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Old 09-25-2016, 09:58 PM   #1531
NorCalGreg
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Antone else let this DUCK slip by unnoticed @ Remmie?

only saw a couple @ CDX...one ran 2nd

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Old 09-25-2016, 10:00 PM   #1532
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I'd love to agree with you, but I've run the data on this one for the last 5 years, and the answer is -ROI......It's good for a year here, a certain trainer there, but always regresses to loser status.
Good to know, never had anyone check that against a database.
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Old 09-25-2016, 10:30 PM   #1533
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Antone else let this DUCK slip by unnoticed @ Remmie?

only saw a couple @ CDX...one ran 2nd

-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
Good day overall at RP using top power #. Looks like Texas Chrome is the real deal, thought is was a better deal paying 6.60.

I've just bet there a few times using PV but it looks like Remmie is a good track for the program. I need a new go-to track since nothing in La. is running until Delta in mid october.
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Old 09-26-2016, 06:46 AM   #1534
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Wish it happened enough to make a profitable spot play out of it. Or when "also's" draw in...if anyone has come up with a profitable play---they ain't tellin.
A lot of the old plays that used to work stopped. Off the grass and down in class, betting AE's ,and MTO's when they come off the turf,all don't work anymore, especially at the minor tracks.

Last edited by jk3521; 09-26-2016 at 06:48 AM.
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Old 09-26-2016, 08:02 AM   #1535
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DELAWARE 2nd race

Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
A lot of the old plays that used to work stopped. Off the grass and down in class, betting AE's ,and MTO's when they come off the turf,all don't work anymore, especially at the minor tracks.
Most of those angles have been tested and re-tested, revised until there's no meat left on the bone.
One that still has some value is the sprinter, always flashes speed around the turn--then gives it up completely---today stretching out routing for the first time.

Speaking of angles...anyone remember me mentioning the "3x3" angle?
I'm putting together a program of trainer methods & maneuvers--been working with Steve on this method. It's not as easy to program as it looks.

Think we finally got it nailed down. These spot plays are to alert the user when a "situation" comes up. This one today @ Delaware is classic--

3X3 just means an improving horse--at least 3 running lines, and Speed Ratings--all descending---without winning

The horse today in the 2nd-- FLATTER ME BIG 8-1 ML...is a 3X9! He's vanned over from Parx--will be competing for the lowest purse of his life. His trainer is $$$MONEY in this double-drop situation--and he's going with one of the top riders on the grounds.

The trick is to catch these horses while they still have some value at the windows. Hard to figure what's going on in this trainer's head---why attract attention with the rider?

Either way FLATTER ME BIG is sitting on a win.
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Old 09-26-2016, 08:30 AM   #1536
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Not much else going on today--two other 3x3's @ Parx...I like to see a higher ML though:

1st HAVEANICEWEEKEND 7-2

4TH SIERRA ANCHA 5-1

One ABILITY/POWER play at the greatest track in America THISTLEDOWN!

8TH OHIO CHROME 9-2

I'll jump on the horse @ Del, and bet the TDN horse and the 5-1 shot @ Parx.

Anyone else see anything good today? Post 'em up--NCG
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Old 09-26-2016, 08:53 AM   #1537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
A lot of the old plays that used to work stopped. Off the grass and down in class, betting AE's ,and MTO's when they come off the turf,all don't work anymore, especially at the minor tracks.
These angles never worked, because they're not based on any sort of handicapping logic. Not trying to be condescending, just saying, a lot of so-called handicapping angles are absurd. I remember when people used to bet "beaten favorites", for instance. Even a good angle, for example, I love "blinkers on", still has to be evaluated for each horse.
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Old 09-26-2016, 09:00 AM   #1538
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Most of those angles have been tested and re-tested, revised until there's no meat left on the bone.
One that still has some value is the sprinter, always flashes speed around the turn--then gives it up completely---today stretching out routing for the first time.

Speaking of angles...anyone remember me mentioning the "3x3" angle?
I'm putting together a program of trainer methods & maneuvers--been working with Steve on this method. It's not as easy to program as it looks.

Think we finally got it nailed down. These spot plays are to alert the user when a "situation" comes up. This one today @ Delaware is classic--

3X3 just means an improving horse--at least 3 running lines, and Speed Ratings--all descending---without winning

The horse today in the 2nd-- FLATTER ME BIG 8-1 ML...is a 3X9! He's vanned over from Parx--will be competing for the lowest purse of his life. His trainer is $$$MONEY in this double-drop situation--and he's going with one of the top riders on the grounds.

