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Old 03-11-2019, 08:34 AM   #151
Redboard
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Thanks for your asinine post.....Relax.
It's going to stop raining, the track's going to dry out, they will hold the BC there. That's my point, now what's yours?
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:41 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by cutchemist42 View Post

horse racing is not economically important enough to save

I would beg to differ:



From the 2017 AHC Economic Impact Report at https://www.horsecouncil.org/press-r...-impact-study/


The Racing sector continues to have the largest economic impact: supporting more than 241,000 direct jobs and adding $15.6 billion in direct value to the U.S. economy. These direct impacts add $21 billion in value to the economy, and in total create more than 231,000 jobs from both indirect and induced effects. At Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racetracks, approximately $11 billion in wagering occurred in 2016, and tracks had $1.2 billion in total purses. Harness racetracks also had significant wagering of $1.45 billion, with $423 million in total purses.
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:07 AM   #153
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Baffert sending Improbable and Game Winner to the Rebel and if there are no defections then they will split it into 2 races with points split as well.


As far as fatalities, here in Kentucky there were 36 fatalities and 24 were at Churchill with 16 of those in races and 8 in training. I have stated before this is a car wreck vs plane wreck mentality. Far more people die in auto accidents than in planes but because the loss of life in a plane wreck is greater then that is what gets the headlines. You heard almost nothing about the 24 deaths @ CD because it happened over the year where as SA happened in 3 months.
There are 3 options here
1. You do everything humanly possible to make dirt and turf tracks safe and keep horses healthy and accept that there will be fatalities and injuries in the sport.
2. Mandate that tracks go to synthetic(which ever type they choose) and pray that the stuff the horses are breathing in does not kill them down the road or that it effects them as far as breeding goes.
3. Stop racing.
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Old 03-11-2019, 12:00 PM   #154
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It's going to stop raining, the track's going to dry out, they will hold the BC there. That's my point, now what's yours?
Have you thought about what happens if they resume racing and there are more fatalities? That can totally happen, you know.

I assure you, again, the BC IS thinking about this.
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:45 PM   #155
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If the fatalities are do track conditions which are fixed the problem goes away.

If the fatalities are do to chemical abuse. It's over
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:53 PM   #156
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I played greyhounds in FL all the time in the late 70's and early 80's. It was a heyday for greyhound racing. Never did an end seem in sight. However, other forms of gambling started eroding greyhound betting. But something else did as well, drugs and poor treatment of the greyhounds by some kennels/trainers which resulted in deaths and bad press. As it stands now, greyhound racing in FL will end at the end of 2020.
Jim
Speaking of greyhound racing, do any ADWs actually take wagering on the races. I've been looking for a way to play them for fun once in awhile. I think NY is restricted.
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Old 03-11-2019, 02:12 PM   #157
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tvg
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Old 03-11-2019, 02:28 PM   #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper View Post
I would beg to differ:



From the 2017 AHC Economic Impact Report at https://www.horsecouncil.org/press-r...-impact-study/


The Racing sector continues to have the largest economic impact: supporting more than 241,000 direct jobs and adding $15.6 billion in direct value to the U.S. economy. These direct impacts add $21 billion in value to the economy, and in total create more than 231,000 jobs from both indirect and induced effects. At Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racetracks, approximately $11 billion in wagering occurred in 2016, and tracks had $1.2 billion in total purses. Harness racetracks also had significant wagering of $1.45 billion, with $423 million in total purses.
I didnt say it was my original thought. Caroline Betts the economist wrote it on Twitter and I dont think I misunderstood what she was writing. DM for sources maybe?
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Old 03-11-2019, 02:44 PM   #159
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Speaking of greyhound racing, do any ADWs actually take wagering on the races. I've been looking for a way to play them for fun once in awhile. I think NY is restricted.
Did you invest in the horse and buggy in 1912 too?
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:33 PM   #160
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Have you thought about what happens if they resume racing and there are more fatalities? That can totally happen, you know.

I assure you, again, the BC IS thinking about this.
I just checked the 10-day for Arcadia and, after tonight when there could be a brief shower, there’s no rain for the next ten days. According to Peterson and LaRocco, the track is consistent. If the breakdowns continue to happen, that could be a problem, but I would wait until we get two or three weeks of dry weather before panicking. If anyone here wants to bet( as a charity thing) that the BC is going to be moved from SA this year, I’m in. With the loser having to donate to help support PaceAdvantage.com. Just name your price.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:43 PM   #161
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I just checked the 10-day for Arcadia and, after tonight when there could be a brief shower, there’s no rain for the next ten days. According to Peterson and LaRocco, the track is consistent. If the breakdowns continue to happen, that could be a problem, but I would wait until we get two or three weeks of dry weather before panicking. If anyone here wants to bet( as a charity thing) that the BC is going to be moved from SA this year, I’m in. With the loser having to donate to help support PaceAdvantage.com. Just name your price.

I am not going to bet anything. I think the chances of a move are less than 5 percent. My claim (and I think Randall's as well) is that the BC is keeping lines of communication open just in case a move becomes necessary. Given the amount of preparation and work that goes into putting on a BC, they would be crazy not to be.


Having said that, I think your assumption that these fatalities are purely a result of bad weather is just that, an assumption. They could also be a result of statistical bad luck, the horse shortage, medication problems, the composition of the track (including what is under the track), etc. We don't know. And for that reason we don't know what's going to happen after March 23. Heck, we don't even know if there will be enough horses left to run races through April and May- the track is talking about some pretty severe restrictions on training and racing, increased vet's inspections, etc.


And I might add, even if it is the weather, there is already a storm forming and a 20 percent chance of rain on March 22. So there's that.


We really have no idea of the future here. It could be that they get back to racing, the track is fine, the fatality rate declines, and the new restrictions do not shrink the racehorse population significantly, leaving plenty of decently-sized fields for horseplayers to bet on. That can happen.


But there are all sorts of other futures-- futures involving continued fatalities, futures involving Santa Anita being unable to fill races, futures involving a public backlash against the sport, etc. And everyone who has any sort of long term investment in Santa Anita-- including the Breeders' Cup-- is acutely aware of this.
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:21 PM   #162
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A lot of horses are running up at Golden Gate. Enough for them to write 4 more races last weekend. Who would of ever thought that Golden Gate would have more horse than Santa Anita.
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:23 PM   #163
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A lot of horses are running up at Golden Gate. Enough for them to write 4 more races last weekend. Who would of ever thought that Golden Gate would have more horse than Santa Anita.

Well, they aren't breaking down up there, and they had more rain than we did....


Of course, this argues for a dead horse I have beaten for years-- that we'd be better off with one California racing circuit, including GGF, not two.
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:30 PM   #164
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I'm pretty certain the reason why they did not find anything wrong with the surface is because the damage was already done to some of these horses long ago from either racing or training on a sealed surface. It is like running on concrete with legs built like broomsticks, with little rest in-between, or at least a break from running on such a hard surface. It more likely caused micro-fractures, which led to the undoing on most of these horses. I made this chart (attachment below) to show the correlation:

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File Type: jpg Screen Shot 2019-03-07 at 4.23.04 PM.jpg (310.2 KB, 30 views)
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Old 03-11-2019, 07:28 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Well, they aren't breaking down up there, and they had more rain than we did....


Of course, this argues for a dead horse I have beaten for years-- that we'd be better off with one California racing circuit, including GGF, not two.
Only problem for me is I want to be there when my Horse runs and I live in So Cal and too cheap to travel to be in the winners circle.
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