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11-10-2017, 07:05 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Aqueduct Main Track
As some of you know, Aqueduct's inner track is history, as it has been turned into a turf course. The main track has been "winterized" so NYRA racing will be raced over the main track from November to May. So far after five racing days on the main track, the track seems to have a Parx-like dull rail and a tiring surface. Horses have gone wire to wire but raced well off the rail. It will be interesting to see if this is how the track will play all winter, or if the colder weather will change it. It could also be that the surface is loose right now and could tighten up. The top rider's have been avoiding the inside when they have a front runner.
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11-10-2017, 08:36 AM
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#2
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
As some of you know, Aqueduct's inner track is history, as it has been turned into a turf course. The main track has been "winterized" so NYRA racing will be raced over the main track from November to May. So far after five racing days on the main track, the track seems to have a Parx-like dull rail and a tiring surface. Horses have gone wire to wire but raced well off the rail. It will be interesting to see if this is how the track will play all winter, or if the colder weather will change it. It could also be that the surface is loose right now and could tighten up. The top rider's have been avoiding the inside when they have a front runner.
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Thxs Pandy....
I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.
With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner
as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..
just a FYI
Mike
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11-10-2017, 08:49 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Thxs Pandy....
I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.
With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner
as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..
just a FYI
Mike
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Yes, it may not have a negative effect on the actual post position win percentage and percentage of early speed winners if the rider's who draw an inside post can get off the inside. It seems as if the material that was added to the main track, to winterize it, has slowed it and created a dull rail. For those of you who play NYRA, I do post track bias info on my website. So far the track is playing fair, even with the dull rail.
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11-10-2017, 09:13 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Thxs Pandy....
I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.
With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner
as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..
just a FYI
Mike
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Hey Mike
There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.
That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)
We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 11-10-2017 at 09:24 AM.
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11-10-2017, 10:02 AM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Mike
There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.
That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)
We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!! |
take out that biigie that most will never have..
Finding value will be had to get.....betting horses over 5 -1 will get you in the streets...FAST
Typical AQU that I always stay away from
You get this:
Code:
By: Rail Position
Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
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1 -25.50 82.00 0.6890 7 41 .1707 1.1718 8.07
2 -26.10 74.00 0.6473 7 37 .1892 1.2985 6.84
3 -48.40 70.00 0.3086 3 35 .0857 0.5883 7.20
4 0.90 84.00 1.0107 3 42 .0714 0.4903 28.30
5 -47.00 76.00 0.3816 4 38 .1053 0.7225 7.25
6 -40.60 80.00 0.4925 7 40 .1750 1.2011 5.63
7 14.10 36.00 1.3917 3 18 .1667 1.1439 16.70
8 -24.90 36.00 0.3083 2 18 .1111 0.7626 5.55
9 0.80 24.00 1.0333 3 12 .2500 1.7159 8.27
10 -1.20 24.00 0.9500 3 12 .2500 1.7159 7.60
11 18.80 8.00 3.3500 2 4 .5000 3.4318 13.40
12 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Code:
By: Morning Line
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
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-999.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.5000 1.0000 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
1.0000 1.5000 0.20 6.00 1.0333 2 3 .6667 4.5758
1.5000 2.0000 -7.60 28.00 0.7286 4 14 .2857 1.9610
2.0000 2.5000 15.00 28.00 1.5357 7 14 .5000 3.4318
2.5000 3.0000 -3.90 34.00 0.8853 5 17 .2941 2.0187
3.0000 3.5000 -25.50 44.00 0.4205 3 22 .1364 0.9360
3.5000 4.0000 -19.20 42.00 0.5429 3 21 .1429 0.9805
4.0000 4.5000 -19.80 34.00 0.4176 2 17 .1176 0.8075
4.5000 5.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5.0000 5.5000 18.00 50.00 1.3600 7 25 .2800 1.9218
5.5000 6.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6.0000 6.5000 -28.20 86.00 0.6721 5 43 .1163 0.7981
6.5000 7.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.0000 7.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.5000 8.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.0000 8.5000 -58.60 62.00 0.0548 1 31 .0323 0.2214
8.5000 9.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9.0000 9999.0000 -57.50 188.00 0.6941 5 94 .0532 0.3651
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11-10-2017, 10:52 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
take out that biigie that most will never have..
