Why can't the "grinder" win in this game? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

thaskalos · 07-13-2010, 05:48 PM

If you believe Andy Beyer and Steven Crist, hardly any horseplayers are beating this game by "grinding".

Beyer has called the existence of the grinder, who beats the game by hunting for overlays in the win pools...A MYTH! "I don't know of a single player who beats the game by methods like...winning 30% of his win bets at 3-1 odds"...he writes.

Steven Crist says the same thing. Both, however, readily admit that they know more than a few players who beat the game by "swinging for the fences"...relying on 3-4 big wins to make their annual profits.

To me...it's an astounding revelation. I always thought that the best way to beat a "favorable" gambling game, was to make sure that you have an edge over the competition...and then to use that edge to safely "grind-out" your profits over time.

In the poker world, virtually ALL the winning players are grinders. They put in many hours playing in the cash games, for what they consider to be an hourly wage. If you tell them that the "poker tournament" road is the way to go...they laugh, and they tell you that the only long-term winners are to be found in the side games...grinding!

About 6 years ago, I was fortunate enough to share a table, in a Las Vegas casino, with the "late" great David "Chip" Reese...whom I met through a mutual friend.

"I am like the casino." He told me, "Many take their shots at me, but, just like the casino...I have an edge, and I know that I will prevail in the end".

Even "Chip" Reese, the world's best poker player, playing in the world's biggest games...was a grinder!

Let's look at the casino...the biggest, best grinder of them all! The casino takes a relatively small edge, and grinds it into an astronomical amount of money, over the long haul.

The winning blackjack counter, the winning sports bettor...ALL grinders...using their edge to grind out sizeable seasonal profits...over time.

But not the winning horseplayer...according to Beyer and Crist.

In our game, it is supposedly too difficult to be right often enough, to make long-term grinding possible. Instead...we are advised to rely on high-risk exotics, where we can make our yearly profits in a hurry...

It is all nonsense, IMO. You either have an edge over your competition...or you don't.

If you have an edge, not only is grinding possible...it is highly recommended by some of the world's best gamblers.

If you don't have an edge over your competition...all the "swinging for the fences" will not help save you in the end...

46zilzal · 07-13-2010, 05:55 PM

Unless you review about 60 races a day, you won't find enough races to back and the cash outlay to make any profit has to be enormous.

RaceBookJoe · 07-13-2010, 06:05 PM

Up until the early 80's, you could do well at being a grinder, but today i just dont think its possible or even worth it. The main thing is that everything now is much more expensive. rbj

JustRalph · 07-13-2010, 06:07 PM

I have tried playing both ways........recently trying to grind my way through.
I have tried it this whole year....... ROI -.16

Last year playing in my old style: +.12

I made much more money hitting nice long shots. And I spent half the time doing it........and had lots more fun...........

Which way do you think I am going back to..........?

GaryG · 07-13-2010, 06:23 PM

I was a win betting grinder for years, never made any other bets. I switched to the P3 and P4 a few years back due to the depressed odds on my key plays. I will still make a win bet if the odds are 5-1 or more. This game is not getting any easier.....

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 07-13-2010, 06:52 PM

There are still very select win only bettors out there. They wait for the right situation which would include the all-important price factor...then they load up. The difference today, with the simulcast explosion they do not have to wait for days or weeks for the right spot.

I have seen a few in my days and the common thread is PATIENCE. They wait for the public to be wrong, in their opinion, on a race favorite, and/or second choice and they get the best of the percentages with their wager, win or lose. One in particular used to say this is a game of percentages. The only way to beat the take out is to be rewarded when you play.

Can't knock that philosophy, even though I do not have the skill level or patience for that operation.

cj · 07-13-2010, 07:28 PM

I grind away almost every day. It isn't exciting, and I do have a lot of it automated, but in the end the takeout is lower and I think it is easier. I do dabble in exactas, but that is about it...win and exacta.

Robert Goren · 07-13-2010, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GaryG

I was a win betting grinder for years, never made any other bets. I switched to the P3 and P4 a few years back due to the depressed odds on my key plays. I will still make a win bet if the odds are 5-1 or more. This game is not getting any easier.....

Neither is poker.

BELMONT 6-6-09 · 07-13-2010, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I grind away almost every day. It isn't exciting, and I do have a lot of it automated, but in the end the takeout is lower and I think it is easier. I do dabble in exactas, but that is about it...win and exacta.

Interesting point Cj. I had a conversation Sunday with a win bettor who also plays selective exactas with his win wager..but he refuses to use his key horse (win bet) under an exacta. He uses this key horse on top of one or two selections only, and not every race. His reasoning is that he want to vastly improve his win ROI.

thaskalos · 07-13-2010, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Neither is poker.

Not true...there is alot of "loose" money in poker...especially in the no-limit "live" cash-games.

For years, I played on the internet...but for the last 15 months I have been playing live, and I am shocked at the poor level of playing that I see!

I am seriously thinking of doing it full-time...

markgoldie · 07-13-2010, 07:57 PM

The problem with grinding is that enough exposure to the vig eats you up in the end. That being said, clealy the most money being made in the sport today is the grinding that whale groups do. They, of course, get max rebates and although they may only have a minor edge, the churn of playing many races keeps them profitable. Since they must play many events to keep their handle up, what they do is clearly "grinding."

Beyer and Christ are talking about the average bettor. As far as poker players and their grinding- try pitting them against the best in the world and let the house cut the pot 17 or 18% on every hand. Then tell me how much profit they're getting from their grinding.

thaskalos · 07-13-2010, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markgoldie

The problem with grinding is that enough exposure to the vig eats you up in the end. That being said, clealy the most money being made in the sport today is the grinding that whale groups do. They, of course, get max rebates and although they may only have a minor edge, the churn of playing many races keeps them profitable. Since they must play many events to keep their handle up, what they do is clearly "grinding."

Beyer and Christ are talking about the average bettor. As far as poker players and their grinding- try pitting them against the best in the world and let the house cut the pot 17 or 18% on every hand. Then tell me how much profit they're getting from their grinding.

That's not my point Mark...

If the 17%-18% take-out has erased the profits from the grinding...how can we be sure that the profit is still there in the exotics...where the take-out is MUCH higher?

thaskalos · 07-13-2010, 08:20 PM

Not to mention that there is alot of self-deception in the world of the "high-flying" exotics.

A player connects on a pick-6...and he fools himself into thinking that he is a winning player for a long time...

Tom · 07-13-2010, 08:44 PM

The only thing that matters is your records of your bets. Everything else is moot.

GaryG · 07-13-2010, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A player connects on a pick-6...and he fools himself into thinking that he is a winning player for a long time...

You are saying that a P6 win doesn't count?