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Old 05-20-2018, 05:50 PM   #151
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CJ can speak for himself, but given he had those horses as very fast and they then went on to great accomplishments, that strongly suggests he was correct when he claimed they were very fast right from the start.
I don't know how hard it is to spot those talents. Each effort stands on its own though, and talents don't always run to their best.
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Old 05-20-2018, 05:57 PM   #152
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Would you expect any horse who was dueling on the lead the entire race not to get tired? The fact that he got tired is not necessarily an indication of declining form. The key, obviously, is how he recovers from the effort.
I don't think he ran as well yesterday as he did in the Derby.

1. I think a reasonable case can be made that Pimlico was a bit speed favoring yesterday.

2. Justify and Good Magic went at it almost the whole way, but there's not much evidence they were going particularly fast. The fractions relative to the final time were not blistering and Bravazo was only between 1 1/2 - 3 lengths behind them early. He's not a brilliantly fast horse and he was the one coming at them late not some deep closer.

Given 1 and 2, it looks to me like the duel took something out of the top two given that Justify and Good Magic are better than horses like Bravazo, Tenfold, and Lone Sailor by more than that, but given the former was closest too them early, I don't think the race fell apart that much.

My best guess is that the race was not all that good.

Justify struggled to hold off a Grade 2 horse after a tough but not monumentally difficult trip relative to him and nothing suggests that Bravazo made some huge leap forward given the other horses in the proximity aren't very accomplished. Maybe Justify was several lengths the best, but I don't think it was his best effort.
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:05 PM   #153
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this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.
That would probably be all of 1-2 horses at most, depending on the field. Or maybe not even 1.....just an elite 10F-er type who can somehow make it 2 extra furlongs without falling down in the stretch, which isn't necessarily a true "12F horse".
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:10 PM   #154
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That would probably be all of 1-2 horses at most, depending on the field. Or maybe not even 1.....just an elite 10F-er type who can somehow make it 2 extra furlongs without falling down in the stretch, which isn't necessarily a true "12F horse".
Was Summing a 12 furlong horse? Sarava? Da Tara? They all spoiled TC bids.

I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:18 PM   #155
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Was Summing a 12 furlong horse? Sarava? Da Tara? They all spoiled TC bids.

I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.

Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:20 PM   #156
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I don't think it takes a ton of talent to win the Belmont Stakes. Or some magical skill at 12 furlongs..All you have to do is be the one who gets less tired than the others.

I guess there's no good reason why so few 12F races are carded in the U.S. then, since there is no magical skill, except to be "less tired".



Like I said, winning at 12F *once* does not a 12F horse make....so in the U.S. it's difficult because most horses will never be given an opportunity to do it a 2nd time.

Last edited by clicknow; 05-20-2018 at 06:29 PM.
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Old 05-20-2018, 06:25 PM   #157
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Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.
Then looking at the female side, there would also be more clues. Conduit mare profiles, etc.

It's funny how people with very tall children will understand that is because they got passed on a gene from someone earlier in the family history, that allowed them to qualify to be basketball players, ditto, to be short enough to be jockeys.

But if you bring up TB pedigree, so many will PSHAW! it.

(thank god they are in the parimutuel pool....The Belmont is my favorite race.)

Last edited by clicknow; 05-20-2018 at 06:28 PM.
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Old 05-20-2018, 07:07 PM   #158
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Of the three only Sarava had a DI above 4.00 - and not only were both Summing and Da Tara below 4.00, but neither were void on the stamina wing.
The point was there was no reason to think those horses were going to go 1 1/2 miles better than their competitors and beat a horse trying for a TC.
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Old 05-20-2018, 07:08 PM   #159
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I guess there's no good reason why so few 12F races are carded in the U.S. then, since there is no magical skill, except to be "less tired".