The trick is to catch these horses while they still have some value at the windows. Hard to figure what's going on in this trainer's head---why attract attention with the rider?

Either way FLATTER ME BIG is sitting on a win.
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When you say why attract attention with the rider, I guess you're assuming that the trainer may want to bet the horse. I'm sure there are betting trainers but my guess is that most trainers just want to get a win, especially when shipping, which, even for a short trip down 95, is still costly. Using the best jockey he can get makes perfect sense.
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Old 09-26-2016, 09:17 AM   #1539
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Antone else let this DUCK slip by unnoticed @ Remmie?
Does your software have the capability of looking at multiple tracks simultaneously and then doing a search for plays that you like, or can you only enter one track at a time?
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Old 09-26-2016, 09:43 AM   #1540
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Originally Posted by pandy
These angles never worked, because they're not based on any sort of handicapping logic. Not trying to be condescending, just saying, a lot of so-called handicapping angles are absurd. I remember when people used to bet "beaten favorites", for instance. Even a good angle, for example, I love "blinkers on", still has to be evaluated for each horse.
Not saying that they were "automatics", just something that when they come up they draw your attention to that horse. Then you take it from there.

Last edited by jk3521; 09-26-2016 at 09:45 AM.
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Old 09-26-2016, 10:06 AM   #1541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
When you say why attract attention with the rider, I guess you're assuming that the trainer may want to bet the horse. I'm sure there are betting trainers but my guess is that most trainers just want to get a win, especially when shipping, which, even for a short trip down 95, is still costly. Using the best jockey he can get makes perfect sense.

The trainer might be trying to dump the horse, might be a cripple, hoping to get the purse money for a win and hope the horse gets claimed. Even though the purses are much lower for Delaware compared to Parx. Claimed for 30k ,now running in a nickle claimer. I wouldn't touch it. The last race for this horse seems an improvement over the previous three, but it might just be an illusion.
There's a certain N.Y. trainer that when he has a cripple he ships to Parx. Sometimes he gets the win and loses the horse and sometimes only gets the horse claimed away. But the horses seldom win or even run again.

Last edited by jk3521; 09-26-2016 at 10:14 AM.
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Old 09-26-2016, 10:29 AM   #1542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
These angles never worked, because they're not based on any sort of handicapping logic. Not trying to be condescending, just saying, a lot of so-called handicapping angles are absurd. I remember when people used to bet "beaten favorites", for instance. Even a good angle, for example, I love "blinkers on", still has to be evaluated for each horse.
Yet many of the top handicappers highlight the Formulator statistics in their selections. Isn't that the same thing? They don't consider each horse as an individual. An angle might work 25% of the time for a trainer, but that's 75% of the time that it doesn't .

Last edited by jk3521; 09-26-2016 at 10:32 AM.
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Old 09-26-2016, 10:47 AM   #1543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
The trainer might be trying to dump the horse, might be a cripple, hoping to get the purse money for a win and hope the horse gets claimed. Even though the purses are much lower for Delaware compared to Parx. Claimed for 30k ,now running in a nickle claimer. I wouldn't touch it. The last race for this horse seems an improvement over the previous three, but it might just be an illusion.
There's a certain N.Y. trainer that when he has a cripple he ships to Parx. Sometimes he gets the win and loses the horse and sometimes only gets the horse claimed away. But the horses seldom win or even run again.

The fact that he got a top jock is a positive sign though. The top jockeys normally have sharp agents who will not put them on a cripple.
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Old 09-26-2016, 11:00 AM   #1544
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The fact that he got a top jock is a positive sign though. The top jockeys normally have sharp agents who will not put them on a cripple.
True, but I'd be surprised if the horse isn't 5/2 or less . I like the as a longshot here.
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Old 09-26-2016, 02:18 PM   #1545
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The fact that he got a top jock is a positive sign though. The top jockeys normally have sharp agents who will not put them on a cripple.
.

That is true but if he rides for a trainer with a lot of good horses, I have seen them get on a bad one now and then to keep all the good mounts. Also when they have to ride a horse they really don't want to, they put forth no effort, just kinda sit there around the track. I'll usually ask them if they want to ride the horse, they will usually tell you.

Last edited by green80; 09-26-2016 at 02:20 PM.
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