Blue Rose Cen

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Agreed. Inspiral ran huge to win the Coronation at Ascot off a similar layoff last year.

Longshot pick for Queen Anne is Lusail; almost won the St. James' Palace last year.

Might have got fried on the pace last time out.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Longshot pick for Queen Anne is Lusail; almost won the St. James' Palace last year.

Might have got fried on the pace last time out.

That'll be it for me betting Ascot:-)

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Longshot pick for Queen Anne is Lusail; almost won the St. James' Palace last year.

Might have got fried on the pace last time out.

And with that...I retire my touting service.

[PhantomOnTour]

Takes her five race win streak to Goodwood today for the Gr1 Nassau Stakes at 1m1/4 for her first try vs older runners (she's getting 8lbs from the 4yr olds) and her first venture outside of France.
Post time is 10:35am Eastern Time

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Takes her five race win streak to Goodwood today for the Gr1 Nassau Stakes at 1m1/4 for her first try vs older runners (she's getting 8lbs from the 4yr olds) and her first venture outside of France.
Post time is 10:35am Eastern Time

She probably has these over a barrel but there's a couple of interesting long shots.

I don't think much of the second choice, Nashwa. All she's done is won this race last year as well as last year's French Oaks. However, she has lost some easy spots this year mostly by racing too keenly & her jock making early moves that sputter out in the final furlong. Gosden wisely cut her back to a mile last out where she got plenty of cover & sliced right through the field. But now he stretches her back out again where she is sure to race too freely early chasing the speedy favorite.

The two long shots:

1) Al Husn - Shadwell Stable seems to be knocking off all sorts of top prizes in Europe with under the radar types as seen in the Prince of Wales', the King George, Prix d'Ispahan & Desert Crown's comeback. In fact, this filly knocked off the 2nd choice Nashwa in one of her embarrassing losses.

2) Caernarfon - it's almost like they are playing games with this filly's form; as a 2yo she was tossed in against colts in a listed stakes, almost upset the apple cart at 25/1 before wheeling back against her own sex at 11/1; this year she was a modest 4th in the 1000 Guineas and then almost upset the apple cart in the Epsom Oaks at 40/1; from that race any number of filly races were at her disposal, but they tossed her in against colts again in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, the winner that day was very good & she followed his slip stream from the back off the pack & finished with a rush. Don't let the 6th place finish fool you, it was about a 7-horse blanket finish for 2nd.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

She probably has these over a barrel but there's a couple of interesting long shots.

I don't think much of the second choice, Nashwa. All she's done is won this race last year as well as last year's French Oaks. However, she has lost some easy spots this year mostly by racing too keenly & her jock making early moves that sputter out in the final furlong. Gosden wisely cut her back to a mile last out where she got plenty of cover & sliced right through the field. But now he stretches her back out again where she is sure to race too freely early chasing the speedy favorite.

The two long shots:

1) Al Husn - Shadwell Stable seems to be knocking off all sorts of top prizes in Europe with under the radar types as seen in the Prince of Wales', the King George, Prix d'Ispahan & Desert Crown's comeback. In fact, this filly knocked off the 2nd choice Nashwa in one of her embarrassing losses.

2) Caernarfon - it's almost like they are playing games with this filly's form; as a 2yo she was tossed in against colts in a listed stakes, almost upset the apple cart at 25/1 before wheeling back against her own sex at 11/1; this year she was a modest 4th in the 1000 Guineas and then almost upset the apple cart in the Epsom Oaks at 40/1; from that race any number of filly races were at her disposal, but they tossed her in against colts again in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, the winner that day was very good & she followed his slip stream from the back off the pack & finished with a rush. Don't let the 6th place finish fool you, it was about a 7-horse blanket finish for 2nd.

Not today - went for an opening in the cutaway but Ryan Moore slammed the door, and she had nowhere to go after that until late, but I think the starch had been taken out of her by then.
Ran 4th

Good call on Al Husn

[the little guy]

Looks like she has tailed off, finishing a mediocre 5th just now in the Prix Vermeille.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Looks like she has tailed off, finishing a mediocre 5th just now in the Prix Vermeille.

Saw that - she did not look good at all.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Looks like she has tailed off, finishing a mediocre 5th just now in the Prix Vermeille.

Reputation may have been overblown, too. Didn't have much of an excuse 2 races back & perhaps today didn't stay 12 furlongs.

The French Oaks has not been particularly productive producing 2 or 3 winners of lower level races. The runner-up has been no more than an also-ran in several subsequent starts.

Also, the horses that beat her in England last time have all run back to get beat as well (granted Nashwa has placed in some major races).

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Reputation may have been overblown, too. Didn't have much of an excuse 2 races back & perhaps today didn't stay 12 furlongs.

The French Oaks has not been particularly productive producing 2 or 3 winners of lower level races. The runner-up has been no more than an also-ran in several subsequent starts.

Also, the horses that beat her in England last time have all run back to get beat as well (granted Nashwa has placed in some major races).

The French fillies have not been particularly strong in recent years.

[PhantomOnTour]

Rebounds today with a win in the Gr1 Prix de L'Opera

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Rebounds today with a win in the Gr1 Prix de L'Opera

Aided by a light field with the Warm Heart, Sea Silk Road, & Free Wind opting for other races. Savedthelastdance is on the shelf.

She did reverse form on the upstart Al Husn (who was already trounced last out against the above group) but the rest were Group 2 horses at best. And one of the French Oaks also-rans finished quite a bit closer to her today.

Kudos for eking out another Group 1 prize but she appears to be running on fumes & is quite vulnerable if they go to the well one more time in the BC.