 1,000 point deduction for each race you fail to bet. Thus, Nisan's total after Day 1 was 2,500 (the original $7,500-5000 point penalty). However, he still maintained a full $7,500 bankroll from which he could bet.

If what is believed to be true is, and it is clearly admitted in the story that his first bet was the Juvenile, then I'd like to see the BC change that rule. Nisan took advantage of it and I cannot fault him for doing so. But there has to be attention drawn to it so it can be changed.

That was my only concern in signing a letter that, from my perspective, was as much about getting the rules straightened out than punishing those who may have used them to their advantage this year.
NTamm1215 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 12:16 AM   #20
menifee
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,745
1. More than two entries are not permitted.
2. Collusion is not permitted.
One individual did not make a selection until his partner was eliminated in the tournament.
3. They set up an LLC to share tournament proceeds with each other and admitted to sharing proceeds in past tournaments.
4. The evidence is pretty clear they colluded and intentionally violated a rule.

This is very simple -they forfeit the prize and are banned from participating in tournaments going forward. You cannot have this. Tournaments would fail as the whale teams would destroy the smaller player. Alternatively, they could allow for collusion and player teams, but at least,the individual player would know what he was dealing with in terms of his odds.

Last edited by menifee; 11-10-2017 at 12:21 AM.
menifee is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 01:30 AM   #21
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by zawaaa View Post
why do i feel that nobody ITT has the slightest idea what the word collusion means?

or game theory, for that matter
I don't know how handicapping contests eork.

But no story involving gambling collusion will ever surprise me.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 08:53 AM   #22
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee View Post
1. More than two entries are not permitted.
2. Collusion is not permitted.
One individual did not make a selection until his partner was eliminated in the tournament.
3. They set up an LLC to share tournament proceeds with each other and admitted to sharing proceeds in past tournaments.
4. The evidence is pretty clear they colluded and intentionally violated a rule.

This is very simple -they forfeit the prize and are banned from participating in tournaments going forward. You cannot have this. Tournaments would fail as the whale teams would destroy the smaller player. Alternatively, they could allow for collusion and player teams, but at least,the individual player would know what he was dealing with in terms of his odds.
I don't think they broke any rules Menifee.

I also don't think they tried to take advantage of the system per say.

I do think they played the system at hand, and when faced with a Full House, they nutted 4th and 5th street for the win.

NTamm1215 broke it down quite well. He, and I'm sure all contest players, want a legit and fair tournament played by all entries. Put in your wagers. Play the required plays. And let the cards fall as they may.

I don't think there is anybody "wrong" in all this, but I do think we'll see a rule change in the future. Maybe we'll call it the horse players "tuck" rule.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 09:05 AM   #23
LemonSoupKid
Registered User
 
LemonSoupKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
I don't think they broke any rules Menifee.

I also don't think they tried to take advantage of the system per say.

I do think they played the system at hand, and when faced with a Full House, they nutted 4th and 5th street for the win.

NTamm1215 broke it down quite well. He, and I'm sure all contest players, want a legit and fair tournament played by all entries. Put in your wagers. Play the required plays. And let the cards fall as they may.

I don't think there is anybody "wrong" in all this, but I do think we'll see a rule change in the future. Maybe we'll call it the horse players "tuck" rule.
LemonDrop,

If what Menifee said above is true (it seems you don't deny it) how did they not break any rules?

The basic question for this is that it's a "handicapping" contest. Not a partnering contest. If you, LDH, went up against me in such a contest, and I found you were involving another person (even forgetting here they had extra handle!) how on earth could you claim that you were a better 'capper if you won?

I think this exposes your legalistic take on such a story. It's pretty poor.
LemonSoupKid is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 09:35 AM   #24
Si2see
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 602
None of this surprises me at all, but I can tell you if they were to make a disqualification here then all live tourneys are in trouble.

I don't know that I have ever played in a live tournament where there weren't "partner entries" being played. The difference is some tournaments allow more than 2 entries, so you don't have to use several names in these tournaments.

I can also tell you that for a FACT there are players in some of the less popular Vegas contests in particular, where there could be someone playing an entry, and that person doesn't even step foot in the state of Nevada to do so. This is more of a problem to me than teaming up with a lifelong friend or wagering partner.

Jason
Si2see is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 09:42 AM   #25
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Assuming they played as a team, I still don't see where their advantage was. Can someone explain it to me?
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 10:22 AM   #26
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post
Assuming they played as a team, I still don't see where their advantage was. Can someone explain it to me?
It's game theory.

Imo, Lemon Drop Husker nailed it with post #9 of this thread:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
In a nutshell, you had 2 players (in theory) colluding to play against the rest of the field in which they were wagering together on a single entry till that entry was gone, and then started firing their selections on the next one, and ended up winning.

The 1st entry had a $1 Million bonus if he won.

They are also known "business" partners who share their winnings in horse wagering tournaments.

In short, it was a $7,500 tourney, and they started with $15,000 and twice as many bullets as everybody else.

They had multiple entries.

Assuming they colluded:

The first entry had a $1M bonus if they were able to get that entry to win. So they started there.

By focusing 100% of their play on the first entry (and 0% of their play on the second entry) until it became apparent the first entry was dead:

At the point in time when they began making plays for the second entry:

The second entry had 100% of remaining bankroll and 100% of remaining bullets.

They still needed to make winning plays for the second entry.

But assuming you are able to do so: imo, the 100% of remaining bullets part gives the second entry an edge over the other entries in the tournament with less than 100% of remaining bullets.

Game theory.

However, if you assume they colluded, you also have to assume others in the tournament did the same thing.

I suspect they were not the only ones in the tournament who colluded or used game theory.

They just outperformed everybody else.



-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 11-10-2017 at 10:29 AM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 11:08 AM   #27
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
It's game theory.

Imo, Lemon Drop Husker nailed it with post #9 of this thread:



They had multiple entries.

Assuming they colluded:

The first entry had a $1M bonus if they were able to get that entry to win. So they started there.

By focusing 100% of their play on the first entry (and 0% of their play on the second entry) until it became apparent the first entry was dead:

At the point in time when they began making plays for the second entry:

The second entry had 100% of remaining bankroll and 100% of remaining bullets.

They still needed to make winning plays for the second entry.

But assuming you are able to do so: imo, the 100% of remaining bullets part gives the second entry an edge over the other entries in the tournament with less than 100% of remaining bullets.

Game theory.

However, if you assume they colluded, you also have to assume others in the tournament did the same thing.

I suspect they were not the only ones in the tournament who colluded or used game theory.

They just outperformed everybody else.



-jp

.
If that is the sum total of the advantage obtained by colluding then perhaps the rules should encourage collusion.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 11:14 AM   #28
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 11:25 AM   #29
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,739
it sounds like the structure of the tournament is wrong. from what i gather the players were allowed to bet as much or as little as they wanted to on any particular race. in turn the structure led the way to collusion. they should make the bets the same size right straight through the whole tournament and rely on ability to pick winners rather than a high tech money management scheme.
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-10-2017, 11:32 AM   #30
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
I think this is where I land.

A rules change is needed.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.