07/03/22 - Belmont Race 1 - 2yo going 5.5 F
My betting line for this race:
9/2 (never getting)
3/1
5/1
I'll try and beat the
and expect to play the 3&5.
The rollout of expensive 2 year olds... I'm sure there's people who have an edge betting a race like this... I'm not one of them.
Pedigree:
Mendelssohn is 1 for 7 so far, Ray Handal 0 for 8, 38% ITM with 2 year olds. worked 30 F, 1 out of the gate
Violence is 2 for 3, Pletcher 24 for 73 (33%) W, 62% ITM, 23F, 2 out of gate
good magic is 3 for 7, McGaughey 3 for 20 (15%), 40% ITM, 28F, 3 out of the gate
Tapwrit is 1 for 6, Rudy Rod 6 for 45 (13%), 44% ITM, 28F, no gate works?
Speightstown is 1 for 3, Pletcher 24 for 73 (33%) W, 62% ITM , 39F, 2 gate works
Pioneer of the Nile (N/A), Carlos Martin 2 for 11 (18%) 45% ITM , 22F, 2 gate works
I'm going to lean on the pedigree stats and cut the
off the bat. The pps show no works out of the gate and will somehow pass the starters. Going to assume this is a glorified gate work, with Tapwrit's being 1 for 6...while the small sample size, I'm going to argue tapwrits are going to need time to develop.
My second cut is the
I've heard Ray Handal's horse is training well and he thinks highly of this one. However, it's hard to argue the above stats of 1 for 7, and zero for 8 with 2 year olds. The 1 work out of the gate is fine. The morning line odds have me looking else where for value.
That leaves me with 2/3/5/6
Was a huge fan of No Parole... he had an unreal action and just looked the part of a race horse. I'm going to leave the
as a contender.
The
I wanted to discount bc McGaughey typically gives his horses time to learn on their own. This one has 3 bullet works and Kendrick up... I think you have to respect this one.
Giant work tab and Saez in the irons... this is the only one with a pair of five furlong works. Saw a you-tube video with this one... he's huge. I'm going to respect this one bc of the larger odds. even though he's likely training for high hope later on in life.
I'm going to let this one beat me... the 10k price tag in a group like this is enough for me to pass.
After 4 Bets results:
Bet: ($10.00)
Collected: $34.60
Net: $24.60
I actually liked my play yesterday and am happy with the logic. Trying to not be results oriented on the 2 million dollar pletcher horse that won. I think my bet was fine in that spot and I'll continue to discount first timers going long.