he made millions betting racing

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Let me say, that I respect the tons of work that Formula does in his tote board hobby. I just want to learn if it's possible to do, not what he reports, but the top three locked down before they're OFF. I can't do it and want to learn how it's done.
People who work with the Tote board data on a horse racing site named Pace Advantage will always get a fair of amount of doubters, and some ridicule, that's expected from where I'm sitting.

Keep doing what you're doing Formula, this game has a lot of angles and variables. What did Einstein say, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
And that flies in the face of thinking on a horse racing site. What about four cans of academia nuts?

Thanks for your support.

I have to analyze the bet size and results for each of the top three. Academia nuts? There's a lesson to be learned there

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Thanks for your support.

I have to analyze the bet size and results for each of the top three. Academia nuts? There's a lesson to be learned there

Damn auto coRRect.

[MJC922]

The article is quite old now and I recall reading it years ago. One thing I wonder about is how is this guy doing these days? Is he still doing it, is he even alive? It's a hell of a pace to maintain betting those sums and riding the rollercoaster ride by the seat of his pants. I can only fantasize about how much I could've made with the 10% ROI I had betting on every race before rebates ever existed. With that being said I have no desire to live this guy's lifestyle (or similar again) I don't care how much he's making tbh. CAW is the only siren call I hear anymore.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by MJC922

the 10% ROI I had betting on every race before rebates ever existed.

that is quite remarkable

I don't think I've ever heard anybody claim anything like that before

would you care to share some of your methodology?


.

[formula_2002]

here is today's full card at pax
a winning day for win plays and exacta plays 60% winners for races showing a profit

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

. But I dont want to put that time into it

re posting bets before race time

it would take hardly any time at all

you have a tab open in your computer and before the post parade you can put into your PA post - "Oaklawn race 7__________then when you've made your picks all you have to do is add__________" 3, 5, 9" to your post and hit enter

you don't have to put the proportionate amounts that you are betting on each horse - that would take time - at least everybody can then confirm your 50% or greater hit rate - you don't need to post the odds either - everybody can check the odds themselves and see whether the play was likely to be profitable by an amount at least equal to the amount you bet which is what I believe you have stated

if you post your winning picks after the fact and refuse to post them before the race - well

there is always going to be the suspicion that the plays aren't real whether or not that suspicion is justified

maybe you don't care about that

but many others do


.

[tholl]

Originally Posted by MJC922

The article is quite old now and I recall reading it years ago. One thing I wonder about is how is this guy doing these days? Is he still doing it, is he even alive? It's a hell of a pace to maintain betting those sums and riding the rollercoaster ride by the seat of his pants. I can only fantasize about how much I could've made with the 10% ROI I had betting on every race before rebates ever existed. With that being said I have no desire to live this guy's lifestyle (or similar again) I don't care how much he's making tbh. CAW is the only siren call I hear anymore.

I knew Haley vaguely when he was an excercise rider at Keeneland in the 90s and had run into him a couple of times in Vegas. At that time his main focus was on Turfway, which had some wild and quickly changing track biases through the unpredictable Kentucky winters.

When Turfway went to Polytrack his main edge was gone. I believe he continued betting in Vegas for a few more years but the last I heard he had quit and was back in Lexington.

[formula_2002]

re posting bets before race time

it would take hardly any time at all
I have done that for years on pa.
But not so much with the current method of play. I see something of value here that requires me to put my time into reviewing previously collected data, and when time permits, the final full cards of a daily race track


you have a tab open in your computer and before the post parade you can put into your PA post - "Oaklawn race 7__________then when you've made your picks all you have to do is add__________" 3, 5, 9" to your post and hit enter.
Not so, I have to cut and paste the play into pa's format


you don't have to put the proportionate amounts that you are betting on each horse - that would take time - at least everybody can then confirm your 50% or greater hit rate - you don't need to post the odds either - everybody can check the odds themselves and see whether the play was likely to be profitable by an amount at least equal to the amount you bet which is what I believe you have stated

the proportional amounts are posted.

if you post your winning picks after the fact and refuse to post them before the race - well
Well indeed!!

there is always going to be the suspicion that the plays aren't real whether or not that suspicion is justified

maybe you don't care about that.
I dont
in the end, after 500 races, if my results outperform the public's flat bet results I'll invest in a coded program that will generate the plays and bet sizes. But that is the next study.


I post in this forum rather than the Selections forum because this is a study.
I don't bet

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by tholl

I knew Haley vaguely when he was an excercise rider at Keeneland in the 90s and had run into him a couple of times in Vegas. At that time his main focus was on Turfway, which had some wild and quickly changing track biases through the unpredictable Kentucky winters.

When Turfway went to Polytrack his main edge was gone. I believe he continued betting in Vegas for a few more years but the last I heard he had quit and was back in Lexington.

Thanks for the update. Maybe he was able to put some of that money away before things turned. Wishing him the best of luck picking up the pieces after that experience.

[formula_2002]

Regarding yesterday's results at PAX.

this endeavor is to present win bet sizes such that, they outperform, in this case the return on the favorite.

well, the favorite happens to have won, through no effort of mine, 5 of the 10 races.

a proportional odds bet using the fair value of the favorite's probability outperformed my proportional odds bet.
the public play returned $1.26, mine$1.18

I need to see how this comparison works out for the remaining races on hand.
need to build a few more excel macros.

[formula_2002]

correction yea

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Regarding yesterday's results at PAX.

this endeavor is to present win bet sizes such that, they outperform, in this case the return on the favorite.

well, the favorite happens to have won, through no effort of mine, 5 of the 10 races.

a proportional odds bet using the fair value of the favorite's probability outperformed my proportional odds bet.
the public play returned $1.26, mine$1.30

I need to see how this comparison works out for the remaining races on hand.
need to build a few more excel macros.

then again if i my probability/public probability becomes the bet size my $1 return is $1.46
isn't this fun

[Red Knave]

I know that you use win, place, show and exacta pools. Could you, or do you, include the double/pick3/pick4 pools that end in this race also? Double pools should be pretty predictive, not sure about 3, 4, 5, 6 picks.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Red Knave

I know that you use win, place, show and exacta pools. Could you, or do you, include the double/pick3/pick4 pools that end in this race also? Double pools should be pretty predictive, not sure about 3, 4, 5, 6 picks.

Sorry, no. Way beyond my pay grade

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

then again if i my probability/public probability

so, what happens if you scope out the pools and your top choice is 7/5 and your 2nd choice is 2/1

and you odds line on your top choice is 45% win probability

and on your 2nd choice is 35% win probability

let's say you're planning to bet $100 on each race

how much do you bet on each horse?

and this kind of thing happens fairly often with the odds



I'm guessing you pass on the race.______correct___________?


.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

so, what happens if you scope out the pools and your top choice is 7/5 and your 2nd choice is 2/1

and you odds line on your top choice is 45% win probability

and on your 2nd choice is 35% win probability

let's say you're planning to bet $100 on each race

how much do you bet on each horse?

and this kind of thing happens fairly often with the odds



I'm guessing you pass on the race.______correct___________?


.

Can't answer for Mr. Formula, but Nitro used to post on his dutching model, that if his top picks weren't showing a potential 50% profit margin, he passed.

Understand that he wasn't automatically picking the top three choices but the top two or three horses that showed the most movement in the pools he used. I remember that when he had three showing positive action into the pools, he often passed.