Finding value will be had to get.....betting horses over 5 -1 will get you in the streets...FAST
Typical AQU that I always stay away from
You get this:
Code:
By: Rail Position
Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -25.50 82.00 0.6890 7 41 .1707 1.1718 8.07
2 -26.10 74.00 0.6473 7 37 .1892 1.2985 6.84
3 -48.40 70.00 0.3086 3 35 .0857 0.5883 7.20
4 0.90 84.00 1.0107 3 42 .0714 0.4903 28.30
5 -47.00 76.00 0.3816 4 38 .1053 0.7225 7.25
6 -40.60 80.00 0.4925 7 40 .1750 1.2011 5.63
7 14.10 36.00 1.3917 3 18 .1667 1.1439 16.70
8 -24.90 36.00 0.3083 2 18 .1111 0.7626 5.55
9 0.80 24.00 1.0333 3 12 .2500 1.7159 8.27
10 -1.20 24.00 0.9500 3 12 .2500 1.7159 7.60
11 18.80 8.00 3.3500 2 4 .5000 3.4318 13.40
12 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Code:
By: Morning Line
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.5000 1.0000 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
1.0000 1.5000 0.20 6.00 1.0333 2 3 .6667 4.5758
1.5000 2.0000 -7.60 28.00 0.7286 4 14 .2857 1.9610
2.0000 2.5000 15.00 28.00 1.5357 7 14 .5000 3.4318
2.5000 3.0000 -3.90 34.00 0.8853 5 17 .2941 2.0187
3.0000 3.5000 -25.50 44.00 0.4205 3 22 .1364 0.9360
3.5000 4.0000 -19.20 42.00 0.5429 3 21 .1429 0.9805
4.0000 4.5000 -19.80 34.00 0.4176 2 17 .1176 0.8075
4.5000 5.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5.0000 5.5000 18.00 50.00 1.3600 7 25 .2800 1.9218
5.5000 6.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6.0000 6.5000 -28.20 86.00 0.6721 5 43 .1163 0.7981
6.5000 7.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.0000 7.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.5000 8.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.0000 8.5000 -58.60 62.00 0.0548 1 31 .0323 0.2214
8.5000 9.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9.0000 9999.0000 -57.50 188.00 0.6941 5 94 .0532 0.3651
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Hey Mike
You are right on the button with those Morning Line 5-1's they had a great day on November 5th for some reason!!!
They won 3 races back to back to bring up the return on investment!!!
Overall they are giving you a 35% return as you mentioned per $2 win wager
Let's keep tabs on this for the rest of the Aqueduct season!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 11-10-2017 at 11:04 AM.
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11-10-2017, 11:33 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Mike
You are right on the button with those Morning Line 5-1's they had a great day on November 5th for some reason!!!
They won 3 races back to back to bring up the return on investment!!!
Overall they are giving you a 35% return as you mentioned per $2 win wager
Let's keep tabs on this for the rest of the Aqueduct season!!! |
Let's see what these do today at Aqueduct!!!
Maybe W I Mott comes through in the 7th today!!!
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11-10-2017, 11:43 AM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Mott has 2 horses in that race....
Length can be used to set up his firster....by getting him in fight up front
Also Length hasn't raced on dirt
GL , anyway
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11-13-2017, 05:30 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Mike
There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.
That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)
We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!! |
Hey Mike,
When I look at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf at Aqueduct I get 4 wins and 1 place in 9 attempts, but again these are not post positions
Let's keep an eye on this for the remainder of the Aqueduct season on the Turf!!!
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