Like I said, winning at 12F *once* does not a 12F horse make....so in the U.S. it's difficult because most horses will never be given an opportunity to do it a 2nd time.
An industry focused on getting your money back quickly isn't going to have many 12 furlong races.
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Old 05-24-2018, 04:31 PM   #160
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Hofburg has the best pedigree for this race, if that in fact matters ...
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Old 05-24-2018, 05:42 PM   #161
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Let's move the ball somewhat.

I am going to exclude the first two TC winners, because they raced on a different schedule. (Sir Barton's Belmont was 11 furlongs, and Gallant Fox's Preakness was before the Derby.)

Only three TC winners had a close call in the Preakness: Affirmed, Assault, and War Admiral. Affirmed and War Admiral had a single challenger who was a very good horse and they were way out in front of the rest of the field. Assault got a bad start, had to be used hard, and he and the runner up finished clear of the rest of the field.

I will use this video from ABC sports, which contains footage all the TC's except for American Pharoah, as the guide for this:


Omaha won the Preakness by 6 lengths over Firethorn.

War Admiral won the Preakness by a head over Pompoon, a very good horse. It was way back to the third horse.

Whirlaway made one of the greatest moves in the history of horse racing, moving in and out of horses and winning the Preakness by a distance over King Cole.

Count Fleet won the Preakness by 8 lengths over Blue Swords.

Assault got a bad start in the Preakness but won by a neck over Lord Boswell. They were well clear of the third place finisher.

Citation won the Preakness by 5 1/2 lengths.

Secretariat won the Preakness by 2 1/2 lengths over Sham, and it was a long way back to the third horse. Secretariat made a premature move in that race, and ran what was almost certainly the fastest Preakness up to that time (although exactly how fast he ran is forever shrouded in mystery).

Seattle Slew won the Preakness by a length and a half. His time, though, was the third fastest Preakness up to that time in history.

Affirmed won the Preakness by a neck over Alydar, a very good racehorse who also finished a head back in the Belmont. They were well clear of the third horse.

American Pharoah won the Preakness by seven lengths over Tale of Verve.

So if Justify wins the Belmont, he will have done so after winning the least impressive Preakness of any TC winner except perhaps Assault, in which he beat Bravazo, Tenfold, Good Magic, and Lone Sailor by pretty short margins.

I think the correct play is to be skeptical of TC attempts to begin with, but at the very least, I want to see a smashing victory in the Preakness, either in terms of winning margin, time, or horses beaten, before concluding a horse is going to win the TC. You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:04 PM   #162
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I think the correct play is to be skeptical of TC attempts to begin with, but at the very least, I want to see a smashing victory in the Preakness, either in terms of winning margin, time, or horses beaten, before concluding a horse is going to win the TC. You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.
Talk about small sample sizes and/or randomness!
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:19 PM   #163
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You simply don't win the TC three weeks after barely beating Bravazo while running a 97 Beyer.
You are right.
I am all over someone who did not with the Preakness and earned a Beyer lower than 97.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:22 PM   #164
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Interesting info above. It’s easy to develop tunnel vision in this game for the favorite or against it. Justify wasn’t my first choice in the Derby but he fit enough of my angles to play on top with my other two selections. I used him almost exclusely on top in Preakness. Now several contenders fit my Belmont angles better than Justify. This time I will let him beat me in the win pool and hope he finishes out of the money. His BSF and Brisnet dropped, he’s got the hoof issue, he’s got 12 panels, and he’s got fresh competition that doesn’t need to be all that great to hit the wire first. Maybe Hofburg will be the next Tapit to get the job done. Maybe Blended Citizen with the Raise A Native sire line and Northrn Dancer dam sire line like many Belmont winners before the Tapit invasion. I didn’t hit Tonalist very hard several years back and regretted it for a long time. I’ll take a bigger swing this year.
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Old 05-25-2018, 10:46 AM   #165
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Justify broke the Apollo "curse" and now he's trying to be the first horse to win the triple crown who didn't race as a two year old. can he do it? i'd like to see him do it but i don't like his chances. i see him coming up empty in the stretch.
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